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000
FXAK67 PAJK 232332
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN
THE GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS MADE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN PARTICULARLY IN YAKUTAT
WHICH JUST BROKE OUT OF THE CLOUDS A LITTLE AFTER NOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S
TODAY WITH THE SUNNY WEATHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THEN 20 KT
IN MOST PLACES WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CROSS SOUND WHICH HAS A NW SMALL
CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND INCREASING
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW. THE INCREASING CLOUDS IS DUE TO
THE REMAINS OF A FRONT IN THE UPPER TO MID LEVELS MOVING NW FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND COAST MOUNTAINS TOMORROW. THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY DRY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPE. ALONG THE OUTER COAST, THE MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BRINGING MORE OVERCAST SKIES BEFORE
THEY BURN OFF AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW, THE HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM AS THEY WERE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. GOING FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DOWN SOUTH WHILE IN THE NORTH, WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL NOT COME IN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, WILL GET INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

FIRE WEATHER. FUEL CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT IN MOST NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LOCATIONS ACCORDING TO AICC. HOWEVER, WIND HAS BEEN LOW
AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH LOWER THEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT. THE PLACE THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER
IS SKAGWAY WHERE THE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO 24 PERCENT SO FAR
TODAY. DO NOT THINK THAT IT WILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY BUT
IT WILL GET CLOSE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE THE SAME
CONDITIONS BUT DEW POINTS MIGHT BE A BIT HIGHER THEN THEY ARE
TODAY SO DON`T ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG WARNING NEEDED TOMORROW
EITHER.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. DECIDED ON USING
THE NAM AND ECMWF AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DETAIL THAT THEY PROVIDED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.



&&

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ALASKA REMAINS ONE OF PRIMARY
FEATURE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EASTERLY FLOW TRYING TO SPREAD
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. FURTHER WEST AN OLD PARENT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS SPREADING A WEAKENING BAND/WEAK LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THINK THAT THE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST AND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIKELY SHEERING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THERE
IS A SMALL VORTICITY LOBE THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND THAT MAY TRY AND POP A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE AREA LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. IT SORT OF
DEPENDS AMOUNT OF MOIST THAT IS STREAMING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A LOW WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHING
ITSELF SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE RIDGE WILL BE LIMITED TO
PANHANDLE AND COAST MOUNTAIN AREA. THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK EXPECT THE PANHANDLE AREA TO BE ABSORBED INTO A BROAD WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THE PANHANDLE AREA IN THE CENTER OF THE
REGION. AS RESULT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
MOSTLY CLOUDY, LIGHT WINDS AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF RAIN.

CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS IS LOW OTHER THAN THE GENERALITY I
MENTIONED ABOVE, AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL FALL AND THEN HOW
MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE BEHAVING RATHER WELL WITH AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE FACTOR.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

$$

EAL/BEZENEK