Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 160805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
405 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A SUNNY DAY. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD AIR
MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
IT WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART AND IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. BELIEVE THE WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP
PREVENT FROST. THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY
BETTER IN NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF DISPLAYS A CUT-OFF LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SINCE THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

INFLUX OF COOLER DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH WIND STAYING
UP...WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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