Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED EASTERN MONTANA AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTHWEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT SOME AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE BORDER OF MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST/NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD MIX-OUT DAY...AND AS SURFACE
LINKS ALOFT TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.
EXPECTING LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH 20 TO 25 PERCENT VALUES WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT NOON CDT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS DUE TIMING AND AREAL UNCERTAINTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA



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