Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271706
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
106 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will remain to our west through mid week.
Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the
area this afternoon and again on Wednesday. A larger area of
low pressure may approach late Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM Update: Temperatures have been tempered a bit due to
clouds across the northern areas while central and downeast have
warmed up quicker into the upper 60s and lower 70s. SPC is
monitoring the southern half of the state for possible severe
convection this afternoon into the evening. Radar showed
activity firing up across the western and portions of central
areas. Warm front now to the crown of Maine as winds are ssw
although fairly light attm w/the exception of the downeast.
Adjusted the enhanced wording into portions of interior
Downeast and included the Bangor region in this as well
w/dewpoints in the mid 50s and temps warming into the lower 70s.
The HRRR and NAM12 doing well w/the latest setup showing some
decent convection by later in the afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A surface and upper level system will approach from the west
today. Conditions are unstable enough for thunderstorms to
develop across northern and central areas this afternoon and
continue into the evening. Have used enhanced wording for
forecast in these areas into this evening. Heavier rain is also
possible in some of the storms. Showers are expected to continue
through the night as the system nears the western portion of
the state by early morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upr lvl s/wv wl be lifting acrs the north Wed mrng. As it does so
expect showers by the start of the pd ovr the Crown with dvlpmnt of
showers acrs most of the CWA in the aftn. Airmass wl destabilize
enuf with steep mid-lvl lapse rates expected drg the aftn to include
chc thunder for most of the area with the possible exception of
coastal zones trapped in the marine lyr, tho cannot rule out
elevated convection along the coast. High temps expected to be blo
normal once again with l70s for srn zones (with exception of the
coast) and m/u 60s in the north.

H5 trof wl be mvg east Wed night with little in the way of pcpn
expected ovrngt due to NVA. Expect the next chc for pcpn wl mv in
mainly on Thur aftn, tho may see sctd showers dvlp in the mrng in
warm advection as wmfnt appchs.  Cannot rule out thunder acrs the
north Thu aftn as yet another s/wv zips thru but due to
discrepancies in med range guidance wl only keep pcpn worded as
showers for the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models hv differing solns for the end of the week with NAM
bringing compact low thru Downeast Fri mrng with GFS hanging low
back acrs srn Ontario with just warm advection showers/thunder
expected. EC and CMC similar to GFS with low hanging back to the
west. All in all an unsettled wx pattern to end out the week
and thru the weekend as hard-to-time wvs zip along bndrys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions this morning then MVFR/IFR
conditions later today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: IFR possible Wed morning at BGR and BHB in low
clouds and fog. MVFR/VFR possible further to the north with
occasional MVFR in the afternoon in showers and possible -tsra.
Mostly VFR expected on Thursday thought cannot rule out brief
MVFR restriction in the afternoon in stray shower. Unsettled wx
pattern will bring occasional MVFR conditions to all terminals
thru Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have initialized the wind grids with the NAM. Will
lower the model winds by 10 percent to account for relatively
cold sea surface temperature. For Waves: The primary wave system
will continue to be long period southwesterly swell around 2
feet/7-8 seconds. A secondary south to southwesterly wind wave
less than 1 foot will persist through tonight. Have used the
NWPS model for wave heights. Will use NWPS output near surf zone
for wave heights in surf zone forecast.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels until Thur
night in sswrly swell. Fog will limit visibilities over the
water Wed morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt



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