Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$





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