Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190237 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
937 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL MONITORING WIND SPEEDS AMID THIS WIND ADVISORY. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A GOOD
10 TO 15 MPH MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. PER THE 00Z KABR UPPER AIR SOUNDING
AND THE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ANYWHERE FROM 1000FT AGL TO 3500F
AGL...STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR MIXING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
DOWN TO THE GROUND OCCASIONALLY. SEEING SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS
DEVELOPING ATTM OUT WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
AT KABR/KATY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASING
AND SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A
FEW HIGH-BASED WEAK RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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