Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240529
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...THEN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MINNESOTA GRADUALLY
RIDGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT...THERE IS STILL AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM...WITH THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AT 800 MB.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLOUDS...WHICH ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR
SECTIONS. SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR UPSTREAM WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES NORTH...BUT
LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP
MITIGATE FOG...WITH JUST PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
CLOUDS CLEAR LONG ENOUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY WIND ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A
SUNNIER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON ITS WAY TO THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL FOR THE MOST PART BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ON FRIDAY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A THIN NEARLY SATURATED LAYER NEAR 5KFT. FRIDAY
NIGHT EXPECT SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP WITH HIGH CLOUDS
WORKING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LEADING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL THICKENS AND LOWER THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS WNY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AND EXTEND INTO
CNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE
BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS TO DIP BELOW AVERAGE. THE COOLEST TEMPS WHICH WILL DIP
INTO THE 40S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SO MUCH MORE MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL THEN BE FOUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR ON THE LAKE
PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES A STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SOME MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE HELPS CLOUDS TO HANG
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY
ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS TO EVEN EXPAND FOR AWHILE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...BEFORE ONGOING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
ALLOW FOR A FINAL CLEARING TREND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY MID MORNING WITH
THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FALL SHORT
OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT STILL CREATE A DECENT CHOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SETTLE BACK TO
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH





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