Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
615 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN






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