Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 292228
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT
HAS MOVED INLAND LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST...EXPANDING CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO AND DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY
FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND
INTENSIFY ONSHORE FLOW IN DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THOSE AREAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO SWING AROUND THE TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING BRIEF
SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MID WEEK. MODELS MAY BE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT THEY REMAIN INCONSISTENT
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH. THUS...FOR
NOW...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN KEPT DRY IN THE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN DEL NORTE COUNTY
WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND MAY BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT
OF THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...RESULTING IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF ORICK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...GRADUALLY
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR DOWN
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AT UKI...MODELS SHOW BL RH
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WITH MOS GUIDANCE WANTING TO KEEP THE
TERMINAL SKC. THINK THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH KUKI
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.


&&

.MARINE...FRESH S-SW BREEZES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THUS MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WAVES OF 6 FT AT 8 SECONDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT AT 17
SECONDS. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SHORT PERIOD SEAS SUBSIDE...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES.
LATER IN THE EVENING...ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT AT 11 TO 12
SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP IN NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST
COAST. THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MID WEEK
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. IF THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...LIGHT OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO SOME BETTER DRYING OF FUELS. RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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