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000
FXUS64 KEWX 250824
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
324 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Much of the overnight rain is staying west of Highway 83 within
the shear axis to the east of the upper level trough. Rainfall
amounts so far across Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney County have
averaged 1 to 3 inches. This area of light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours. There are
additional showers and storms developing over the Gulf of Mexico
and near the coast to our southeast. Could see some of this
activity develop or spread into our southeastern counties and
spread north throughout the day today.

By late this afternoon, the upper low will begin to retreat to
the west which will slightly weaken the upper support for
convection. At the same time, the main trough in the northern
plains will continue to move east. This feature will send a cold
front into Texas this afternoon and the front will approach the
northern CWA around midnight tonight. The boundary should serve
as a focus for the development of numerous showers and
thunderstorms for the overnight period. The center of the surface
trough will be near Val Verde County and this should help to
promote higher coverages and rain amounts in this region through
Monday morning. Rainfall amounts through Monday will average 2-5
inches west of Highway 83, 1-3 inches to the west of the I-35
corridor, and around an inch for the eastern counties.

Given the expected additional rainfall amounts and where the
heaviest rain has already fallen, have opted to issue a Flash
Flood Watch for Val Verde, Kinney, Edwards, Real, and Uvalde
County until 12z Monday. Temperatures behind the front Monday will
be in the lower 70s to middle 80s with lingering rain chances. The
threat of heavy rainfall will be less on Monday as the cold front
pushes south of the area by the afternoon hours and the best lift
will be weak isentropic lift on top of the frontal layer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Rain chances will continue Monday night as weak post-frontal lift
continues across the area. Should finally start to see rain
chances end by Tuesday night as the lift shuts off. Additional
rainfall amounts Monday night through Tuesday night should average
less than a half of an inch. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
will be coolest of the fall season so far with lows in the 50s
across the Hill Country and 60s elsewhere. Highs will be in the
70s and 80s on Tuesday and will remain in the 80s for the
remainder of the forecast period. Beyond Tuesday night, the
forecast will remain rain free.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  71  80  63  81 /  50  60  60  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  70  80  64  81 /  50  60  60  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  70  82  64  81 /  50  60  60  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            85  67  74  60  77 /  60  70  60  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  70  76  62  73 /  80  90  80  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  68  77  62  79 /  50  70  60  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             89  71  81  64  81 /  50  70  60  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  70  80  64  81 /  50  60  60  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  72  85  67  83 /  50  60  50  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  72  82  65  81 /  50  60  60  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           89  72  83  66  82 /  50  60  60  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
counties: Edwards...Kinney...Real...Uvalde...Val Verde.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire