Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 211933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
133 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The wave clouds from this morning that extended from southern
Larimer south to Park County are thinning and breaking up. Winds
at mountain top are weakening and will trend more westerly with
time as the ridge axis moves overhead on Saturday. Aside from
keeping temperatures immediately underneath the wave clouds
cooler during the early afternoon, these areas should not have any
trouble reaching high temperatures in the mid 70s today like the
surrounding Plains.

Continued dry Saturday and warming will continue with most areas
very close to or exceeding 80 degrees. Do not expect wave cloud
development tonight across the foothills and nearby plains given weaker
winds aloft out of the west Saturday morning and the stable layer
above and just downstream of the ridge tops is weaker than on

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Models keep flat upper ridging and 35 to 50 knot jet level west-
southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA Saturday night into Monday.
By Monday afternoon, the flow aloft becomes due southwesterly
through Monday night. At 12Z Tuesday morning, a weak upper trough
axis is located over the western Colorado border. The QG Omega
fields have benign synoptic scale energy over the CWA Saturday
night through Monday with a slight bit of upward motion for Monday
night. It is pretty weak. The low level winds look to be normal
drainage Saturday night, then a surge of cooler air and upslope
moves into the plains early Sunday morning. Southeasterly winds
are progged much of Sunday, then drainage again Sunday night.
Monday has normal diurnal patterns, with drainage again Monday
until another surge and northerly upslope toward Tuesday morning.
Concerning moisture, it is dry Saturday night and Sunday, then
some upper level cloudiness moves in Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture deepens and lowers over the high mountains on Monday and
Monday night, but is never very significant. The boundary layer
dew points are in the upper teens to mid 20s F Saturday night into
Sunday. They increase into the lower 20s to mid 30s F Sunday
night. On Monday, they are progged into the upper 20s into the
lower 40s F. They are mostly in the 40s F Monday night. There is a
bit of CAPE progged Monday afternoon, but just of the mountains
and far eastern border. There is a bit of QPF over the mountains
Monday afternoon and Monday night. For pops, will go with 30-60%s
in the mountains and high valleys Monday afternoon and night, with
20-40%s in the foothills. Most of the plains look dry with
downsloping and lack of moisture, with the exception of zone 38.
Will have some minor pops there. For temperatures, Sunday`s highs
are 2-5 C cooler than Saturday`s highs. Monday`s highs are up 1-4
C over Sunday`s. For the later days, Tuesday through Friday,
models have the weak upper trough to move east of the CWA border
by early afternoon Tuesday. There is more upper ridging for
Colorado through Friday. There is some moisture around Tuesday,
then a tad for the mountains Friday afternoon. Temperatures remain
above seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

This afternoon winds at BJC and DEN, which have been strong out
of the west should continue to weaken through this evening.
Decoupling with the loss of solar heating and a shift to more
Westerly at mid and upper levels, while weakening, should all
contribute to much less wind this evening. Drainage winds should
begin after 02Z this evening with typical wind patterns at the
terminals. Quiet weather is expected tomorrow with continued VFR
conditions and very few clouds at any height. Do not expect much
if any wave cloud development Saturday morning across central and
northern Colorado given the weaker winds speeds out of the west.
Winds at the terminals should be west-northwest and weaker than




SHORT TERM...Schlatter
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