Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions expected for the majority of this TAF cycle.
Convection will be the primary aviation concern Thursday
afternoon. Forecast models show scattered convection developing
during the early afternoon hours over the higher terrain before
moving eastward into the terminals. Have inserted PROB30 groups to
each terminal to cover the onset of storms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 502 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

Lots of weather still coming over the next week. Tonight will be
one of the quieter weather days with only an isolated chance for
storms in just the far southeast TX Panhandle. Storms tonight
should be strong to marginally severe. Thursday however looks to
be a different story as upper level flow changes from
southwesterly to northwesterly. All the models are suggesting some
form of MCS or line will move through the Panhandles as a mid-
level shortwave will pass through the area causing instability and
lift. Combining this with good shear, there is a decent chance for
storms tomorrow night to become severe with winds and hail. With
decent low level helicity in addition to these parameters, an
isolated brief tornado couldn`t be ruled out.

By Friday, the upper level support is less and thus will lead to
waiting for storms to come off the mountains. The weekend will see
upper levels turn more into a high pressure dome where storms will
form off the mountains or around the perimeter. This will lead to
a more isolated storm nature for the area. By the beginning of the
work week, southwest flow will return and bring storms into the
western zones. By mid-week, the chances for precip continue to
increase across the area, including a possible frontal passage.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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