Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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282
FXUS65 KBOU 120445
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
945 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO PRESENT FORECAST. AREA REMAINS
UNDER A SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING CARRIED ALONG IN THIS FLOW. THE WEAK BACKDOOR SURGE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAT CAUSED SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS TO SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLIER THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WASHING
OUT. WINDS ARE ASSUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN...EXCEPT ABOVE
TIMBERLINE AND UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE NWLY WINDS
STILL GUSTING IN THE 40-50KT RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THESE STG/GUSTY WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TONIGHTS SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW.  LOOKING AHEAD A
VERY STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WE WILL BE ON THE
EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL NOT TAKE A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS REMINDER OF WINTER...SO SOME COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT TO COME CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.
AS FOR CLOUDS...WE WILL VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
THERE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WL DOVETAIL SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE GRIDS FM GOODLAND AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY THEN THE SHEAR ALOFT BREAKS IT DOWN. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN A BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ENOUGH FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY THE
AMS OUT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT FURTHER EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL INSTBY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...THE MDLS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. A TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 6-13KT RANGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



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