Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1126 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

For 18z TAFs: A surface low near Guymon has been slowly advancing
eastward this morning. Low clouds and fog have been common east
and north of the surface low. A narrow band of IFR/LIFR fog is
wrapping around the low into the eastern half of the OK Panhandle,
with the edge of the dense fog just east of Guymon and northeast
of Spearman. This fog should continue to push southeast and linger
in the eastern OK Panhandle and far northeastern Texas Panhandle
through at least the next few hours. At this time it appears the
TAF sites will remain VFR through the period...except for Guymon
which may see at least MVFR/IFR later tonight when fog redevelops
where winds will be very light over moist soils. For now put MVFR
cigs/vsbys for KGUY but will have to monitor closely for dense fog
between 06z and 16z Friday. Southwest winds will increase mainly
for the Texas Panhandle Friday morning through the end of the
period with gusts up to 30 knots by noon Friday for KAMA and KDHT.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1102 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

Have issued update to graphical forecasts, lowering first period
temperatures by 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit across the eastern half of
the Oklahoma Panhandle and northeast Texas Panhandle.  Persistent
low clouds have increased baroclinicity across this narrow region
just west of surface low pressure center northeast of Guymon.
Associated temperature-related elements have also been recalculated.
Updated text products will be issued shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

VFR conditions to prevail for the duration of the 12Z TAF cycle. The
only exception is KGUY which might see MVFR to IFR ceilings as the
surface low moves southward. Should these lower ceilings materialize
it should be brief. Surface winds will remain light during the
daytime and overnight hours while rotating around the dial for the
northern TAF sites while KAMA stays out of either a southwest to west
direction. Towards the end of this TAF cycle, surface winds will
greatly increase at KAMA as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to an approaching lee side low. Winds are expected to
continue to increase past the end of this TAF cycle.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

Weak cold front associated with a closed low continues to work
its way into the Panhandles. Current winds out of the south, but
expect the northwestern OK Panhandle to get a wind shift out of the
north, with other areas to follow. This will exit quick enough with
ridging behind it to allow for a warmer temperatures this afternoon.
Highs expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today.

Friday a shortwave trough will push through the Panhandles and will
kick up the winds with near advisory winds across the western and
southern Panhandles.  It looks like we will be in the dry slot
region and do not have any pops for the time being on Friday.
Lowering heights with the shortwave will make for a cooler Friday
through the weekend.  This is due to an open trough behind the
shortwave that will move across central Texas.  Cloud coverage will
increase on Saturday and have kept the pops going for the day and
have slightly increased them into the evening. GFS model still
trying to develop a closed low over the Panhandles Saturday evening,
with return flow to the northern TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle
as well.  Precipitation is expected to start off as rain, but may
change to snow, especially behind the low with the return flow.
However, do not anticipate that snowfall amounts will be

Sunday morning dry cool northwest flow will take place with
temperatures in the 50s.  By Monday high pressure will be over the
area and temperatures will be back to the mid 50s to lower 60s. The
next weather system is expected to impact the area on Tuesday as
another shortwave trough approaches.  As heights will fall
significantly with this system, right now there is a slight chance
of snow, mainly across the OK Panhandle on Tuesday.  Wind could be
another issue as one model has the area in the dry slot.  Cooler air
will settle in for Wednesday as highs will only be in the upper 30s
to lower 40s.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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