Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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723
FXUS63 KABR 192100
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
300 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Low level moisture(Fog) and mild air encompasses most of the CWA
east of the Missouri valley. Will add another dense fog advisory to
the mix as this airmass will remain in place and with diabatic
cooling, visibility is unlikely to improve overnight.

With two weak upper waves transitioning over eastern SD/western MN,
precipitation type still remains difficult to resolve, no less
complicated by temperatures above freezing but ground temperatures
in the mid/upper 20s. Profiles mainly support drizzle initially, and
may in fact still be too shallow through Saturday morning to
generate any precipitation except along eastern upslope areas -
namely the eastern Sisseton hills and around the Leola hills. If we
can get drizzle to form in that shallow a layer, expect QPF to be
light/negligible.

Profiles show deeper saturation Saturday, with now only sporadic
ice introduction as the second wave moves overhead. The result is
more fog and drizzle, with a few hundredths QPF. Temperatures again
will be around or just above the freezing mark so impacts will
probably be minimal.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

A low pressure system will be exiting the region to the east when
the period begins, with some lingering light precipitation possible
across the eastern CWA on Sunday. High pressure will bring dry
conditions to the region Sunday night and Monday, then the models
continue to show slightly different patterns with respect to a
stronger low pressure system set to track across the central plains.
The ECMWF continues to be a bit more southerly with the system,
tracking the low across Kansas vs the GFS which tracks the low
across southern Nebraska. Precipitation amounts will be highly
dependent on this track, so for the time being will stick with model
consensus, which keeps pops in the slight chance/chance category,
with the higher pops across the southern CWA. Temperatures look to
be cold enough that the precipitation will be in the form of snow.
Wrap around light snow showers may linger across the eastern portion
of the CWA into the day Thursday.

Sunday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the 30s.
Will then see a gradual cool down each day to highs in the 20s on
Thursday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the teens to lower 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

KABR/KATY...FG/BR and low CIGs will move back into the terminals
this afternoon and remain in place overnight through Friday
morning. VSBY below 1SM is likely with 1/4SM VSBY possible as
well. CIGs are expected to be below 500ft also.

KPIR/KMBG...VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon. This
evening, BR is likely to develop over central SD, along with areas
of lowered CIGs. Confidence in areal coverage of lower VSBY and
CIGs, as well as how low the VBSY and CIGs get is lower over
central SD compared to eastern areas. For right now, have inserted
some lowered VSBY in BR across these two terminals beginning this
evening and lasting through Friday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for SDZ005>008-010-011-
     017>023-036-037-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TMT



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