Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN TEMPS...FOR MSLY HI TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
THRU THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR
AND AND TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT BASED ON 5-6 PM OBSVD CONDITIONS.

ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE
RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED.
AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY
MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE
MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE
WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY
CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS
IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN
BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z.
NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC
SLOWEST.

STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN
THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE
AND 00Z WED.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR
DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL
CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH
XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG
THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY
WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY
VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND
GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE
OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT
WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR
MARINE...VJN/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...MCW


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