Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A
CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG
NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA
LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING
WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

BEST 50A HGT FALLS WORK INTO THE FCST AREA 18-00Z AS MAIN TROF
AXIS APRCHS. NAM SHOWS CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500 J/KG RNG TDA WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACRS CNTRL NY. HOWEVER..THE GFS DOES
SHOW CAPES ARND 500 J/KG LATE TDA AT AVP WHERE LOW LVL THERMAL RDG
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. NOT A CLEAR CUT SCENARIO TDA...SVR WX
CHECKLIST INDICATED POTNL FOR A FEW BKN LINES WITH ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL BUT NO SIG SVR. RUC SUGGESTS PRE-FNTL TROF WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTN. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM12 IS OVERDONE WITH
IT`S DEPICTION OF CONVECTION LATE TDA ACRS CNTRL NY AND LEANED
MORE TWDS THE GFS/LCL WRF/RUC DEPICTION.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
UL TROF WL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST BY WED MRNG AND HIPRES AT
BOTH SFC AND ALOFT WL BE BUILDING IN. H5 RIDGE APPCHG 590 HEIGHTS
WL BE COMMON THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. MED RANGE MODELS ALONG
WITH GFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT BUT
DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS CAN BE FOUND. THE 00Z EC INDICATES A
WEAKNESS OVR THE TN/OH VLYS WHILE THE GFS/CMC KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HV ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER ON OUR
DRY STRETCH OF WX AS 1030MB SFC HIGH SITS OVR NERN U.S. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES RUN ARND 565DM THROUGHOUT THE PD. WITH H5 HEIGHTS
RUNNING 1-2 SD ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT TEMPS WL
RUN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS ARND 50.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHRA/TSRA WORK THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z DEPENDING ON TERMINAL.
EXPECT SCTD-BKN VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT.

FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT MVFR STRATO-CU TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WNW FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN





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