Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 262358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE: ONSET SN POPS WERE RE-DONE USING A RAPID POPS FROM
NEAR TERM QPF TOOL TO PROVIDE A MORE REALISTIC HR TO HR SN ONSET
ACROSS THE FA LATER TNGT INTO WED MORN...ALSO HELPING WITH
AVIATION TAF FCSTS. OTHERWISE...FCST LOW TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO
BETTER AGREE WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICE. BASED ON THE CHG OF LOW
TEMPS...LATEST OBSVD TEMPS AND DWPTS...FCST HRLY TEMPS AND DWPNTS
WERE MODIFIED THRU THE OVRNGT HRS.

ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE
EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD
TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW
AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT
TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL
THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT
PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE
ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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