Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240910
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER TEXAS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON AND SPREADING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND REACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
FAIRLY WEA...SO STORMS WILL BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE AND NOT ABLE TO
SUSTAIN MUCH LONGEVITY. THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALABAMA DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TEXAS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL KEEP
STORMS RATHER ACTIVE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF AXIS WILL PUSH INTO WEST ALABAMA ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER AND MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.50 TO TO 1.80
INCHES. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGHER BULK
SHEAR COULD REACH WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FORECAST
VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 40 KNOTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTH ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
BOTTOM SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY EACH
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL STILL CLOSELY WATCH KTOI AND KMGM AS AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK COULD STILL PUSH WESTWARD CLOSE TO THOSE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN CLOUDS HAVING AN IMPACT AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  68  82  68  81 /  20  20  60  50  70
ANNISTON    83  70  83  69  82 /  10  20  50  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  83  70  82 /  30  30  60  50  70
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  83  70  83 /  40  30  60  50  80
CALERA      85  70  83  69  83 /  30  30  60  50  60
AUBURN      84  67  83  68  82 /  10  10  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  88  71  86  71  85 /  30  20  60  30  60
TROY        87  69  85  69  84 /  30  20  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.