Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281838
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW STORM MAY BRING A ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BRIGHT MID WINTER SUN HAS HELPED TEMPS REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE
VERY CHILLY EARLY MORNING READINGS. SKIES WILL REMAIN BASICALLY
CLEAR WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEGINS.

HAVE BACKED OFF THE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO MY NWRN ZONES BY EARLY
THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A LOW END ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SHOVING A WEDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN
COOLING QUICKLY ONCE PRECIP STARTS SO THE THREAT FOR SIG ICING
WILL BE PRETTY SMALL. THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4INCH SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES...WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AREAS EASTWARD BEFORE THINGS WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THE BRISK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR SE.

THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SNOW STARTING AROUND MID DAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAINING MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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