Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

High pressure over the region today will keep conditions dry with
pleasant temperatures for eastern areas. Fairly toasty 850mb temps
still suggest some rather warm highs today over central SD. Also
watching an area of lower clouds sliding south along the Red River
valley which could affect the eastern CWA later this morning.

The surface high slides east on Monday with increasing southerly
winds. A hot air mass builds back into the region and temperatures
will respond by readings climbing back into the 90s to around 100
degrees from the James valley and points west. Hot temperatures will
continue into Tuesday and have increased highs a couple degrees
above SuperBlend. Favorable setup in place and agreed upon fairly
well by models. Synoptic pattern features a surface low just
southwest of the area with impressive thermal ridge over the region.
Breezy southwest winds ahead of the surface trough as well.

As for precipitation, there may be some low-level jet activity late
tonight into early Monday morning across western SD, which may bleed
into the western CWA. Left in slight chances for this. Better bet
for more widespread showers and storms arrives Tuesday afternoon as
a sharp frontal boundary moves into the region. Instability
increases as well, which should set the stage for strong to perhaps
severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Strong/hot ridge aloft is expected to persist across the south
central and southwest conus through the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, energy will continue to move east along the US/Canada
border. One such decent system will push a front into the forecast
area early in the period. This system could bring some rain to the
area before shifting off to the south by mid week. After that the
mid level ridge is expected to build strongly over the western
conus, with a warm/capping EML expected to advect east into the
plains.  This suggests that rain chances are pretty low for the
latter part of the forecast. Temperatures should be right around
normal to start the period, but then will trend above normal for the
last half of the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

It still looks like mostly VFR flying weather over the next 24
hours. That said, watching for the potential for some low (mainly
MVFR) stratus to develop between now and 12Z Sunday across the
eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Perhaps the KATY terminal ends up
briefly on the western edge of these low stratus clouds.




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