Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 101519
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1019 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue
today, especially in Central New York, but additional amounts will
be light. It will remain cold through the weekend. A storm system
will impact the region with a few to several inches of snow late
Sunday into Monday, likely causing travel difficulties. Some
wintry mix is also possible Monday as the system exits.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update...

Minor changes. snow showers not very strong now. Best srn Steuben
to Bradford. Usual areas in the north mostly flurries for now.
Still expect some better widespread snow showers this afternoon
there. Amounts will be light and mostly under an inch today.
In the northeast temperatures colder than expected and 5 to 15
degrees. May need to lower min temps tonight with the fresh fluffy
snow. Any clearing which is expected will cause temperatures to
fall quickly. The far south has risen to close to max temps even
with the clouds. Will need to adjust up there.

315 AM Update...
Minor lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue, but
additional accumulations will be light, and thus we were able to
cancel the Lake Effect Snow Advisory that had been in effect for
portions of Central New York.

Moisture has become quite shallow this morning, and there is also
some shear within the boundary layer as a weak shortwave
approaches. The effects of these factors are definitely showing
with the loss of organization and magnitude of the lingering lake
effect snow showers. Parts of Central New York to the tip of
Northeast Pennsylvania will be limited to a less than an inch of
additional dry fluff this morning for most locations.

Once the weak shortwave zips through the region, flow will
actually back more westerly, while low level lapse rates will
steepen a bit through about 10 kft agl. This should actually allow
the lake effect bands to enhance again while also greatly increasing
inland extent. The Lake Erie bands should have no problem
stretching across the Twin Tiers to Western Catskills this
afternoon into early evening; meanwhile the Lake Ontario moisture
will lift from roughly Syracuse-Norwich-Cooperstown midday to
north of the Thruway by evening. Despite the enhancement to the
lake effect snow, the bands will be transient so overall snow
amounts will not be all that much. However, directly under the
bands themselves a quick inch or so will be possible this
afternoon through early evening, along with visibility perhaps
briefly under a mile at times.

Temperatures early this morning are mainly upper teens to mid 20s,
though Rome is only 12 degrees as of 3 am. With shortwave passage,
cold air advection in the lower levels will hold temperatures back
from warming much today, with highs of 20s to near 30. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the 15 to 20 degrees range, though big
breaks in the cloud cover could cause quick radiational cooling
for some spots this evening which will make temperature details
tricky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Shrt wv over the wrn Great Lakes early Sunday grabs Gulf moisture
as it pushes ewrd. Cold and dry air in place from a New Eng hipres
will hold off the pcpn until late in the day. Snow will break out
from west to east ltr Sun aftn into Sun evening. Profile early on
plenty cold enough for snow and with good moisture inflow, decent
uvm will result in light to mod snow into early mon mrng. Models
disagree on the amt of warm air that makes it into the fcst area
with the NAM the most aggressive and the Canadian the coldest.
GFS/ECMWF a rsnbl compromise with some mixed pcpn over nepa by 12z
Mon. With the lack of a good cold air damming signature, it looks
like any frzg rain will be limited so xpct a pretty straight
forward chg over from rain to snow, where it occurs.

In general, 24 hr snow ttls in the 3 to 6 inch range xpctd, with
then highest amts over the higher terrain of the wrn Catskills
which benefits from better lift, and in nrn Oneida where it
remains coldest.

Otrw, some lgt mixed pcpn Mon ahd of the cold fnt flwd by lake
effect snow showers Mon ngt in the caa off the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
320 AM update...ltl chg to the xtndd fcst. Did adjust the pops and
temps according to latest model runs and better collaboration. In
gnrl, looks like a cold pd with a deep upper low over se Canada
and long fetch WNW flow into the area from the Arctic. Brrr...
Prvs disc conts blo.

330 PM update...
The big event this period is the cold outbreak the end of the
week. Models do not agree on the scenario for Wednesday. some have
a light snowfall with a surface low moving east into the mid
Atlantic states. This passes then the upper level trough drops
southeast. Deep northwest flow of arctic air into the area will
set up a long period of lake effect snow. Highs around 20 Thursday
and Friday with lows 5 to 15.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow is not as organized compared to earlier yet is
still hanging on. Ceilings today will spend most of the time
teetering between high end MVFR and VFR. However, Lake Erie snow
shower band will likely stretch into the Southern Tier of NY to
cause IFR VIS for KBGM-KITH-KELM at times late morning through
afternoon; see TAFs for specifics. KAVP also to get non-
restrictive flurries this morning, then CIG will dip into high end
MVFR for a time this afternoon before scattering out. Lake
Ontario also to produce snow showers with IFR VIS at times for
KSYR 15Z-19Z, but it will have a tougher time reaching KRME and
thus restrictions beyond high end MVFR are not likely. Light
northwest winds early this morning, will gradually back to the
west or west- southwest 5-10 knots during the day, then light
southwest tonight.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday Morning...Mainly VFR.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Widespread restrictions likely
developing in snow as system moves through. Wintry mix or light
rain also may show up for some terminals Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions still possible in lingering
lower ceilings and snow showers Tuesday, especially our central
NY terminals. Better chance of snow and restrictions Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM/TAC
AVIATION...MDP



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