Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222159
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST SURFACE OBS REVEAL LOWERING
CEILINGS OVER THE PANHANDLES AND THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AT CLAYTON.
THESE TRENDS ARE IN LINE WITH NWP WHICH OVERSPREAD DEEP FORCING
EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...BUT QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THIS ASCENT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS. THIS FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF AN INTENSE
150+ MPH UPPER AIR JET NOW DIVING INTO THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT SERIES DEPICT FAVORABLE PROFILES
FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
AROUND 03Z. TODAY/S SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40 DEGREES /WTM/ WILL LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...
BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL BETWEEN 00-06Z...
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SREF 1 INCH
ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT. A SLOWER
TRANSITION TO A SUB-FREEZING COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND THE QUICK SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FORCING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. WILL
MAINTAIN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE BROADER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH.

AS SUCH...FORCING/ASCENT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY
SUNRISE...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THEIR WAKE...WITH HEADLINE MAGNITUDE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD DESPITE
MULTIPLE SHRTWV TROUGHS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. LACKING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
AN UPR TROUGH PASSAGE FRI-SAT. ANOTHER STRONGER UPR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ITS PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS TOMORROW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NW PANHANDLES, WHERE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KDHT INDICATE UP TO 51 KTS AT AROUND 1500FT AGL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEADLINES. DID ADD
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE NW PANHANDLES GIVEN A PREDOMINATELY SNOW
FREE SOURCE REGION IN SERN CO AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST NEAR RECENTLY HARVESTED FIELDS. ALSO ADDED A SMALL AREA
OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE WE THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE BEST TONIGHT.

AFTER A SEASONALLY "NORMAL" DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SANTA MAY NEED THAT
GLASS OF MILK TO COOL OFF ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS H85 MIX DOWN
TECHNIQUES YIELD BREEZY HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST FOLKS.

ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD PASS DRY ON THU NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR FRI BEFORE ANOTHER MODEST WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE NOTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 40 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONGER SW WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                29  38  21  47  26 /  50  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  29  38  22  46  23 /  10  20  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              24  37  18  49  25 /  50  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  32  40  24  48  27 /  40  10   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              28  40  20  48  25 /  60  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  29  40  21  48  25 /  60  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               32  42  26  49  26 /  40  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 25  40  15  47  21 /  60  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  27  39  20  49  22 /  20  20   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  40  21  48  25 /  70  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                30  39  25  46  24 /  10  20  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   28  39  23  46  26 /  30  10   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                34  44  28  48  26 /  20  10   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              36  46  29  50  26 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH.

OK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

10/09





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