Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 012337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES MADE TO
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA BUT IT
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF HOLES IN IT TO GET POCKETS
OF CONVECTION...SUCH AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
SOME WEAK VORTICITY AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL TRAVERSES THE
AREA INCREASING THE COVERAGE. THE MODELS SORTA HINTED AT THIS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THINK SCATTERED
POPS STILL A GOOD OPTION AT THIS POINT. THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE GOING TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE STATE SO SOME HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
LATER ON FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 90 AND 70.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORM MAY POSE A THREAT TO TAF SITES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY VCTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/87





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