Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 240554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CLEAR STARLIT
SKIES REGION WIDE.

THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS. DEW
POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AT OF 06Z BUT A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S AT 06Z AND SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND LOW 30S CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES BEFORE SUNRISE.

ALBEIT IT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...THURSDAY IS SLATED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AND SUPPLY US WITH SUN FILLED
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S...
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A BREEZE OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN MERCURY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT
OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL







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