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000
FXUS62 KCHS 052043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT
AS THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THE
RECORDS AT CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME DROPPING BELOW 60 DEGREES...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS. THE SHOWERS SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIKELY DISSIPATING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS LIKELY. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEA FOG OFFSHORE MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ACTUALLY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE DECREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS
80-82F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
THE FRONT REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST...WARM ADVECTION FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW 60 DEGREES. LIGHT RAIN WILL
START MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND STALL ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER...WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
ENTRENCHED FROM THE NORTH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...LIFTING
ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT. DECENT COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE WEDGE SETS UP. TEMPS
MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK CLOUDY AND COOL WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SC...THUS WE
SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN SC ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH WE COULD SEE READINGS
HIT THE LOWER 70S BASED ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT LIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED DURING COLD FROPA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

TEMPS SHOULD BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD THEN RETURN TO THE LOW/MID
60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS FROPA CONTINUES. WE COULD SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE THE RISK
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG INCREASE AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
14-15Z...POSSIBLY A BIT LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK REALLY
IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIFR VSBYS AND VLIFR CIGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEA FOG WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH THE COOL SHELF WATERS. A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH...BUT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS PINNING DOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG. LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINT AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. FOLLOWING THE
TRENDS FROM TODAY GIVEN SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...WE ARE
FEATURING AREAS OF SEA FOG...PATCHY DENSE...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
FOG COULD CONTINUE INTO PART OF SATURDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WE MAY SEE BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE SC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WATERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE COULD SEE CONDITIONS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THU 12/05...
KCHS... 80/1998 *RECORD BROKEN TODAY
KSAV... 79/1998 *RECORD BROKEN TODAY
KCHL... 78/1922

RECORD HIGHS FOR FRI 12/06...
KCHS... 81/1998
KSAV... 80/1998
KCHL... 80/1998

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
CLIMATE...