Area Forecast Discussion
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224
FXUS61 KBOX 110251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
950 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

950 PM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  THIS MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SFC TO
700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE...INCREASING TO 8-9 C/KM. WE HAVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
THAN TODAY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. ACCUM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT CANT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

POST FRONTAL W/NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TO
AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST..BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
* MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  DIFFERENCES
AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS RATHER THAN USING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME.

THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME OCEAN EFFECT WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR.  INSTEAD THE COLD
WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES
COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.  DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY.  IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO
BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS VARYING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER TO A COASTAL STORM TO EVEN
HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.  STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS W MA AND N
CT TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF -SHSN.
EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY.  BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LIKELY A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME SORT OF PRECIP...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY. GALE WATCHES
WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
GALE FORCE WINDS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NECESSARY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...
BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH...

BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916
HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979
PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979
WORCESTER.... 8/1899 -  7/1979
BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979

RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH...

BOSTON...... -3/1967 -  -3/1934 - -14/1943
HARTFORD.... -7/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943
PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 -  -7/1979 - -14/1943
WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943
BLUE HILL...-10/1967 -  -9/1979 - -18/1943

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF



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