Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 260604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A weak front will move into our region late tonight and Sunday.
A series of systems will affect our region next week, providing
a chance of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, at times.
Above normal temperatures expected through the period.


Early this morning: Satellite and regional radar loops show a
plume of deep moisture and rainfall moving northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Expect clouds to be on the increase later
tonight as the moisture transport and convection to our west
shifts eastward slowly. Guidance continues to indicate the
remainder of the night and early morning will remain dry, with
bulk of rainfall staying west of the area through sunrise.
Morning lows moderated by some cloud cover and a low-level jet
over the area. Expect morning lows in the mid 50s.

Today: The main upper trough will lift northward and then
northeast of the area through the day. Scattered showers, and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm, will be possible later in the
day as the trough pushes through. Best chance for rainfall will
remain across the western counties, with chance pops warranted
in that area. Further east, mainly slight chance or lower for
pops. Cloud cover will help to limit highs somewhat, but with
good warm advection on southerly winds, temperatures still
forecast to rise into the middle to upper 70s.


Front to linger in the vicinity Monday. No upper trigger Monday
but diurnal heating, along with convergence along old front or
sea breeze, could provide a slight chance of showers, maybe an
isolated thunderstorm.


Active pattern suggested by models with a series of systems that
could affect our region through the period.

Upper disturbance progged to roll through Tuesday time frame, with
an accompanying surface bounday. Progged instability values
generally weak to moderate. Both GFS and EC indicate some upper
ridging over the SE CONUS Wednesday as a closed upper low moves into
the southern Plains. The surface front appears to stall in our
vicinity, with a possible weak wedge-like regime to the north of it.
Some question as to where the front/weak wedge may set up, which
provides some uncertainty for Wed/Thu. The front would presumably
eventually lift back north as a warm front ahead of the next system,
that GFS and EC generally bring into our region Thu nt/Fri time
frame. However, confidence of model timing and position of closed
upper systems can be limited late in the forecast period. So, some
limited confidence on specifics mid to late week. Generally used a
model blend, which provides mainly slight chance to chance POPs at
times through much of the period, and above normal temps
generally, though any weak wedginess could limit max temps on a
day or two mid week for parts of the FA, mainly north, if it
sets up.


Expect VFR conditions to persist through the period.

Southeasterly flow overnight will continue pushing moisture into
the area as a cold front moves across the Gulf States. All
guidance in agreement with keeping conditions vfr, dropping
ceilings down to low end vfr at times through the day. As the
trough moves through during the afternoon, a few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, although the coverage will be
limited to west of taf sites. Winds overnight light out of the
south, then increase to between 5 and 10 knots through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR restrictions possible
each morning as moist southerly flow persists over the




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