Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 152248

National Weather Service Eureka CA
248 PM PST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring rain to the region this
evening. A brief dry break Tuesday through Wednesday morning,
then wet weather will return and continue through rest of the


.DISCUSSION...A moderate cold front will cross the north coast
this evening. Some low top convection has spawned a few lightning
strikes over Trinity County this afternoon but any additional
activity will be minimal. Just prior to frontal passage (7-8pm) A
brief period of breezy south winds will be observed along the
coast. A band of stronger south winds will be felt locally along
the coastal hills with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts
from 35 to 45 mph possible later this afternoon and evening. A
wind advisory remains in effect to reflect these higher elevation
winds. Winds will drop off significantly by midnight. Radar
returns currently showing frontal rainfall off the coast and
slowly making its way eastward. The bulk of rain will occur early
this evening but like the wind will diminish greatly by midnight.
Snow levels will fall to around 4500 feet or so later tonight but
should remain above highway pass levels. A brief break in the
weather will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next
weather system approaches to coast. The next front due to arrive
late wednesday will mark the beginning of a fairly wet period
lasting all the way through next weekend. In addition to the
inclement weather very high surf is expected to hit the coast on
Thursday where 25-30 ft breakers are likely. A high surf warning
will likely be issued to address the large surf (see marine
discussion below).


.AVIATION...Rain and showers, associated with an approaching cold
front, will continue to move across the region through the
evening. As of noonday, CIGS/VIS were predominantly VFR with CIGS
mostly in the middle levels to the "upper" lower levels (050 FT).
The advancing weather system scoured out IFR conditions this
morning at coastal and interior terminals. Through the 16/00z TAF
period, robust southerly winds at the coast and LLWS (SFC-015) is
a possibility into early evening...especially at CEC. Most CIGS
and VIS will lower along the frontal boundary, and then show some
improvement behind the front. In Mendocino, interior valleys
including UKI will have deteriorating conditions in the morning as
moist air and rain move over the Coastal Range. /TA


.MARINE...Winds will be maxing out over the coastal waters during
the next few hours with several hours of gale force gusts in the N
outer waters. Seas have come up to 12 to 14 ft across most of the
area. Have extended the N inner and S outer Small Craft Advisories
out in time further in the week. Otherwise, headlines remain
unchanged. Winds will decrease rapidly tonight after frontal
passage. Winds will increase again on Wednesday with slightly
stronger wind speeds than the current event. The main impact of
winds looks to be over the N outer waters once again.

Large W swell continues to sweep across the coastal waters with
periods around 15 to 16 seconds. Surf heights are running a couple
of feet below the ENP forecast at this time, and this should keep
our surf heights below High Surf Advisory criteria. Model guidance
has ticked upward with respect to the very large swells expected to
reach the area Wednesday night, and we will likely need a Hazardous
Seas Watch to be issued on later shifts. In addition, surf heights
are forecast to exceed 30 feet with this swell, and, even if the
guidance trends down a bit, we will likely see High Surf Warning
levels later in the week. Stay tuned! /SEC


CA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ102-104>106.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for

Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ470.



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