National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KBIS 111450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 847 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

CORRECTION TO CODING FOR ZONES IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING
IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ABOVE CRITERIA THIS MORNING THERE. WILL
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY SOUTHWEST AND LEAVE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING
IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ABOVE CRITERIA THIS MORNING THERE. WILL
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY SOUTHWEST AND LEAVE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

UPDATE FOR EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER TRENDS. THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK AS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18 UTC. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO
BE SHRUNK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE 7 AND 10 AM CST
UPDATES AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM
FROM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS A IMPULSE RAPIDLY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND WAS UTILIZED
FOR MOST FORECAST FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW EVENTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20S. HOWEVER...THIS WARM-UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. 2-DAY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH GENERAL
1-2 INCH AMOUNTS BASED ON WPC QPF...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A MODEST WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 847 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT IN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY KISN-KDIK-KBIS. KMOT-KJMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 3 THOUSAND AGL AND 3 MILES IN SNOW AFTER 19Z/1 PM CST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA