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000
FXUS64 KEWX 121719
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
TIGHT GRADIENT CAUSING STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE.  WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 17Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

AVIATION...
A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED RAPIDLY THRU S TX OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS CONTINUING TODAY. VSBYS
COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR IN BLOWING DUST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS. CIGS NEAR 4 THSD FEET REPORTED AT KDRT LIKELY A DUST LAYER
AS KDLF REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND SATELLITE PICTURES DO NOT
INDICATE ANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING WITH NLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...CURRENTLY ON A LINE FROM EAGLE PASS TO
PLEASANTON TO CUERO. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. THE STRONGEST WINDS AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH A NORTH WIND WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
FROM KAUS...DOWN TO SAN MARCOS AND NEW BRAUNFELS. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX JUST A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW PART OF THE STATE. SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 60S ALL AREAS...WITH THE NORTH AND HILL COUNTRY
BEING THE COOLEST. AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND
LIGHTER WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO REACH INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS...WITH SOME LOW SPOTS BRIEFLY
HITTING THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY OUT WEST AND IN THE CREEK AND
RIVER BASINS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT AS TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE REGION. NO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS AS MOISTURE
THICKENS AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WILL CARRY LOW END POP OVER THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL WASH OUT VERY QUICKLY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS TO COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE FROM HERE WITH
THE LATEST GFS BEING VERY BULLISH WITH RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE FROM STRONG UPSLOPE NE FLOW AND UPPER LOW HANGING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LATEST EUROPEAN HAS IT A BIT DRIER DURING
THIS TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE CUT OFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
MEXICO WITH LESS EFFECTS ON TEXAS. WE WERE CARRYING SOME CHANCE
POP DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEFT THAT ALONE FOR NOW
BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME. KEPT THE MON AND TUE
TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF THE GFS
SCENARIO VERIFIES WITH THE LOW HANGING AROUND CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
STAY JUST SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE CWA AS THE WINDS
START TO DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN RH HITS THE MINIMUMS IN
THE 20-25% RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  68  45  71  58 /   0   0  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  66  40  69  56 /   0   0  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     37  66  43  70  56 /   0   0  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            35  66  41  69  47 /   0   0  -   10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  68  46  76  50 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        35  66  44  68  53 /   0   0  -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             35  69  44  73  53 /   0   0  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        36  65  42  68  56 /   0   0  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  66  43  69  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  68  47  71  58 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           40  68  45  71  57 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30