Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211725 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR RANGE.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BELIEVE THAT THEY WILL NOT
AFFECT THE AMA OR DHT TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE AMA TAF SITE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST. WILL LEAVE ANY LOWER
CIGS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
14Z AT KGUY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. KAMA IS LEAST LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW VFR BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDHT
AND KAMA.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/15





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