National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KCAR 110827
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH
THAT WILL SET OFF SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO H700...BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. THE FLURRIES SHOULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS BANGOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTH
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL ENTER THE CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MAY SET OFF A BRIEF SNOW
SQUALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AS IT CROSSES AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN
THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT REACHES HOULTON AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE PROGRESS
OF THIS BITTER AIR APPEARS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. THIS MEANS THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BARELY
MET IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF HOULTON OVERNIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR
BANGOR AND INTERIOR DOWN EAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL MEASURE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS THU ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -25 TO -28C...WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS SOMETHING THAT WOULD ONLY BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOUT ONCE
EVERY 5 TO 10 YEARS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH WITH TEENS ALONG THE COAST. THE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR CARIBOU IS 2 ABOVE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SAFE. AS THE HIGH CENTER IS STILL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THU
MORNING THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT FOR A 10 TO 15
MPH AND WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE MORNING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THU MORNING. A WEAK CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE THU NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA FRI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON JUST HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL TUMBLE THU NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES AND SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. IN THE EAST THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW IN THE NORTH
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ALONG THE COAST. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY`S CLIPPER. AGAIN WITH THE HIGH CENTER
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME WIND CHILL
CONCERNS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COLD AS THE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
SAT. THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER OR JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
IF THIS TREND HOLDS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WITH AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. OF COURSE WITH
THE STORM STILL BEING 5 DAYS OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES
IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY THROUGH THE
MARITIMES SUN NIGHT MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NORTHERN MAINE
AND THIS MAY END UP BEING THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE CROWN OF MAINE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IT LOOKS
WINDY AND COLD FOR MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM HUL
NORTHWARD. AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. FVE AND CAR COULD HAVE
CONTINUING PROBLEMS WITH IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHORT TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU
WITH VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB.  MVFR EXPECTED AT TIMES FRI...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT -SHSN.  MOSTLY VFR FOR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: COLD AIR OVER THE COMPARATIVELY WARMER WATERS WILL
PRODUCE GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MET
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 TO 35 KTS WITH SEAS AS
HIGH AS 8 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AT TIMES...MAINLY THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER BREAK
POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. A GALE IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB