Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 110854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SLOWLY
THIS WEEKEND...PASSING SOUTH OF IOWA ON SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT BRING MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WARRANT POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MAY HAVE
KEPT TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...COMPLEX IN
CENTRAL NE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH MODELS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST...MAY SEE ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. SHEAR WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THOUGH GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SAT WILL BE THE ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL HELP PUSH THE CAPES INTO THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE FOR SAT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY WELL GO THROUGH THE
DAY. TIMING WILL GE CRITICAL WITH TEMPS. MOS TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE
HIGH FOR MAXES ON SAT...HOWEVER A FEW HOURS OF SUN COULD EASILY
PUSH TEMPS INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT A
SHARP TURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A SHARP TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE TO TWO DAYS. WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD
LOWS FOR TUE MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT LOWS WED WILL
BE WITHIN 5 OF A RECORD AS WELL. HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED WILL BE
NEAR THE COOLEST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE STATE. GRADUAL
WARMING WILL BEGIN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THE WEEK LOOKS
TO BE A DRY WEEK OVERALL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...11/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOR
THE 06Z TAFS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER SE SDAK/NE NEBR AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. EXPECT THE
INTENSITY WILL FADE AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA BUT NORTHERN TERMINALS
STILL SEE A DECENT PRECIP CHANCE BY MID/LATE MORNING AND HAVE
TIMED VCTS MENTION ACCORDINGLY. AT DSM/OTM CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS STARTING IN THE AFTN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. WITHIN SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY MVFR TO BRIEFLY
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...LEE


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