Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 270828
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
328 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

As of 08:30Z/3:30AM, a line of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward through central Alabama. The environment is characteristic
of weak surface-based instability/few swaths of modest mixed-layer
instability (across southern counties), alongside deep-layer bulk
shear values around 50-knots + high helicity values, and steep lapse
rates above the top perimeter of a low-level inversion.

We launched a special 07Z balloon, which unfortunately popped very
early as it went inside downstream convective elements. We gathered
just enough data to see that a low-level inversion remains strong,
centered just above 850mb at 15.6C/60F. We also had a thermal
inversion around 500mb on the 00z sounding and it appears that the
temperature reading may have been reflecting that once again before
transmission stopped. Steep lapse rates were observed above the
inversion, but the inversion is a big detriment tonight. Speed and
directional wind shear remain well-off, with quite a bit of
curvature on the hodograph. A bit of veer-back-veer profiling was
evident, though. Dew points have been rising several degrees just
ahead of the line of storms, which is where capping is most offset.
Given background wind shear and influxes in surface/low-level
moisture, we will have to remain vigilant for any instance of a
storm becoming surface-based. The highest potential (which is low
overall) for severe storms is primarily south of I-20 for the
remainder of the overnight and into the morning hours post-sunrise.
Refer to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area for our focus area.
That`ll be the best zone for accessed instability to overlap shear
values + the more cellular nature of the storms. We could still
have an instance(s) of damaging straight-line winds, hail, and
mayhaps a brief tornado. Farther north, rain with some boomers is
expected.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Tonight through Wednesday.

All of the rain should be east of the area by tonight and skies
will continue to clear. However, the southeast will be in close
enough proximity to the front that some post frontal stratus may
redevelop. Numerous short term models concur on this idea and made
sure to include in the Sky grids through 10 am. On Friday the
boundary lifts back northward during the day. This added boundary
may be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm into the area
during the peak heating of the day, especially with readings in
the mid to upper 80s.

Once this boundary lifts northward by Friday night we should stay
dry for much of Saturday and Saturday night. Models are hinting at
some orographic lifting resulting in isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon in the northeast but will stay dry for now,
given the overall environment.

As we get into Sunday, models have slowed down a little bit with
the overall timing of the front. Still looking for the potential
for some strong to severe storms with it, but it now may not work
into the area until late Sunday afternoon and push through Sunday
night. Much more to be discussed with regards to the severe
potential but with active weather on the radar this morning, will
leave that to the next update.

After this system moves out during the overnight period looks like
we will be drier and a touch cooler as we work into the first week
of May, with another system just on the outside skirts of this
forecast.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Currently watching the line of showers and storms moving across
western portion of Central Alabama. Convection has become more
cell-oriented versus line oriented but timing remains about the
same and just made minor adjustments to the overall timing of the
activity. Low clouds will persist through the morning in the west
and early afternoon in the east/southeast. Skies will clear
afterwards. There is a small chance that some leftover stratus may
redevelop in the southeast but confidence is low at this time so
only included sct015 for TOI and MGM after 03Z.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will continue to bring showers and thunderstorm to the
area through this morning. Storms will be strong to severe with
heavy rainfall. Drier conditions are expected by late afternoon,
with another good chance of storms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. There could also be some isolated showers and storms on
Friday but those chances remain small. Otherwise, there are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  56  86  65  89 /  50   0  20  10  10
Anniston    77  59  85  67  89 /  70   0  20  10  10
Birmingham  78  62  87  69  89 /  30   0  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  78  61  87  70  90 /  20   0  20  10  10
Calera      78  62  86  68  89 /  30   0  20  10  10
Auburn      78  65  84  68  88 /  70  10  20  10  10
Montgomery  82  66  88  68  91 /  60  10  20  10  10
Troy        82  68  87  68  89 /  70  10  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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