Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290420
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
920 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
SNOW HAS BEGUN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO WITH RADAR
INDICATING SOME SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE RIDGES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM SALT LAKE CITY THIS
EVENING SHOWED THE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE PERSISTENT AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
DENVER AROUND 6 AM. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ALL DAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SNOWFALL ON THE PLAINS MAY BE ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ALOFT SEEDING THE UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS.  WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS INCREASING UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION
INCREASES AND A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW CONTINUES.
THIS SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SINK SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW BACKS AROUND AND BECOMES EASTERLY. THE ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 31 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN 5AM. OVER THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS STAYED QUITE COOL UNDER AN
INVERSION CAUSED BY THE SNOW COVER. WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLING THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH TOMORROW.
ACTUALLY...THESE CURRENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
WE WILL SEE IN THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE
TO LIKELY BEGIN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM. GOOD
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION AND IN
COMBINATION WITH A JET NEARBY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SNOWFALL MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS...THE EASTERN FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. EXPECTING
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL OVER THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
DENVER AND WESTERN METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 30
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...AS WELL AS DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN WELD COUNTY DUE TO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOW AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

...FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO START YOUR WEEK...

ON MONDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH BRINGING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO NE COLORADO. NE TO E
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW
FALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT RESULTING IN TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
FRONT RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...SNOWFALL AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY. I URGE RESIDENTS TO HEED
THE EXTREMELY LOW TEMPERATURES AND PREPARE THEIR HOMES AND
VEHICLES IF TRAVELING.

ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL AID IN CLEARING OUT
THE LOWERED CEILINGS AND BRINGING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO...ANOTHER NIGHT FOR RESIDENTS TO PREPARE THEIR
HOMES TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF FROZEN PIPES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING WINDS TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND HELP CLEAR OUT THE SNOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO SW COLORADO THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW FAR THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO SO WILL KEEP LIGHT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD IT
WILL SWITCH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NW DIRECTION
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LADDER PART OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

TAFS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN LAST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOW DENSITY SNOW
WHICH COULD BE PRONE TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFITNG.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ039>041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS


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