Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 211933
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
233 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TO MORE OF A BROKEN LINE WITH OVERALL
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA.
THE MAIN LINE OF OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER
10 PM...ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIGHT RESULT IN A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
WITH TIME. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS AS
THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE UPPER 40S
TUESDAY MORNING.

A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING HAVE
GONE WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR MIXED IN AS
WELL AS THE FRONT PASSES THRU EACH TERMINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISO/SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED LOWER COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW AND THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  78  52  80  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    61  77  55  80  56 /  30  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  79  55  82  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  62  83  55  84  58 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      62  81  56  82  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      65  84  59  83  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  65  85  58  85  59 /  20  20  10   0  10
TROY        65  86  57  84  59 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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