Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 301512
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
912 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SUMMER
AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR THE REGION. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090 061/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088 053/083
    00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092 064/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092 061/085
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
BHK 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089 059/082
    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
SHR 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089 056/084
    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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