Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 230627
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
127 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
OVERNIGHT SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHILE A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS
TO SET UP SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS IN THE DRT AREA THAT MAY TRANSLATE
TO MOSTLY HIGHER CIGS AT MVFR OR BETTER LEVELS. THE COMPLEX IS
SHOWN BY HI-RES MODELS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED AND FAVORED
TO THE SW OF SAT/SSF...AND SOME SHOW IT BACKBUILDING TO FUSE WITH
NEW INITIATION TO OVER W TX. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATTER AND EXPECT
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG I-35 TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS...AND MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT DRT FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. LATTER PERIODS OF THE DRT TAF ARE LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC...BUT
AM NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF TSRA TO IMPACT THEM
EITHER. A CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT
I-35 TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION RAMPING UP INTO A SOLID AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF I-35 AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
WEATHER FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF FIRST FORECAST
PERIOD. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OUT WEST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A MCS PUSHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.
HIRES MODELS ARE POINTING FOR THIS FEATURE TO COME IN BETWEEN DEL
RIO AND EAGLE PASS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREA ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND
POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES AS IT REACHES HIGHWAY 83.

STILL LOOKING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING WITH HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SAN ANTONIO AREA SO INCLUDED
A QUICK TEMPO GROUP FOR SAT FOR PASSING CONVECTION. OTHER SITES
WILL MAINLY BE ON THE FRINGES OF CONVECTION BUT CANT RULE OUT A
PASSING SH/TS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUD
COVER THINNING...BEING REPLACED BY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS FROM
DISSIPATED CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS START TO REFORM. MVFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AUS/SAT/SSF POSSIBLY HITTING IFR
BY MORNING WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN AND WHERE ACTUAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE ON
SATURDAY...WENT WITH VICINITY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SH/TS ACTIVITY. PLACE PREVAILING TS IN AUS/SAT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE FLOW ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO LAREDO. WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA WERE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN
COLORADO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW
TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN AND ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT
PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH PW GETTING UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 1.90
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THEIR RAIN FROM SATURDAY
EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN PART WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING UP TO SIX INCHES.
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN THIS
EVENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER
THE WEST WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THIS PERIOD. MAIN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WILL BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STATED IN THE FIRST PERIOD SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FOR CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE RESULT. MONDAY A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...BUT
WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN...RUNOFF WILL BE QUICK SO ANY STRONG
STORM COULD BE A LOCAL PROBLEM. MODELS ARE A LITTLE VARIABLE
BEYOND TUESDAY...BUT ALL WANT TO BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP
OVER TEXAS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH. SO...WHILE THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A GOOD FORCING
MECHANISM...THERE MAY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  81  71  82  69 /  80  60  40  60  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  81  70  82  68 /  80  70  40  60  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  82  71  82  69 /  80  60  50  60  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  80  69  81  67 /  80  60  30  50  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  89  70  87  70 /  60  30  20  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  80  70  82  67 /  80  60  40  50  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  84  70  83  70 /  80  50  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  80  70  82  69 /  80  60  50  60  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  80  71  82  71 /  70  70  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  82  72  83  70 /  80  60  50  60  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  83  72  83  71 /  80  60  40  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE


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