Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 310059
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
859 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
MUCH MILDER AS A RESULT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITHI
STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL PA. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING.

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFIES
THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL THERE. A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EVERYWHERE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUGGY AND WARM DAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ABOUND...WORKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWATS OF 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MISS/TENN VALLEYS UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN US.
SREF/GEFS BOTH SHOW A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINS...WHILE A
BLEND OF ALL MODEL POPS IS LOWER...IN THE LIKELY RANGES.

WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PURE TROPICAL
AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH LOCAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL MENTION IN
HWO BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY HIGH...IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FROM
NW TO SE...BUT DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
BRING ONE OF THE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAYS WE/VE SEEN THIS
SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A FRONT FIZZLING OUT
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...AND A STRONGER FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MIDWEEK...BRINGING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE RESULT OF MOIST SERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FURTHER WEST...WIDESPREAD VFR NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLD SHRA EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM KBFD SOUTH THRU KJST.

ALL MDL DATA POINTS TOWARD DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS
OVERNIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVR CENTRAL PA AND
AS LOW LVLS COOL...EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND LOWERING STRATUS IN THE EAST. THE WORST CONDS IN THE FORM OF
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT...WHERE SW FLOW
ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIP
TO IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN AM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT AND EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
RATHER THAN SERLY...BELIEVE MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY FROM KAOO
AND KUNV EASTWARD. THE BEST FLYING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT
KJST...WHERE SOUTH WIND DOWNSLOPING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY KEEP CONDS VFR THERE OVERNIGHT.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL SPREAD
A BAND OF SHRA INTO NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY SUN
AFTN. LOCALIZED VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE LOW CIGS IN THE MORNING...ESP KBFD. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM FOG POSS...ESP W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
WED...PATCHY AM FOG POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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