Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 262011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure was in northwest Scott county IA and continued to
track east near Interstate 80. Isolated showers were located in
our far eastern counties, with an area of light rain/drizzle north
and west of the low. Temperatures ranged from the upper 40s at
Independence to the mid 60s in our far south.

Extensive low stratus covered much of the Midwest/Great Lakes
and into the extreme eastern Dakotas/eastern Neb at mid afternoon.
Under this stratus, temperatures were only in the 40s.

Skies were sunny in the western/southern Plains associated with a
high pressure ridge, and readings there were in 70s to lower 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Forecast focus on cloud and temperature trends.

Late this afternoon through tonight: Lingering showers, light rain
or drizzle will end this evening as the surface low tracks east of
the dvn cwa. I have added patchy fog in the grids for after
midnight, along and north of I-80 where 1 to 2 inches of rain fell
last night into this morning. Extensive low stratus will remain
overnight due to a moist cyclonic flow, along with cold air
advection. Late tonight, our far sw cwa should see a decrease in
clouds as high pressure begins nosing into that area. Minimum
temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s at most locations.

Thursday: High pressure will push into the cwa so skies will
gradually become mostly sunny from southwest to northeast, as the
upper level trough (cyclonic flow) shifts off to our northeast.
Timing of the clearing is somewhat tricky but for now the grids
indicate it may be late in the day before the clearing arrives in
our far ne cwa. Afternoon highs should range from around 50 in the
far ne cwa to around 60 in the far sw. However, most of the cwa
will have readings in the 50s, with a decreasing cloud trend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Quiet long term with the exception of a wave Saturday night and
another system late in the long term forecast period.  Main forecast
challenge becomes the the above average temperatures through the
period.  Temperatures on Friday could be close to 80 in some areas.

Friday: SW flow between high pressure to the east of the CWA and a
low over N MN will lead to gradient winds across the area.  These
strong winds will result in deep mixing and high temps in the 70s
across the area.  With this, dewpoints will likely drop.  At this
time, it does not appear there will be a fire weather threat, but
this will need to be monitored.

This weekend, a wave in the flow will lead to showers across the
area late Saturday and into Sunday morning.  Last nights ECMWF had
this and today more of the models had it.  Current blended model
forecast now has this chance for pops. Once this wave moves through,
the large scale flow turns zonal to SW, leading to a warmup across
the area again.

Next week towards the end of the period, the flow turns SW again as
warm air is advected north.  Guidance has a wave moving through the
area, however they disagree on timing and overall evolution of this


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

MVFR/ocnl IFR conds this afternoon as low pressure tracks eastward
along Interstate 80. South winds at KMLI/KBRL with variable wind
to the north. By this evening the low will have pushed into
northern IL with winds becoming northerly at all taf sites. Wind
speeds around 10 knots. Widespread IFR cigs/vis expected tonight
into Thursday morning.




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