Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 010134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
934 PM UPDATE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN KY...AND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DIG SE INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC BY 12Z SAT. DUAL SFC LOWS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR THE GRAND STRAND
SAT MORNING. AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME RAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. NO CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET TONIGHT AND THEN THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COUNTY COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THAT REGION.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS STILL GOING TOO COLD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEAST WIND WILL OFFSET AND SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND
MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY, THE FIRST WAVE LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE DOWNEAST
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS BY
LATER MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WARMER AIR IN THE LLVLS WILL
PUSH ONSHORE AND BLYR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 32F.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES HOLD AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOLDOWN
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE AREAL
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH AND WEST AND MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST LOCALS
NORTH INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL HEADING INTO THE EVENING RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE RAIN OR A MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD ON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST LOCALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG 500 MB MOVES
NORTH, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM WITH
THIS UPDATE...WEIGHTING THE FORECAST A LITTLE HEAVIER TOWARD THE
NAM AS IT LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHARPER GRADIENT OF QPF BETTER
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT FOR SUNDAY
MORNING SNOW PICKS UP AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT TIMES OVER
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TOWARD WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING IN THE CWA, A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE PRECISE TRACK, WHICH IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY
CERTAIN, WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP AND
WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT A SWATH OF
AT LEAST 7 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE
OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 45
MPH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES WHEN COMBINED WITH WET SNOW BUILDING UP ON TREES.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT W/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON HITTING 35 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS W/HIGHTS APPROACHING 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME SUNDAY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT
SEAS RISING INTO THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS
START TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS



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