Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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948
FXUS64 KAMA 220013 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
713 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Have made a minor change to near-term graphical forecasts.  Have
delayed clearing across southern half of forecast area based on
satellite trends.  Have included isolated sprinkles across this
same area this evening where weak echoes have persisted.  Do not
expect measurable rain, but windshield wipers will have to be used
occasionally at some locations.  Have also lowered dewpoints in
northern sections, and made corresponding relative humidity and
apparent temperature adjustments.  Updated text products will be
issued shortly.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Cold front has pushed well south of all terminals.  North surface
winds diminish during the early evening and will trend to
northwest by midnight.  Mid-level clouds currently overhead will
dissipate tonight as downward motions prevail following passage of
sharp mid-level trof.  Clear sky expected on Sunday with
southwest surface winds resuming for the afternoon as next surface
trof develops over eastern New Mexico.  No visibility
restrictions expected.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high over northwest Utah is expected to move and expand
southeast into eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles by
sunrise Sunday morning. The airmass associated with this high has
dew points in the teens and 20s.  Therefore, if this air mass
spreads across our area, then this dry air and clear skies could
allow for excellent radiational cooling tonight.  Have gone ahead
and issued a Freeze Warning for the western and central Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle with a Frost Advisory
south and east of the warning to include the southwest, central, and
northeast Texas Panhandle and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.

The Panhandles will be in a northwest flow aloft as a low pressure
develops over the eastern U.S. and high pressure builds across the
western U.S.  This northwest flow will bring an occasional cold
front through the Panhandles this week.

But, the strongest cold front is expected to move through the region
Thursday or Thursday night. Some freezing temperatures along with
some possible light winter precipitation may move in behind this
front, but the models do not agree on how cold this airmass will be
and they do not agree on the precipitation chances.  So for now have
kept pops low.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...
     Hansford...Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

3/29



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