Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051204
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35 TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z AS THEY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN THE HOUR...SO WILL AMEND TAFS AS NECESSARY
IF THIS OCCURS. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AT ONE OR TWO OF THE I-35 SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK BACK TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING LOW CLOUDS DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS MIXING WILL
EFFICIENTLY TAKE PLACE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO AVERAGE ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 102 IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 111 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND GET COMFY OVER
TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LOOK TO INCREASE
ABOUT 7-8 DAM FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE BUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE PLATEAU. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME HINTS AT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF.
HOWEVER...RATHER THAN COOL THE AREA...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SERVE
TO ONLY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND RAISE MAX
TEMPS TO AT OR JUST ABOVE RECORD HIGHS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. BASED
OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN ZONES
AND COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  74  99  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    101  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           100  75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  77 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       100  76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  76  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  100  77  99  77 101 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3



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