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000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS