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000
FXUS64 KEWX 131735 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE AT KDRT AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE I-35 TERMINALS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KAUS AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE
TAF. AFTER 22Z-23Z EXPECTING TO SEE RAINFALL EXITING THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR ALL
SITES AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME S/SW
OVERNIGHT AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
REGION AFTER 10Z AND WILL CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY 14Z. WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013/

UPDATE...
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. IR
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MORE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
MOVING EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK...SO EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE WARM UP
TODAY WITH LOCATIONS RUNNING AROUND 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD. GRIDS
AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013/

AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL GRAZE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOCALLY
LOWERING VSBYS LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. KDRT TERMINAL MVFR CIGS
BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER TN AND NOSES BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS HAS OUR SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WEST TX THE SOUTHERN END OF WHICH HAS MOVED
INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A
WAVE AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH TX. AT THE SAME
TIME A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE ATMOSPHERE LACKS
SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER US AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RETURNING
DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A DEEP TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST TX AND THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD FOR OUR CWA. STARTING
TUESDAY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. MOST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  43  58  34  61 /  50  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  40  57  31  59 /  50  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  41  59  32  60 /  40  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  39  53  31  58 /  50  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  41  61  34  62 /  10  -    0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        52  40  55  30  58 /  50  20  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  41  65  32  65 /  30  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  41  57  32  59 /  40  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  47  58  35  56 /  40  30  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  44  62  35  63 /  30  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  45  65  36  64 /  30  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12