Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 280920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...STRETCHING WEST OUT OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS
CAN EXPECT AN INITIAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LULL IN PRECIP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN NEW
YORK. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION
AXIS NOW PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
REPLACE EARLY MORNING SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A STEADY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AN INCH PLUS IN AREAS THAT SEE
HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF
THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 09Z AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION....INCLUDING THE KART
TERMINAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BEHIND THAT INITIAL WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO THE PRECIP AND COOL MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL HELP KEEP
MOST AREAS BELOW VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
COME BACK IN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
PROBABLY BRING A ROUND OF MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KJHW
TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES..

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.