Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER


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