Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION STARTING THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE AREA BY FRIDAY. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEY. NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AFTER A COOL MORNING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GET WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL...
WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES
CLOUDLESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS RIDGE
WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN
CHANGING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON ON SATURDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NEVADA BORDER AREA OF SOUTHWEST
IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



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