Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252055
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light precipitation will be coming to an end this evening
and skies will gradually be clearing. There may be some patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight along with some fog. Otherwise
high pressure builds into the region overnight and remains over the
area on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring dry weather to the
region...more sunshine...and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...Still dealing with some lingering
light precipitation across the area late this afternoon...
especially across Vermont. Thermal profile suggests the
precipitation will be mixed...especially east of the Green
Mountains in Vermont. But the precipitation will be light and
should not have much of an impact. Forecast soundings do show
the loss of ice in the snow growth layer and with low level
moisture lingering over the most of the area...there may be some
patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle along with the development
of some fog. Stronger flow aloft is moving away from the area
and we should see the gusty winds come to an end as well
tonight. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid
20s to lower 30s.

High pressure builds into the region on Monday and Monday night.
This will result in dry weather...a decent amount of sunshine...and
above normal temperatures with highs on Monday in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...Quiet and dry weather is expected for
the short term period as high pressure continues to move into
the region. Early sunshine with increasing cloud cover is
expected as temperatures will be seasonably warm for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Look for daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s
and the lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...High pressure moves off the east
coast to begin the long term period. Much like the last few
runs, models are still in disagreement as the GFS shows a weak
front dropping in from the northwest, bringing some rain/snow
mix for the northern counties on Wednesday. While the ECMWF
moves the front though early Thu and much drier with just a
chance of some snow showers for NEK. The models seem to fallen
back in line for the next significant system Thursday evening
into Friday as low pressure system tracks south of the Great
Lakes and continues eventually through New Jersey into the
Atlantic. The models develop a secondary low out ahead of the
primary low on the Jersey coastline early Friday morning. The
system looks to bring a wintry messy mix through the CWA. For
now, have just kept a rain/snow mix, but overnight and early
Friday freezing rain/sleet is not out of the question.

Going into next weekend, things quiet down again with just some
chance showers, mainly in the higher elevations expected. Look for
temperatures to remain above seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 30s to 40s and lows in the upper 20s to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Areal coverage of precipitation has
decreased and/or exited the area early this afternoon.
Visibilities should remain in the VFR category...but could still
lower into the MVFR category with any scattered showers moving
into the area. There may be some fog overnight...but should be
spotty and only reduce visibilities into the MVFR category. The
lingering precipitation this afternoon will still be of the
mixed variety but should trend towards being rain showers. No
precipitation is expected after 00z. As for ceilings...still
looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings through about 06z before becoming
VFR for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds through 00z
before gradually tapering off to 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Evenson



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