Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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407
FXUS62 KCHS 072058
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY....THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...3:30 PM RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN INDICATING COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER, PEOPLE ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN THAN ICE PELLETS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MINIMAL INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THE ICE PELLETS, PLUS THE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, NO ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GROUND ARE EXPECTED.

STRONG WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERNMOST PORTION OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. THESE WINDS SHOULD
EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. THE ADVISORY SHOULD EXPIRE THIS EVENING.

LAKE WINDS...SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE ENTIRE SITUATION QUIETS DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS THE
ATLANTIC LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. EVEN
WITH CLEARING SKIES, THERE ISN`T MUCH COLD ADVECTION. WE DON`T
EXPECT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES TO REACH FREEZING, BUT WE WILL
MONITOR THIS FOR BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 8 AND THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WE CAN EXPECT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE REASONABLE.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AND IS NOT REFLECTED
WITHIN THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
REACHING 50F AT MOST/ALL LOCATIONS. TO VARYING DEGREES...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS COULD PUSH ONSHORE INTO
COASTAL SC COUNTIES...BUT STRONG/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD HOLD ANY SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S AT THE COAST COULD SUPPORT MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS 15-20F.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES 10-15F BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGH TEMPS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. A
DRY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LAKE WINDS...COLDER AIR WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD STRONG WINDS
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE REGION WILL SOLIDLY REMAIN WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MOST
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD
COME TO START THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW DRAGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL. A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS CAUSING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41004
SHOWS GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH SEAS AROUND 10-12 FT. BUOY 41008
CONTINUES TO REPORT WIND GUSTS JUST UNDER GALE FORCE WITH SEAS
AROUND 6 FT. GIVEN THE WINDS ARE STILL LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED,
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST DOWN FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LIKEWISE, ADJUSTED THE SEAS DOWN. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CHANGES TO
SOME OF THE HEADLINES. SEE THE MWW FOR MORE DETAILS.

TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST IN THE EVENING...QUICKLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. THE
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD EXPIRE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL HAVE A HEADLINE IN EFFECT ALL
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
LATE WEEK. COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY PM...AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG FLOW OF COLD AIR THROUGH MID WEEK. ACROSS
GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WITHIN
NEAR SHORE WATERS...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GALES
COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS ALL
AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES MIGHT AGAIN LEAD TO SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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