Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270406
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN BACK EDGE IN ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF ROSEBUD AND
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING JET ENERGY EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW LOCALLY. IN THE
WEST...WARMER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BOUYED ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGION BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IT COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
OUR NE ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. I HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HITTING THE EASTERN ZONES HARDEST
OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED FOG TO MANY AREAS. BT


&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL EASTWARD. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED FROM KMLS EAST AND
NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL EXCEPT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR KLVM AND THE
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    21/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    21/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    31/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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