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000
FXUS61 KCAR 091407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MONDAY AS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0955L: DECREASED CLOUDS FOR TODAY...INCREASED HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...DECREASED LOWS TONIGHT WITH
THE SUBZERO TEMPS NORTH OF HOULTON...AND DECREASED POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX PTRN EXPECTED THRU TNGT... RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CURRENTLY
CNTRD WELL W OF THE AREA WILL BUILD EWRD TODAY AND TNGT KEEPING
COLD BUT DRY CONDS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEAK CAA AND NW FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SC ACROSS THE N LATER THIS AM INTO THE AFTN BUT
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY SO ONLY SCT TO OCNL BKN CONDS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPS FCST TO AVG ABOUT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS... RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE AREA TNGT W/ SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS
ACROSS WRN AREAS AS A VRY WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW
AND WEAK WAA COMMENCES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS
RANGING FROM NR ZERO NW TO AROUND 10 ABV NR THE COAST...&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL BE THE WEAKER OF THE
TWO, DROPPING PERHAPS A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR WESTERN AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL AT LEAST
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD. SOUTH FLOW OWING TO THE PRIMARY LOW KEEPING TO
OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
APPROACHING 40 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, SO EXPECT MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE SNOW. MOST SPOTS COULD
SEE AT MOST AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
WIND DOWN TO SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS FROM
BRIDGEWATER AND OXBOW SOUTH SEEING A CHANGE OVER TO EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
HANDLING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE LATEST ECMWF, WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LOW`S MOVEMENT. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACK,
NORTHERN AREAS WOULD SEE DECENT SNOW, THOUGH LESS THAN DOWNEAST
MAINE. SHOULD THE NORTHERN TRACK HOLD TRUE HOWEVER, NORTHERN MAINE
COULD ALSO BE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS MORE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD ALSO POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX
DOWNEAST, WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THE
SOUTHERN TRACK IS PREFERRED; THIS WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH PERHAPS
SOME RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BEAR WATCHING UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE COMES TO A FINAL DECISION ON THE STORM`S EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING. IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THO WEAK
CAA AND NW FLOW SHOULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SC ACROSS THE N LATER THIS
AM INTO AFTN AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PSBL MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NRN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THRU TNGT...

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WE`LL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END, BUT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LOWER CONDITIONS BACK TO
IFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AM AS SSERLY
SWELL FROM LOW PRES WELL E OF THE WATERS AND WEAK CAA COMBINE FOR
SEAS BTWN 5-6 FT AND WNDS GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S...
THEREAFTER...WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU
TNGT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME LGT FREEZING SPRAY IN FOR THIS AM...

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS