Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 201043
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will remain over the region for the next
several days along with weak upper level troughing. This will
support a slight chance of thunderstorms through Friday with
weak upper ridging strengthening Saturday and thunderstorm
chances diminishing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will remain over the area with upper level
troughing also across the region. Pwat values will be around 1.5
inches with instability moderate this afternoon and evening.
Issues surrounding convection will be westerly downsloping winds
working to dry the atmosphere and the lack of a strong trigger
mechanism or divergence aloft. As such will remain with slight
chance of thunderstorms from late morning through the evening
hours. With sunset and loss of heating potential for convection
will quickly diminish this evening with partly cloudy skies
overnight. Afternoon highs today will again be in low 90s with
lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will remain over the forecast area with weak
troughing aloft. Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of
Long Island through the short term as Hurricane Maria moves
northwestward toward the Bahamas. This will result in little
change to the forecast area with moderate instability and pwat
values around 1.5 inches each day. With little support aloft and
lack of strong trigger mechanisms chances of thunderstorms will
remain low through Friday night. Best chance of convection will
be Friday as a series of short waves cross the area.
Temperatures through the short term will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few changes made through the long term as Tropical Storm Jose
drifts off the New England Coast and Hurricane Maria turns
northward. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain well offshore
over the weekend then move northward away from the forecast area
early next week. Have remained with a dry forecast as Hurricane
Maria moves offshore of the area...however much will depend on
the exact track of Maria and remaining moisture from Jose. As
Maria moves away from the region early next week upper level
ridging will move over the region and continue suppressing
convective potential. Temperatures through the long term will be
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected outside of possible early morning fog.

Some mid and high level clouds moving across the region early
this morning. Patchy IFR/MVFR fog at OGB and AGS Terminals this
morning. Expect visibilities to improve to VFR between 13z-
14z.


Models suggest a few showers in the area in the afternoon
associated with approaching upper level trough. Showers may
shift to coast by later in the day. Due to expected isolated
coverage...will leave out of terminal forecasts at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible each morning, mainly at AGS and OGB.
Scattered diurnal convection possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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