Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 022007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  82  69 /  70  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  82  70 /  50  60  60  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  88  72  83  71 /  50  60  60  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  72  85  72 /  40  40  60  60  50
CALERA      73  88  71  84  71 /  40  50  60  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  85  72 /  20  30  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  92  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
TROY        72  92  72  90  72 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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