Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 292235
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA POSITIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE BANDS OF SHOWERS NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A BAND MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AREA COULD SPAWN A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND TROUGH TO ASSIST
THE LIFT...THUS WILL MENTIONS ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MARINES ZONES
41 AND 42.. POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR EAST CORNER OF THE OFFSHORE
(310) TONIGHT.

WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS FOR MARINE WATERS ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
SECTIONS OF 25 NEAR THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT BEING
SAID SMALL CRAFTS FOR SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SWELLS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON SO CLOUDS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOULD BE EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AT WHITE PASS SUMMIT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. TOTALS SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER A HALF INCH.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DRIFTS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...ABOUT 998 MB...OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT
WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND
HANDLING THE LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
BASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

MODELS DIVERT ON HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND...BUT ABLE TO DRAW A GENERAL CONSENSUS TO BRING THE LOW
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EMBEDDED COLD
CORE WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALASKA INTERIOR WILL BRING COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. USED THE WPC
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF...PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR TO BRING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY INTO THE 20S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/AHN

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