Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241751
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
151 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure centered over Long Island today will
move off to the northeast on Wednesday. A noticeably warmer and
more summer-like pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible
each afternoon and evening is expected to last into the first
part of the holiday weekend. slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Mostly sunny skies with a northwest wind will persist into early
this evening. Temperatures have reached into the 80s in many
locations in southeastern Pennsylvania. Day 1 of many to come over
the next 5-7 days.

Low-level, but mainly flat fair weather cumulus abound. Radar
implied perhaps a lone shower over eastern Schuylkill county but
otherwise quite afternoon.

This evening the winds and cumulus clouds should quickly
dissipate. A good evening to be spinning about.

Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool
overnight. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in
cooler spots of the western mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly
sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s
to mid-80s.

It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but
should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s
steady climb.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended guidance continues the idea the development of an eastern
ridge/western trough pattern, bringing the arrival of the first
extended period of summer-like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. The limiting factor will be the eventual sharpness of the
upper ridge and how warm we manage to get aloft. The GFS is very
aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the eastern
U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. The NAEFS is
more in line with the GFS which hints that Saturday could be the
day with smallest convective chances. I don`t have anything more
than chance pops in the extended given the muddy nature of the
ridge and low confidence that it will be able to shield us from
upstream convection that will be embedded in the flow.

The highest confidence part of the forecast is for temperatures to
be above normal through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated for 18Z package...Second verse same as the first....Mostly
clear skies with west northwest winds. Some gusty winds in spots
this afternoon. Winds are gusty in the west and picking up in the
southeast. Winds should diminish early this evening.

Should be VFR all around. There is a slight chance of some very
isolated showers in extreme eastern portions of the region this
afternoon. Most, if not all the showers should stay well to our
east.

Overnight VFR will prevail with some patch MVFR in some areas of
fog in the valleys of the southeast.

We are looking at a long stretch of relatively warm dry weather.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Fri...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Sat...perhaps some overnight patchy fog or haze

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Grumm


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