Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 222140
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
340 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

A strong northwest-southeast jet stream will continue to move
across the forecast area into Friday. This combined with an upper
low over southern Canada will continue to provide a strong
northwest flow aloft through Saturday. This jet will allow winds
to continue to mix down to the surface for the remainder of today
and, to a lesser extent, into the day Friday. As a result,
northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 40 mph are possible
for the remainder of this afternoon/evening and again Friday.
However, winds Friday are expected to be less than today. We have
left the forecast dry through Friday night but can`t rule out a
very isolated light shower with this northwest flow aloft, mainly
east of Billings the next couple of days.

Another disturbance within the northwest flow aloft will move
across the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening bringing a
returned chance for a shower or isolated thunderstorm, mainly
west of a Lame Deer-Forsyth line. Temperatures will continue to
be below normal through Saturday with most locations only in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Model differences for next week are quite large and thus the
confidence in the forecast beyond Monday is low. The differences
actually start showing up as early as Monday.

An upper ridge builds into the area Monday and temperatures will
respond with highs approaching the lower 90s. The ECMWF was
farther north with an upper low cruising across southern Canada,
and thus not as strong in flattening the ridge and eventually
providing cooler air for the middle of the week. The GFS was very
aggressive in digging the upper low into northern Montana and
swinging a strong cold front into the forecast area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. The GFS solution could potentially include a
couple of severe weather days (Monday, when energy rotates around
the ridge, and Tuesday with stronger height falls as the upper low
drops south). Forecast capes are not overly high on either of
these days, so the amount of convection in play is in question.
The ECMWF would be a warmer and drier solution with the upper low
shifting east across southern Canada, with Montana remaining in
zonal flow.

Made very little adjustments to the going forecast due to the
large model discrepancies. TWH

&&

.AVIATION...

Partly cloudy skies with VFR conditions will prevail for the
remainder of today and through tonight. Gusty northwest winds 25
to 35 mph will continue into this evening but decrease after
sunset. Hooley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/071 048/073 049/079 053/089 061/088 057/081 055/078
    10/B    12/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 037/070 040/072 040/079 046/087 053/084 049/077 045/074
    00/U    12/T    10/U    00/U    13/T    23/T    23/T
HDN 043/073 046/075 046/081 053/091 059/091 057/084 055/080
    10/B    12/T    10/U    00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T
MLS 045/072 044/074 046/079 052/090 062/093 060/085 057/081
    00/B    01/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T
4BQ 044/070 044/072 045/077 050/088 059/092 057/084 056/080
    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T
BHK 042/067 040/069 040/075 045/085 055/088 057/082 053/077
    10/N    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/T    22/T
SHR 042/068 043/070 043/076 046/086 054/088 052/081 052/076
    11/B    12/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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