Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 261547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
NOTING BANDS OF LOW LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS TRAVERSING E-SE OFF THE
HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NY. NOTING W-NW WINDS AROUND 20-30
KT AT H925-H95 AND 40-45 KT AT H85 ON 12Z KCHH AND KALB SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE RIDGE OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.

TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION AT 15Z...PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK WITH THE FORECAST.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...EXCEPT MID
AND UPPER 30S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MARCH DAY...IN LATE DECEMBER. OUR WEATHER
WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
HAVE DRIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR +6C AND AM
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER 27TH. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
* TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DRY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRINGING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY
BRING SOME CIRRUS TO OUR AREA...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
ON TAP.

H925 TEMPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON 5C ON GFS AND 3-4C ON ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT
JUST A HINT COOLER THAN PREV FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA FLATTENS OUT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS
AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE
TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BROUGHT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION IS EITHER EAST OF OUR
AREA FOR MON TO TUE...OR STAYS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OUR AREA MON TO TUE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DID SHOW
LOW PRESSURE MAKING A CLOSE PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL GO
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER OUR AREA
SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED...MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO
SO THINKING THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS.

WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION
AND PROBABLY STAYS WITH US FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUE AND WED HIGH TEMPS MAY BE LIMITED TO UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AND WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 3500-4000 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA...
THOUGH A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WILL SEE W-NW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MA AND A SMALL PORTION OF HARTFORD COUNTY CT BUT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF CT/RI/EASTERN MA. W WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KT AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR NW MA. CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 3500 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS WITH MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS SEAS AOA 5
FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...REMAINING AOA 5 FT
POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WEST WINDS TONIGHT COULD STILL GUST TO 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES...AND TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW...WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE
SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAF/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/GAF/THOMPSON



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