Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 161449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
949 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

High pressure will provide the region with dry seasonable weather
today. An approaching frontal complex will bring rain Tuesday,
with an initial period of freezing rain expected, especially in
the morning. Rain showers will last into Wednesday.


9 am update...

Bumped up the max temps to around 40 which is what guidance has.
With full sun, warm air advection, and little snow cover
temperatures should be well above freezing.

4 am update... A stubborn lake-effect cloud band continues to
extend off the east end of Lake Ontario early this morning.
However, these clouds are lifting slowly northward, as the low-
level flow backs into the southwest, and they should be out of the
forecast area before sunrise.

Sunny skies through at least early afternoon, should give way to
thickening mid and higher-level cloudiness thereafter, with the
leading edge of these thicker clouds coming through the Ohio
Valley and western PA at this time. The commencement of low-level
warm advection today will help push this afternoon`s highs into
the mid-upper 30s across most of the region.

Tonight-Tuesday, we`re keying in on the development of patchy
light precipitation late tonight, becoming steadier and more
widespread on Tuesday. Rapid warming in the 925-850 mb layer
tonight-Tuesday morning should preclude any snowfall. However,
residual surface-based cold air will bring the likelihood of
freezing rain, with the greatest longevity of freezing rain
anticipated in our far eastern zones, where boundary layer air
cold air will be toughest to dislodge. Freezing rain advisories
have been posted for all of CNY/NEPA. Patchy freezing rain will
start first in the Finger Lakes region late tonight, then
spreading eastward through early Tuesday. Areas of freezing rain
could persist in our far eastern zones into Tuesday evening.

Highs by later Tuesday should range from near freezing in colder
areas of the Tug Hill region, the Mohawk Valley, and the
Catskills, to up near 40 degrees across portions of the Finger
Lakes region.


430 AM EST Update...
Showers will continue to engulf the region as the low pressure
system continues to propagate along the great lakes Tuesday night.
For the most part, most regions now will see rain as their form of
precip. However, the Southern Tug Hill Plateau, Western Catskills
and the Pocono Mountain Region may still see freezing rain as this
area typically holds on to pockets of freezing air at the sfc
longer than the rest of the region. The sfc low will slowly drift
across NY Tuesday night and the chance for showers will prevail
through the night as the uppr lvl trough continues to dynamically
influence the region. The uppr lvl trough will move across the
region on Wed and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will prevail by Wed
night. This will allow some drier air at mid-lvls and weak CAA to
move into the region. This dry air may result in drizzle over the
region Wed night/Thurs morning. Eventually enough CAA will occur
by Thurs morning to support snow growth, thus lingering showers
may transition over to snow.


9 am update...
Changes were made on the mid shift to include chances for mixed
precip Friday to Saturday. Models agreeing now on a weak front
moving through. Precipitation will be mostly rain showers and
light amounts.

430 AM EST Update...
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. For
more information please read the previous forecast discussion

Previous forecast discussion...
3 pm update...
Some lingering rain and snow showers are possible Thursday. Weak
forcing with short waves dropping southeast into the upper level
trough over New England. Air mass cools to slightly negative at
850mb but not cold enough for lake effect. Amounts will be light.

Models differ on the weekend solutions. Going with the previous
forecast and WPC which was dry and mild. High pressure over the
northeast U.S. and eastern Canada. High temperatures in the 40s
and lows around 30.


For the most part, VFR/unrestricted conditions are expected across
our CNY/NEPA terminal sites through 12z Tuesday.

During the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, patchy light freezing rain is
expected to develop, along with the potential for MVFR ceilings,
particularly at KELM, KITH, KBGM, and KAVP.


Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain, perhaps
starting as freezing rain early Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.


PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for
     Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ038.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for
     Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ015>017-022>025-055.


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