Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221847
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
247 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region this evening. An
occluded front will cross the region later tonight. Weak high
pressure will then return across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later
Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An amplifying upper ridge that kept the area dry today will
slide east this evening and a weak occluded front will enter the
area with shower activity. Most of the showers will cross the
region before 2am and precipitation will become light rain and
drizzle as the occlusion draws closer late tonight. Overall
precipitation amounts will generally be near a tenth of an inch.
There had been some expectation that coastal areas could see up
to a quarter inch with a low pressure system developing along
the front, but that low is now expected to pass much further
south of the state during Tuesday...and is no longer a factor in
the forecast. There is some marginal upper level instability
towards the Saint John Valley after midnight, but not strong
enough to prompt mention of isolated thunderstorms at this
point. A drying southwest wind will follow the occlusion
tomorrow morning. This will lift low clouds fairly quickly
tomorrow and allow highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some
afternoon sunshine is probable with just some fair weather
cumulus. Even areas closer to the coast should warm up...and
have used bias- corrected guidance to compensate for models
keeping it too cool along the coast. The upper low associated
with the occlusion is expected to fill quickly and ride well
north of the area. With the resultant weak ridging aloft and at
the surface, did not feel compelled to include any afternoon
showers.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models` slowing trend continues regarding rain onset for next
event. Looks like rain will hold off until late Thursday at
least, probably beginning Thursday night. Weak ridging aloft
Tuesday night to Thursday, with a gradual shift from low level
offshore to low level onshore flow. Temperatures near average.
Generally partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy Thursday as
moisture begins to increase from the southwest ahead of next
system.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Likelihood of rain Thursday night to Friday as a decent upper
level low moves through with a likely surface low in the Gulf of
Maine. Enough models and ensembles have the rain that opted to
bump up precip chances some for the event, with 80 percent PoPs
from central to Downeast. Event has the potential to produce in
the neighborhood of an inch of rain. No threat of snow. Also,
any threat of thunderstorms looks minimal.

Cooler air moving in behind the system Friday night, although
there`s a fair amount of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is
behind the system. If the colder range of possibilities
transpires and everything works out just right, can`t rule out
frost Saturday night. Weekend looking mostly dry.

Next rain chance is around Monday.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will slowly decrease to MVFR this
evening...and then IFR later in the evening. The IFR
condition...mostly due to cigs will persist into early Tuesday
morning. All terminals are expected to be VFR by late morning
with gusty southwest winds up to 20 kts.

SHORT TERM: VFR Tuesday night through Thursday inland. From
Bangor to Coastal Downeast, potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings from
marine layer late Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread IFR
likely Thursday night into Friday with the next rain event.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The only two issues of note will be some fog rolling
in later tonight through Tuesday morning and a gradually
increasing south swell that could reach near 3 ft by late
Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions possible Thursday and Friday
with the next system. Before then, below small craft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MCW/Foisy
Marine...MCW/Foisy



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