Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 131129
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 AM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA. SOME
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS REMAINING FAIRLY CONFINED
TO THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING
THIS OFF THE COAST AND THIS HAS STARTED TO OCCUR IN CRESCENT CITY
AND IS SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. ANY REMAININ FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THESE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN MIXED WELL ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...ABOVE 5000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. FOR NOW HAVE COASTAL
AND VALLEY CLOUDS IN MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY MORNING SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEMS START TO APPROACH THE AREA AND HIGH
CLOUDS START STREAMING IN. WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
DEPENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT AS IT GETS CLOSER.
LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...BUT
TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON TO MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO
CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
WESTERLY SWELL DIMINISHES. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK COL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE
WINDS INCREASE. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SEAS INCREASING.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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