Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252359
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
759 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this evening and end the
showers. This front will also bring drier air and quiet weather
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...Severe thunderstorm watch cancelled for area as
the last of lingering showers will exit NE PA and SE NY zones within
the next hour or two. A few additional weaker showers/storms may
effect mainly central NY this evening as actual front moves across
but nothing severe expected. Adjusted POP/WX/sky/T/Td grids based
on these latest conditions and trends.

Late tonight dry with clearing skies and light winds. With this
rain valley fog likely across south central NY and ne PA. Boundary
layer winds drop to 10 to 15 kts. Low temps in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM Update...

High pressure over the Midwest will build east over our region
Tuesday and last through Wednesday. Dry air returns with partly
cloudy to clear skies. Highs mostly in the 80s with lows upper 50s
to mid 60s.

Thursday the high moves east into New England while moisture
returns. A weak upper level trough and short wave drops towards
the CWA. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will most likely be
in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
For Thursday night and Friday, the EURO, GFS and CMC all indicate
a surface wave associated with an upper level short wave impacting
NY and PA. The EURO and CMC are most aggressive and have a nice
shot of rain for our drought stricken areas in central NY. The GFS
is much farther south and east and drier. For now went with
superblend POPs for these time periods. Then for Friday through
Sunday models diverge with the EURO showing the best potential for
showers and thunderstorms holding the main upper level wave back
to the west with a more well defined moist southerly flow into
the weekend over our area. The GFS and CMC show a weaker upper short
wave to the west of our area and less organized convective
potential. So for now have 30-40 chance POPS through the weekend
as per superblend.

Leaned heavily on superblend and collaborated grids with
neighboring WFOs for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main concern will be valley fog for tonight due to today`s rain
with dew points still fairly high and skies clearing. Expect IFR
conditions due to visbys by around 06z for KELM with visibilities
likely down to a half mile at times by later tonight. Also expect
MVFR visbys for KAVP by the overnight with periods of IFR also
possible here by late. For KITH, also potential for MVFR visbys
in light fog by late tonight. Elsewhere expect mainly VFR.

For Tuesday, expect all sites to go to VFR by mid morning.

Winds decrease to light westerly tonight then increase to W-NW
Tuesday around 10 knots with some higher gusts.


OUTLOOK...

Tue night to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu-Sat...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN



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