Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 201523
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL PA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING
INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GORGEOUS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE. SHOULD BE QUITE
A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SREF/GEFS AND ALL MODELS ARE VERY DRY.

THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY.

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR



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