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000
FXUS65 KBOU 240155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
755 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...AIRMASS WAS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE TSTMS SO WILL
REMOVE THEM FOR THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.

.AVIATION...GUSTY SE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY 03Z AND BECOME MORE
SLY BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH 12Z. ANY STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND NOT AFFECT THE AIRPORT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO AND EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF DENVER. THIS FLOW PATTERN RESULTED IN A DENVER CYCLONE THIS
MORNING WITH A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM AROUND BJC AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF GXY. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 77 SO IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVENTUAL READINGS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700MB. STILL GIVEN THE LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND WEAK WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK A STORM OR TWO OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO BUT IF STORMS DO SPARK...THEN THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES AROUND THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED FOR STORMS.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND MOISTURE DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT ZONES ALREADY HAVE THIS COVERED.
FOR FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DRY LINE SETTING UP CLOSE TO THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER. SPC ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TARGETED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH CAPES OVER 2000J/KG AND STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR
PROFILE. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY SO POPS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE NE AND KS
BORDERS. STORM DIRECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND WILL
QUICKLY DEPART. A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY POP UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE STATE WILL STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S TO 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME DRIER
AIR WHICH WILL BE LOWERING HUMIDITIES...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 10
PERCENT...WITH SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. CURRENTLY FUELS ARE DEEMED UNABLE TO CARRY
FIRE EASILY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUELS
SITUATION FOR SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHETHER TO KEEP IT
AN OPEN TROUGH AS THE GFS SHOWS...OR DIG IT SOUTH AND CUT IT OFF
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS. WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD
TO SHOW A TREND.

AVIATION...BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT APA/BJC WHILE BJC WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM BJC TO GXY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT WON`T BE MENTIONED IN CURRENT TAF. IF THINGS DO DEVELOP THEN
WILL TRY AND PINPOINT TS IN RESPECTIVE TAF. AS LIKE LAST
NIGHT...STRATUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS BUT AGAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO APA/DEN.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. ISOLATED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
MOVING AT 15-20KT SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK