Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291137
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
637 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Generally weak flow at h500 resulting in weak ventilation and
another morning of foggy conditions across western and portions of
central North Dakota. Fog is more widespread and dense across teh
northwest where teh current dense fog advisory remains in effect
until 10 am CDT. Most of the rain has diminished to a small area
north central. Current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Dense fog is once again an issue across portions of the area.
Subsidence aloft behind a departing wave, ample low-level
moisture and weak surface flow is producing dense fog across
northwest North Dakota. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
this area through 10 AM.

Most of the area should remain dry today, with the exception of
far north central North Dakota where there is a chance of rain as
another wave is expected to move through this afternoon.

Otherwise...a warm day is expected with readings in the mid 60s
for most locations that have little to no snow remaining.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

An active pattern continues into the long term part of the
forecast. However, with a split flow pattern the majority of the
energy either moves north of the forecast area or well to our
south. We are expecting an upper level trough to traverse the area
late Thursday into early Saturday. This is expected to produce
scattered showers with generally light amounts. Precipitation may
fall as a mix of rain and snow Friday night into Saturday morning
across the northwest and north central. Another system moves into
the plains early to mid week, next week. There is still a lot of
model uncertainty with this system and will it will need to be
watched. But at this time a southern track is favored. Once this
system passes by, upper level ridging builds over the region with
a warm- up towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Main hazard to aviation will be widespread fog across western
North Dakota this Wednesday morning. This will result in VLIFR at
KISN,KDIK, and KJMS through 14z. Conditions improving to VFR
after 16z. Remainder of the forecast sites will be VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA


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