Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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105
FXUS61 KBTV 060254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 950 PM EST FRIDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AT 0230Z. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BRIEFLY
CRESTS OVER THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
THEN GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWEST. THE WSW FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE AND LAKE GENERATED STRATUS
CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO NRN NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO VERMONT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEGINNING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ONGOING PERIOD OF CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.

WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A
DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
MILD ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS FOR
THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR YOUR
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF PASSES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST NORTHERN ZONES. BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BTV4 AND BTV12 BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FADING AWAY
QUICKLY. DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT
NEVER MAKES IT QUITE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEREFORE NOT TOO COLD OF A DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SET UP FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WE ARE A BIT STUCK BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS WEAK AND NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO HELP
WITH FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BASE. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK A COLD TROF DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING US
SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COASTAL
STORM THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
STAY WELL OUT TO SEA AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. NORTHERN NY
TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY KSLK TRENDING MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT HANDLED WITH VCSH. VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT VARIABLE WIND CHANGING TO SOUTH BY MORNING AND SOME GUSTS
KMSS/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/HANSON



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