Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 012106
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING AS THE
AREA REMAINS BLANKETED BENEATH HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.
OUR AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
CROSSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES RENEWING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH INITIATING
CONVECTION. EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z
ECMWF COMES IN LINE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE BECAUSE OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK BECAUSE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. EXPECTED MIXING SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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