Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271559

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1159 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Wintry mix will finish changing to rain this afternoon as a low
pressure system moves through the region. The weather pattern
will remain generally unsettled with fluctuating temperatures
through the weekend.


1200 PM Update...
Temperatures are still hovering around freezing in Wayne-Pike
Counties, and slightly below in eastern Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan
Counties. In coordination with surrounding offices I extended the
advisory for lingering effects (and included Otsego County) until
8 PM for the northeastern set of zones, and until 2 PM for Wayne-
Pike which should be above freezing by then.

Previous discussion...
At 915 AM...Snow continues on northeastern edge of precipitation
shield where evaporational cooling and colder temperatures in
general are supporting it. However, as evidenced by 850mb
temperatures in RAP and other models, warm low level jet is
surging warm wedge of air aloft which is changing snow to rain
from southwest to northeast as expected. Shallow cold air
underneath is still keeping temperatures at higher elevations near
or even slightly below freezing. Ground temperatures are plenty
warm to prevent icing for most roadways, yet elevated surfaces and
tree branches may accrete light ice. Emergency management from
earlier even reported that in the high terrain of southwest
Steuben County was getting enough ice and wind for twigs/small
branches to come down. At this hour, observed and expected
temperatures at higher elevations for counties roughly along and
east of I-81 will continue to support light icing on elevated
surfaces. Thus in addition to the ongoing winter weather advisory
for Pike- Sullivan-Delaware-Wayne counties, in the very near term
we just put out of Special Weather Statement to cover patchy ice
at higher elevations for Broome- Chenango-Madison- Otsego-
Susquehanna for the next couple hours or so. Roadways will just be
wet, though surfaces not in contact with the ground including
bridges/overpasses at higher elevations, could have patchy ice.

Heading into tonight, vigorous upper wave associated with the
system moves through with surface low transferring its energy
from lower lakes to New England. Steadier and heavier precip winds
down west to east through the mid to late evening with showers
lingering on the backside of the low overnight enhanced by the
lake. Some wet snow may mix in again overnight as temps drop into
the 30s however limiting factor will be that most of the moisture
will become confined to below the dendritic zone.

Low over New England Fri morning will drift eastward and allow
brief ridging into the area later Fri into Sat. Some leftover
showers possible early Fri in the NW flow with drying Fri


Fri ngt looks quiet and dry under Hipres. Wrm fnt aprch for ltr
Sat. With the rather flat wly flow and limited moisture, best
chance for pcpn will remain north of the area Sat nearer the upr
jet. Temps will rebound Sat aftn to abv nrml lvls.


430 AM major chgs to the long term as a flat rdg dvlps
over the area. Fcst area will be on the nrn edge of the rdg bring
various chances for rain but with gnrly abv nrml temps. Prvs disc
conts blo.

330 PM Update...
Frequency of systems will back off a bit in the long term period,
though temperatures will still fluctuate.

Surface ridge Friday evening will quickly collapse in favor of
another small low pressure system which will brush through
Saturday. This northern stream low will track from Lake Superior
Friday night, across Ontario to southern Quebec on Saturday.
Models are in better agreement now on sending its trailing cold
front decidedly through our region Saturday. Upper support and
moisture availability will be better closer to the low itself, and
thus best shower coverage will occur in Central New York. That
being said, with the front passing through the whole area,
everyone including Northeast PA will see at least a chance of
showers. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front, will allow
temperatures to actually go up late Friday night, preventing other
precipitation types besides rain as the system moves in Saturday
morning. Then during the day Saturday, temperatures will reach
mid 50s to near 60 before the cold front passes.

Models are also in better agreement now on secondary wave along
the front sunday being mainly south of the area, so I have
followed the model superblend trend of only low chances for rain
showers; and what little I have for that, mainly south of the
Twin Tiers.

Pattern remains on the progressive side this coming week, though
with modest height rises, and with low tracks further north in
Canada. Temperatures will trend from slightly below climatology
Sunday-Monday, to near normal Midweek. Sometime around Wednesday,
a weak front may pass through but with little moisture and thus
very iffy on rain chances.


Messy system will continue to affect the area today with restrictions.
For KITH/KBGM/KSYR/KRME, IFR visbys likely into this morning with
snow and even the chance for a little sleet or freezing
rain...mainly for KBGM. Remaining sites should be mainly MVFR with
mostly rain. By afternoon, most sites should be MVFR as precip
will have changed over to rain however expect BGM at the hilltop
to remain IFR in lower cigs/visbys

Precip winds down to a few showers west to east this evening with
IFR cigs likely by overnight for all sites except KAVP/KELM.

Winds E/SE 10-15 gusting to around 20 knots today. Expect LLWS to
be an issue today for KELM/KAVP. Winds shift around to W/SW
tonight on the backside of low.


Friday/Saturday/Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain

Monday...Mainly VFR.


PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ046-


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