Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 052328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE FORECAST AREA BASED ON A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED THUNDER AND POSSIBLILTY OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LESS THREAT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. BROKEN STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CU OVERNIGHT AT TIMES
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR ALOFT AGAIN FRIDAY AND EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AT CAE/CUB TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND LOW THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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