Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 310302 AAB
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1002 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection across Central Alabama was enhanced tonight by two
distinct boundaries, one going from north to south and another
coming northward from the coast. Clouds linger but little
convection remains over the state. To our west across Southeast
Arkansas, Northeast Louisiana, and West Mississippi a large
convective complex slowly moves to the east-southeast toward
Alabama. Cloud tops are cooling on IR satellite and hires models
are indicating that this complex should continue to decay with
little if any left by the time it reaches Central Alabama. Have
left in some low 20 pops in for a few hours for the low chances of
any lingering showers across now and any lingering by the time
this area progresses through the broad upper trough base later
tonight.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are prevailing early this evening for all
terminals. Only convection left out there is across southern
Alabama, just south of KMGM and north of KTOI. Storms should stay
out of the KMGM vicinity with perhaps a few light rain showers
remaining. The chances of convection in the vicinity of KTOI are
dropping with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will
continue for all sites for a majority of the night. Patchy fog
will be possible around terminals that received rainfall, such as
KEET, but confidence remains low of any major vis restriction
below MVFR. Surface winds will be calm or light and variable
overnight, with light westerly winds expected during the afternoon
hours on Sunday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the first of the week. Since surface dew
points are so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

Boundary interactions have been the dominate forcing mechanism
today for scattered to widespread storms that have been gathering
across the north. There is now one large outflow that stretches
from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Alexander City. This outflow is
trudging southward while the storms are moving east along the
outflow boundary. Most of this activity will be dissipating after
sunset as we lose the daytime heating. Did add in patchy fog for
the night as most areas will see rain today and will be primed for
low level moisture to be in place.

For tomorrow, the higher than normal rain chances remain in the
forecast. Problem is where will the highest rain chances be.
Models continue to develop showers anywhere across the state. With
that said this outflow boundary will slide south tonight. If it
clears the CWA we may have less convection than models are going
with. However, if it stalls out near the US 80/ I-85 corridor
then the southern counties will see the best chances and scattered
chances may not be high enough.

For next week, we will remain in a fairly active pattern for the
summer. We will begin to warm up a little bit more across the area
each day and begin to approach some heat advisory criteria by
midweek. However, not enough confidence to include in the HWO at
this time, but will need to keep an eye on it. Scattered showers
will remain the normal for the rest of the extended with best
chances dependent on the day before and other mesoscale features,
so went with higher than normal chance pops for the afternoons
each day.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  71  92  71 /  20  40  30  40  30
Anniston    71  93  72  93  71 /  20  40  30  40  30
Birmingham  74  93  74  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  73  94  73  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  30
Calera      73  93  73  93  73 /  20  40  30  50  30
Auburn      73  93  74  93  73 /  20  50  40  50  40
Montgomery  73  95  74  94  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
Troy        72  92  72  92  72 /  20  50  40  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

08/56/16


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