Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 311747 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 SITES THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 24Z. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA TERMINALS. ACROSS
KDRT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT 23Z TO 03Z FRIDAY. MVFR
CATEGORY CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-35
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSSF FOR NOW. KDRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS...WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ROUGHLY NEAR A WACO TO
LLANO TO LANGTRY LINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST MODELS INITIATING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
20Z...AS IT REACHES A ROUGH LINE FROM GIDDINGS TO AUSTIN TO
BOERNE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY/GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEING ENHANCED BY PEAK HEATING AND BACKING SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SEA-BREEZE. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE...FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/HWY 90
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PWATS FORECAST 2-2.25 INCHES
POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOADING AND
A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND STALL ON FRIDAY. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30
FOR THE TAF SITES WITH BEST TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BETWEEN 31/21Z AND 01/03Z. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE UPDATES AT OTHER TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES
BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
WILL SHIFT TO NLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE FROPA CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. WEAK LIFT AROUND
850HPA IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 90. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND GREATER CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE FURTHER...AND WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHIP AWAY AT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR FAR SRN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FLARE UP ON SUNDAY GENERALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BY
MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINS PARKED IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
STABILITY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 700HPA...CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FEELING
MORE LIKE MID-JUNE THAN EARLY AUGUST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  71  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  68  91  70 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  94  70  93  71 /  30  30  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  90  69  90  70 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  77  95  76 /  20  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  70  90  71 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  72  94  71 /  40  30  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  69  92  71 /  30  20  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  92  72  91  72 /  40  30  20  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  93  74  92  73 /  40  30  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  94  73  93  73 /  40  30  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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