Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271128
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Wind
speeds will pick up to around 25 knots from the south with gusts
closer to 35 or 40 knots through the afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy for a
majority of the period with tranquil weather conditions expected.
Some VCSH conditions are possible around KGUY between 00Z and 06Z
Friday as some moisture moves southeast near that TAF site.
Otherwise, some mid level and high clouds will further build into
the region as we get closer to the end of the TAF period with VFR
conditions continuing through 12Z.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Interesting forecast for the panhandles through the weekend. We have
anything from thunderstorms today and Friday to snow over the
weekend.

A surface low will intensify along the lee-side of the Rockies today
as height falls and a strong upper level jet move across the
southern Rockies. The southwest Texas Panhandle will just meet wind
advisory criteria (35 mph sustained) this afternoon. So have gone
ahead and issued a wind advisory for Oldham and Deaf Smith counties.
There may be just enough low level moisture that returns across the
northeast CWA ahead of the surface trough to produce a few
thunderstorms. A storm or two could become severe with damaging
winds the main threat given the inverted "V" sounding.

On Friday, a cold front may be the focus for more thunderstorms,
especially across the northwest half of the CWA.  The cold front
will then push into the southeast Texas Panhandle overnight. The
front will encounter a more unstable atmosphere in this area, so
severe thunderstorms with large hail will be possible.

Models are in pretty good agreement on the track of the strong storm
system that will affect the Panhandles this weekend. The upper level
low is expected to intensify and cutoff over the 4-corners. This low
is the expected to dive southeast to east central New Mexico by mid
day Saturday and then it is expected to track northeast across the
Texas Panhandle Saturday night and then it is expected to move into
south central Kansas by mid day Sunday.

Rain is expected to pick up Saturday ahead of this low. Some snow
will likely mix in with the rain across the northwest CWA during the
day on Saturday. As the cold core of the upper low tracks across the
panhandles Saturday night, most of the rain will switch over to snow
from northwest to southeast. Only the far southeast Texas Panhandle
will have just rain.  At this point it looks like the best chances
for accumulating snow will be along and northwest of a line from
Lipscomb, TX to Amarillo TX. Greater than 3 inches of snow will be
possible just to the northwest of the track of the low across the
northwest quarter of the Panhandles, mainly northwest of a line from
Guymon, OK to Dumas, TX to Adrian, TX. This will be an interesting
winter storm as there should be plenty of moisture with this very
dynamic system and there should be plenty of cold air. There is the
possibility that greater than 6 inches of snow could fall near the
New Mexico and Colorado state lines in the far northwest part of our
CWA.

As the upper level low exits our area on Sunday the rain and snow
will decrease from west to east.

A weak short wave trough will move across the area Tuesday night in
the northwest flow aloft. This could bring some showers to the area.
Otherwise, the forecast will remain dry after our weekend system.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham.

OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15



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