Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 272214
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
314 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure has built into the region and will
remain over the area through next week. Hot weather is expected
over the interior with night and morning low clouds and fog at
the coast clearing each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the area is warming temperatures
across the area today. Most inland areas will see highs this
afternoon 3 to 7 degrees above normal and a few degrees over
yesterday. Stratus is clearing back to the Redwood coast and the
Mendocino coast has remained clear. Tonight it looks fairly
similar with very little stratus on the Mendocino coast. The
Redwood coast may see some light drizzle again tonight.

Friday a weak shortwave moving over the ridge could bring the
potential for thunderstorms, but current models are not showing
enough moisture or very favorable mid level lapse rates. For now
it looks like we may just see some CU developing over the mtns.
This may keep temperatures the same or 1 to 2 degrees cooler than
Thursday.

Saturday the upper level trough will slowly move out of the area,
but heights build slightly so temperatures may warm 1-2 degrees.
The marine layer will likely continue to be fairly deep.

Sunday and Monday heights will continue to build over the area.
This will likely start to compress the marine layer and limit it
more to the coastal areas. This will help warm the near coastal
areas such as Gasquet, Kneeland, and Boonville. Tuesday the GFS
shows heights backing off slightly with a brief trough. Models are
hinting that ahead of this system there could be a Thunderstorm or
two on Monday over the mountains. This is first run this has been
noticed confidence is low and have not added them to the
forecast.

Current model runs show Wednesday and Thursday to be the warmest
day with heights building to over 596DAM on both the GFS and
ECMWF. It may reach heat advisory criteria with temperatures
around 105 in Ukiah and a couple degrees less than that in
Weaverville. MKK

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight northerly winds will be 10 to 15 mph over
the ridges of Mendocino county. In southern and eastern Mendocino
county we may see poor RH recoveries over the higher terrain. In
Humboldt and Del Norte counties there will be some offshore flow,
but RH recoveries are still expected to continue. Will add a
headline to highlight this threat. This will linger into Friday
morning, but lighter winds are expected for the weekend. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...A consistent "marine stratus" weather pattern has
continued along the North Coast for several days or so. This has
resulted in ACV & CEC airports having mostly overcast conditions
with partial afternoon and some evening clearing. Cigs and Vis
have therefore persistently dropped into the IFR-
LIFR...occasionally MVFR. Guidance and local weather profilers
indicate no appreciative changes in the next 24-36 hours. Inland
mountain areas, including UKI will remain heat up and remain VFR.
TA

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure over the NERN Pacific combined with a
thermally induced trough of low pressure over interior CA will aid
in a prolonged period of northerly small craft winds over the outer
waters during the next 7 days. Borderline gale conditions will be
possible Friday through Sunday due to warming inland temperatures
further tightening the coastal pressure gradient. In addition,
marginal small craft seas (around 6 feet at 6 seconds) are expected
to continue across the inner waters through tomorrow...thus the
current SCA has been extended Otherwise, model guidance continues to
show a long period southerly swell spreading across the coastal
waters by the middle of next week.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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