Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 202005
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
405 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms moving ahead of a cold front will move through the
area this afternoon. Clearing skies this evening will result in
valley fog developing once again. High pressure and drier air
will return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 PM update...
Storms have moved out of the northwest counties so have
cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch. Updated the grids to
better resemble the current weather. After this goes through it
should be dry. Best severe with the MCV is on the leading south
and southeast edges. Quick inch of rain in half an hour leading
to flash flooding.

previous discussion...
MCC dropping into western NY this afternoon will march se and
spread convection over the area. Mid level dry punch and good
shear will likely help develop areas of severe weather with the
cells. PWAT`s lower so flooding risk is less, but antecedent
conditions are making the area very vulnerable so heavy amounts
of rain in a short time will need to be watched.

High pressure builds in for tonight, and low level moisture will
likely result in valley fog development once again. High
pressure and drier air returns for Friday into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
215 pm update...
Should be a fairly active weekend with large scale synoptic pattern
and a cool nwly flow in place. A series of embedded short waves will
rotate around the base of the upper trough and act in phase with
multiple surface features to produce periods of showers and
thunderstorms.

The early part of Saturday looks dry as high pressure shifts off to
the east but continues to influence the area with quiet weather. The
pattern changes later in the day. There are some differences in the
timing and placement of the onset of upper short waves expected to
move in later in the day on Saturday but the overall trend should be
a more active pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
through Sunday. There may be periods of heavy rain with any of these
storms.

Temperatures will remain mild with highs right around 80 and
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 am update...
A final upper trough will roll through the region Sunday night and
Monday morning with precipitation lasting through the day Monday.
Weak ridging will develop behind this trough and allow conditions to
dry out. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with  highs in
the 70s and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MCC will bring a cluster of convection through much of the
forecast area this afternoon bringing thunder and brief MVFR
conditions. Clearing after the storms will result in some fog
development overnight, especially at ELM where IFR conditions
are likely. VFR returns Friday with drier air under high
pressure.

Outlook...


Saturday through Monday...Chance of showers/storms and
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DGM


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