Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 311027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN SC...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY. MAY STILL SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY A BREAK IN
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS BAND LOOKS TO
BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS REMAINING MVFR/IFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL NOT PLACE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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