Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST...WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS MODERATE RAIN CONCENTRATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN...AND
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL OF 0.5-0.75
HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR AND RT 219. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PWAT AIR IS
LIFTED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE BEST 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT NCENT MTNS BY
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH THE ALLEGHENIES OF WRN PENN SEEING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.

00Z NAM AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT
POPS PEGGED AT 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH FAR SCENT PENN AND THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL SEE THE LOWEST QPF THROUGH 12Z /AS WILL
MUCH OF WARREN COUNTY IN THE FAR NW/.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN EARLY TODAY IS THE QUITE SMALL POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED/MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN PLACES THAT HAVE LOW
3-6 HOUR FFG VALUES OF JUST 1.2-1.5 INCHES.

MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SMALL AND COMPACT
TSRA DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND TOWARD KFIG AND KJST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHOULD
NEGATE THE THREAT OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM JUST THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S NEAR AND TO
THE WEST OF RT 219 IN WESTERN PENN. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME
8-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH /ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION/ WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/OR FORM FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE
FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH
LITTLE CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OH VALLEY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
VFR FLYING ONCE A.M. FOG/HZ BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...A.M. FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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