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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS.

SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-94. SNOW SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BELOW ZERO. ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SKY COVER.
CLEARED OUT THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH A LITTLE SOONER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AS THE FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS AND DENDRITIC OMEGA ARE DECREASING AS
EXPECTED...MARKING A SLOW DECLINE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2330 UTC ARE ALIGNED WELL WITH THE 20
THROUGH 22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...AND WILL WEIGH HEAVILY UPON THEIR
SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM CENTER
THROUGH BISMARCK...NEW SALEM...FLASHER...CARSON AND MOTT THROUGH
03 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS.
WHILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER...PEAK INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MAIN ISSUED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. THEN WIND CHILLS BECOME A CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL WHERE UP TO 3
INCHES MAY FALL BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THIS EVENING THEN SNOW WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG AN H300 JET REGION WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS FOLLOW
THE JET DYNAMICS AND FORM A SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. BELIEVE THERE
WILL ANOTHER 3 INCH BAND OF SNOW FROM BOWMAN NORTHEAST TO BISMARCK.
THE MOST RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER WILL BE FOUND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE
THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK THIS EVENING SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH SUPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT
TO ICE. THUS THERE WILL BE GOOD SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE LIMITED QPF
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS 25
TO 30 BELOW EXTENDING FROM BOTTINEAU COUNTY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
STUTSMAN COUNTY. TOWNS INCLUDED IN THIS AREA INCLUDE
BOTTINEAU...RUGBY... HARVEY AND JAMESTOWN.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL END. SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE BOT COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR THE EARLY AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO
BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THOUGHTS AS THIS WILL BE A BRIEF/MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AND AFTERNOON
IN THE CENTRAL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BASICALLY
PUTS A CAP ON RISING TEMPERATURES. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIGHT
WITH AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FOR TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION REMAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE MAIN SNOW AXIS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE NAM/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A WEAKER SCENARIO BUT
HAVE THIS AREA FARTHER EAST AS WELL. QPF TODAY VERSUS THE LAST FEW
RUNS HAVE LOWERED QUITE A BIT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW MORE
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS FURTHER SOUTH.
BOTH MODELS DEPICT DECENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THIS
PERIOD AND SNOW WOULD BE THE LIKELY CANDIDATE IN THE NORTH. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN/AROUND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KDIK AND KBIS THROUGH
ABOUT 07-09 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ