Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 050932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

INTENTLY WATCHING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
MODELS MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOW 70S AT MGM AND THE LOW 30S AT HALEYVILLE...THE ONGOING
FORECAST ACTUALLY HAS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE INTO
OUR AREA HANDLED PRETTY WELL. STILL THINK THE SURFACE FREEZING
LINE WILL REACH THE FAYETTE AND JASPER AREAS BY 12Z...AND GET AS
FAR SOUTH AS ALICEVILLE...NORTH TCL...NORTHERN METRO BHM...GADSDEN
AND CENTRE BY 15Z. FREEZING LINE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH FROM THERE...MAYBE ONE MORE COUNTY. BEFORE STALLING...AS
DAYLIGHT STARTS TO BATTLE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

06Z NAM DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION GATHERING IN MS
AND SHOOTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
JUDGING BY RADAR LOOPS OVER THE LAST HOUR...THAT GATHERING OF
ENHANCED RAIN MAY BE HAPPENING IN MS RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL BE THE
CRITICAL TIME WHERE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MOST LIKELY
REACH THEIR GREATEST INTENSITY. OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA COINCIDES PRETTY WELL WITH THIS JUXTAPOSITION OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS.

MODELS INSIST ON RAPIDLY MOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY
21Z, COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE UNABATED HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WE
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BREAK ANY RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...THAT DOESN`T
MAKE IT FEEL ANY LESS COLD.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF AGREEMENT ON
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE WET WEATHER
IS IN STORE...ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN QUITE SKETCHY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE`S NO OBVIOUS TIME UPCOMING WHERE TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY MORE WINTRY WEATHER.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EET AT THIS TIME WITH NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR BHM AND TCL WHERE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 30 AND 33 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z TO 21Z. CEILINGS
WILL DROP INTO IFR WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE DAY
TOMORROW.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     38  22  43  26  55 /  90  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    42  23  45  27  56 /  80  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  36  20  43  28  55 /  90  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  21  44  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
CALERA      39  22  45  29  57 /  90  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      62  28  49  32  60 /  70  20   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  27  50  30  60 /  70  20   0   0   0
TROY        64  28  50  32  60 /  70  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...ETOWAH...
GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...PICKENS...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...FAYETTE...LAMAR...MARION...WALKER...
WINSTON.

&&

$$




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