Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
622 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Issued at 614 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Narrow band of low VFR clouds is tracking along the northern tier
counties of northwest ND early this morning. Mesoscale models not
really picking up on this. Bumped up sky cover a bit this morning
northwest into the north central. Otherwise no significant changes
to the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Wind chill advisory for the entire CWA remains on track with
latest wind chills generally ranging from -20F to -30F over most
of the region.

On the larger scale, GOES-16 WV imagery and global model
initializations shows broad upper level trough over the western
US with a deep surge of moisture extending from the Gulf of Mexico
through the Great Lakes region. This pattern leaves our region in
a west/southwest flow initially which will support a slight
moderation in temperatures today as surface high drifts to Iowa
with return flow setting up across the state. Highs in the teens
expected most areas, while closer to 10F north. Temperatures
tonight also expected to moderate with lows generally 0 to 10

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Western CONUS trough deepens as strong jet streak near the Pac NW
on Thursday morning works down the back side, while shortwave
ejects in southwest flow toward our region. Some differences in
model solutions with NAM showing better large scale forcing as
indicated by Q-vector convergence with a somewhat sharper
shortwave compared to the GFS. Current forecast strikes a balance
between solutions with chance to likely pops introduced across our
southeast Thursday afternoon through evening. With this fast
moving wave, any accumulations would be limited.

With broad cyclonic flow remaining in place into the weekend,
another shortwave may brush our south and east on Saturday, but
only enough to warrant slight chance pops at this time as main
surface low currently forecast to track well south, closer to
southern Minnesota and Iowa. With regard to temperatures, expect
a slight warming trend with highs into the mid/upper 20s by
Saturday, continuing into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Band of low VFR clouds tracking across northern ND may hold
together long enough to make into KMOT. For now just added a
scattered layer at 5kft. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected
today and this evening. A southerly flow brings increasing
moisture into KDIK and KBIS toward the end of the forecast period.
Mesoscale model blend brings a scattered layer around 2kft to
KBIS around 10Z Thursday. Later shifts will need to monitor.


Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for



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