Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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537
FXUS61 KBGM 091147
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. SOME MVFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
KSYR AND KRME IN LIGHT SNOW, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DRY, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM KITH
SOUTH.

LATER TODAY, AFTER 20Z, A NEW AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CIGS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO 0Z. SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXZPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN



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