Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 012035 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
224 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...A weak cold front has only
pushed as far east as the eastern Magic Valley this afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue near the front which will
slowly push further east into eastern Idaho later this evening.
Meanwhile, mostly clear skies are expected over western Idaho and
eastern Oregon tonight in the dry air behind the front. A closed
upper level low along the Oregon Coast will move inland with the
center passing through southern Oregon on Sunday. Southerly flow
ahead of the low will bring moisture northward out of Nevada for
more showers and isolated thunderstorms in south central Idaho on
Sunday. The best chance for for measurable rain on Sunday will be
across southern Twin Falls County, in the Magic Valley, and up into
the central Idaho mountains. The low will continue moving eastward
on Monday passing along the southern Idaho boarder and eventually
into Wyoming and Montana. Expect rain showers north of the low in
southern Idaho with a more focused band of rain and high elevation
mountain snow wrapping into the central mountains of Idaho on Monday
afternoon. Windy conditions are also possible on the back side of
the low on Monday afternoon in the Magic Valley.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Northwest flow aloft
with some embedded shortwaves will dominate the pattern from Monday
night through early Thursday. ECMWF has finally come around to GFS
solution with more moisture in this flow. This seems to fit better
with the very moist plume currently in the Central Pacific. Thus,
have raised precip chances and lowered temperatures for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Models also now seem to agree that Thursday will be drier
and warmer with a shortwave ridge.  Model timing then starts to
diverge, but models seem to agree that a weakening trough will move
to the north of the forecast area sometime on Friday or Friday
night, bringing another chance of showers to the northern
mountains, and cooling down temperatures once again.


.AVIATION...VFR. Showers and isolated thunderstorms near KTWF/KJER
this afternoon will push eastward out of the area this evening. But
a band of showers will move northward again across the Magic Valley
and into the central Idaho mountains overnight and early on Sunday.
Surface winds: southwest to west, 15-25 kts, diminishing after
sunset, then redeveloping again on Sunday around 10-20 kts. Winds
aloft near 10 KFT MSL: southwest 25-35 kts this evening, turning to
the southwest and diminishing to 15-25 kts on Sunday.





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