Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 171346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN
SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP
TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN
VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND
ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT
A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT
ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI
MARINE...RB/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...CB




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