Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 310352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1052 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Starting off the 06Z TAF cycle with low confidence due to ongoing
convection near the terminals. So far, KDHT has been the only
terminal impacted by convection with the majority of the activity
remaining just west of the terminal. By the start of the 06Z TAF
cycle, convection should be exiting KDHT. Have held onto VCTS but
expect that it can be removed within the first few hours of this
cycle. KAMA and KGUY look to have a lesser chance to be impacted by
convection but is expected to have a brief wind shift out of the
west to northwest from outflows. All convection is expected to
dissipate by 09Z. Winds should return to a southerly to southwesterly
direction before increasing in speed during the day tomorrow.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours, but
confidence during the first 6 hours of this TAF cycle is low due to
ongoing convection. Confidence is higher that convection will stay
out of KAMA and KGUY given storm motions across SE Colorado/NE New
Mexico. With that being said, can`t rule out a rogue storm developing
along an outflow boundary to impact these terminals. Have left
mention out of KDHT for the possibility of convection due to low
confidence on timing and storms holding together as they move off the
higher terrain. Expect amendments should any convection look to
impact a terminal.
Outside of impacts from convection, expect winds to decrease
overnight and shift back towards a southerly direction. Tomorrow,
winds will pick up once gain from a south to southwesterly direction
between 15 and 20kt.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 513 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
Isolated storms are expected this evening, mainly affecting NW
sections of the combined Panhandles. Though speed shear is very weak,
modest directional shear could allow for some storm organization and
consequently a few storms could become briefly strong or severe this
evening though widespread severe weather is not expected.
Northwest flow aloft has provided many nights such as last night
with widespread high terrain convection making it into the area. In
fact, it has rained somewhere in the Panhandles every day for past
week and half. However, the upper flow pattern looks to change a bit
as flat ridging encompasses the southern half of the CONUS. The
biggest change to sensible weather will be a slight decrease in the
coverage of evening thunderstorms the next several days. As is common
this time of year, northwest sections of the CWA will have the best
chances for convection and eastern areas the lowest chances.
Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s after our brief
reprieve of highs "only" in the low to mid 90s.