Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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709
FXUS61 KCAR 181641
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1241 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning.
High pressure will build this afternoon and move east tonight.
Another cold front will cross the region Thursday night. High
pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM update...Skies have pretty much cleared out this
afternoon with a few lingering cumulus across Downeast and far
northeastern Maine. Drier air is spreading into the region
behind the cold front that is just about made its way across
the area, so expect even these few clouds will dissipate. Bumped
up high temperatures for today as current temps are near or
above previously forecasted highs. Otherwise the forecast is in
good shape and no other changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...
The area is currently in the warm sector of a weak frontal
system. The cold front will move into northern zones this
morning, stall and move back north as a warm front. No
precipitation is expected and there will be little cloud cover
after early this morning. An upper level ridge and surface ridge
will build this afternoon. Warm advection and subsidence with
this ridge will overcome the very brief cold advection behind
this morning`s cold front and the net effect will be that
today`s highs will be warmer than the highs recorded on Tuesday.
Expect mid 50s in northern Aroostook and low to mid 60s in the
southern half of the forecast area. There are relatively strong
northwest winds aloft that will mix down today such that gusts
to 25 mph are possible. For tonight, warm advection continues
with a persistent SW breeze. This will keep lows in the upper
30s to lower 40s in spite of clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will cross the region Thursday with mostly sunny
skies. A cold front then crosses the region Thursday night with
partly cloudy skies, with also a chance of showers across
northern areas. High pressure then builds across the region
Friday through Friday night with mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Thursday.
Temperatures will cool behind the cold front Friday though
remain at slightly above normal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Saturday with mostly clear
skies, then exit to the east Sunday with partly cloudy skies.
Uncertainty then exists Monday into Tuesday regarding the timing
of a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Cloud
cover will increase across the region Monday along with a chance
of showers. Moisture will be drawn north in advance of the cold
front Tuesday with increasing shower chances or a steadier rain
developing. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels
Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. No cigs are expected after early this morning
with the cold front. Vis should be excellent. Northwest winds
will gust over 20 kts by midday into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Thursday night. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions are expected across the region Thursday through
Sunday. South to southwest winds could gust up to around 25 mph
Thursday through early Thursday night in advance of a cold front.
Northwest winds could gust up to around 25 mph Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be diminishing by later this
morning and the end time for the SCA looks reasonable. Winds
will pick up again late tonight, but remain below SCA criteria.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected
Thursday into Friday. Conditions will fall below small craft
advisory levels later Friday into Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Hastings/MCW/Norcross
Marine...Hastings/MCW/Norcross



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