Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310159
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER
SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...1ST LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATED ACRS
CENTRAL ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NY.
THESE WL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OF SLV BTWN 1030 AND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR AND LOCAL 4KM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING INTO A BROKEN LINE AFT MIDNIGHT AND IMPACTING THE CPV
BTWN 09-12Z...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS THRU MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFT MIDNIGHT TO COVER BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. HAVE
NOTED LLVL JET INCREASING ACRS OUR REGION WITH CXX 925MB WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT MIXING TO THE SFC HAS ONLY OCCURRED OVER THE
WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. THINKING A FEW GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV OVERNIGHT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF JET.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U50S NEK TO U60S
CPV/SLV...WITH MAYBE A FEW UHI AREAS NEAR 70F FOR AN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS.
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR
THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS
SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT
AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUDS.

EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST
FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES.

BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO
VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT
TO PREVIOUS FCST.

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW
POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS
AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY WED MRNG AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK QUICKLY RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THEREFORE...PRETTY MUCH
DRIER AIR BUT AOA SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE BEFORE ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH...MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE FRI NGT-SAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S TO L80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 09Z SUNDAY SPREADING
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS...ANY SHOWERS
MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF
2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...EVENSON/SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV








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