Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 201024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY PROMOTING INCREASED MOISTURE. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE
REGION SUNDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTH. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF. THIS LOW WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF SC...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER DRIER AIR INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD SPREAD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS SHOWERS
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PLENTIFUL. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH DOWN SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE UPSTATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME ON MONDAY. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. 00Z GFS
RUN IS STILL QUICKER THAN THE 00Z NAM WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY CREATING A STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. HAVE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
VFR AT THIS POINT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. STRONG 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET...ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...WILL KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING.  STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRATUS DECK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORMING IS DIMINISHING AS MORE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION.  SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS MIXING INCREASES AND
THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE.  ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF
SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO CEILING
OR VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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