Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 191157
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
657 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air moving in today will generate a gusty wind this morning
and lake effect snow which will last into Monday morning.
Conditions will gradually improve into Monday. High pressure
will bring moderating temperatures and dry conditions Tuesday
through at least Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain is just about gone from the SE, now, as the cold front has
barrelled on through. Frequent gusts to 40-45MPH here at the
office and across much of the area this morning. The strongest
forcing is past. The lake effect streamers are already forming,
but temps only getting cold enough on the highest elevations
for snow as of yet. Temps will continue to fall behind the front
for a few more hours, but the sun will be breaking through and
temps may rise again. Aftn temps will be in the 30s W and 40s
SE -- not too far from where they are right now. Only, with some
sun, it will feel much better. The wind should be subsiding
enough to allow the wind advy to die off, too. Snow accums may
not be much before sunset, as the wind will keep things tumbling
and the temps keep it melting. But, will still go for an inch
in the NW and on the highest hill tops in the Laurels by day`s
end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The best lake effect snows will occur tonight, and the temps
will allow for easy accumulation. Kept SF numbers very similar
to previous forecasts, and will continue the wint wx advy for
lake eff as is. However, the accums will be rather lame/tame
for lake effect. The shear is pretty strong. Therefore,
organization of the bands may be very poor for much of the time.
Temps will be pretty cold despite the wind/mixing. 8H temps
will be down to about -10C. Mins in the 20s everywhere but the
lower Susq.

Monday looks like the thermal trough lifts away and the lake
effect and clouds lift/end.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended part of the forecast will see the season`s first
real lake effect snow event winding down early in the period,
followed by several days of cool but tranquil weather.

Model soundings show the inversion heights falling quickly
Sunday evening through Monday morning, which will begin the
process of shutting off the lake effect machine. Look for
accumulating snow to continue overnight over the normal snowbelt
areas of the NW and even down into the Laurels-with lesser
amounts. The snows will continue shrinking back closer to the
immediate vicinity of the lakes by Monday morning and by Monday
afternoon there should be little more than a few leftover
flurries as the high builds off to our south and we see the
thermal advection switch from cold to warm.

High pressure will keep conditions dry into Tuesday before a
weakening front sliding by to our north brings the small chance
of a snow shower to northern areas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Another area of high pressure will build east and keep us mainly
dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal
system takes aim at the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect gusty northwest winds today in the wake of overnight
cold front passage. Lake effect snow showers will affect KBFD
with MVFR to IFR conditions through much of the day. Cigs will
drop into MVFR range from scattered snow/rain showers at KJST,
KAOO, and KUNV into this afternoon.

Outlook...

Mon...AM shsn/reduced vsbys possible NW mountains.

Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ006-010>012-017>019-
024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ004-005.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Gartner/Tyburski


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