458
FXUS63 KSGF 132315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms possible this afternoon/evening. Low
  flooding threat.

- Rain diminishing late today then isolated to scattered showers
  and storms return on Tuesday. Dry Tuesday night and
  Wednesday.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A low pressure system will continue to move through the region
today before moving out on Tuesday. In the warm sector ahead of
the low this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered showers
and storms are expected, as we could see a few strong to severe
thunderstorms given MUCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and
0-6km shear of up to 30-35 kts. Overall, expect organization to
be limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1
inch in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph in the very
strongest storms.

Very localized flooding is also possible through this evening,
mainly due to increased soil moisture from recent rainfall
events. Could see localized additional rainfall amounts up to
1-2 inches, but most locations will see less than that.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected on Tuesday, ending from west to east in the
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then
models show additional rounds of upper level energy bringing
rain chances Wednesday night into Sunday. There is a high
degrees of variability in guidance, which lowers confidence,
but the best chances for rain are Wednesday night into Thursday
at 50-70%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

For the 00z TAFS, some convection just northwest of SGF may
affect the area between 00z and 03z, but currently am expecting
mostly dry conditions at JLN/BBG. Do have some light wind and
fog developing overnight. Lower ceilings should develop
overnight with some IFR conditions at all 3 TAF sites. This
should begin to improve into MVFR by the mid morning hours
Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg