Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
IS HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK...WITH CLEAR SKIES JUST
UPSTREAM.  ONCE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD
HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WHICH
CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON CHRISTMAS
EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ERODED THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LONGER WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KART.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA






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