Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270552
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1252 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania tonight, then off
the east coast Monday. Low pressure will track out of the Ohio
Valley and north of the area during the middle of the week
bringing a mild and rainy period, followed by a potent cold
front late Wednesday that will usher in a return back to colder
temperatures for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A clear and chilly evening is underway across central Pa, as
high pressure passes south of the state. Not expecting temps to
fall too far from 03z readings overnight, due to an active
southwest breeze. Also, IR imagery showing mid level cloudiness
streaming toward the area in region of WAA aloft ahead shortwave
over the Mississippi Valley. As this weakening feature moves
east, expect skies to become mostly cloudy before dawn across
the southwest counties of the CWA, causing temps to rise before
sunrise. Blend of LAMP and earlier NationalBlend support min
temps mainly in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast early Monday with
mid-level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave tracking
through the Ohio Valley. Maintained low pops Monday into Mon
night with scattered sprinkles or very light rain showers
associated with weak overrunning. Best chance of measurable
rainfall will be over the Allegheny Mtns, while downsloping
westerly flow results in a very low chance of measurable rain
across the Susq Valley. Despite a good deal of cloudiness
(especially southern Pa), return southerly southerly flow should
push readings into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon afternoon.

Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, but biggest impact will be
thickening of cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prominent southwest to westerly flow will dominate the long term
period with several shortwave trofs dropping into the central
U.S. and providing chances for unsettled weather.

Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge
a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for
light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than
normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days).
By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more
significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage.

Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in
NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns.

Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from
the NW.

Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over
the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north.
The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS sent.

As expected, a clear but breezy night in some spots at midnight.

LLWS early today at BFD, and IPT, given wind max lifting just
north of the region this morning.

Some mid level clouds today, mainly across the south and west.
Perhaps a brief sprinkle.

Should remain VFR through 00Z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. LLWS poss.

Wed night...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds.

Thu-Fri...Sub-VFR likely west in sct snow showers. NW winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross/RXR
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR
LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin



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