Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241740
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.