Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 110019
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
619 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/

Moisture advection is most robust over the Rio Grande Plains into
the Hill Country where most cigs have fallen to IFR. Vsbys remain
in MVFR over this area, but the SAT/SSF vcnty could see both cigs
and vsbys drop into IFR in the next couple hours. By late evening,
increased model qpf amounts from drizzle would suggest that I-35
sites could approach LIFR cigs with slightly better vsby
conditions. At DRT, more stability is suggested, which could lead
to lowerings of both cigs and vsbys. All sites may few dips into
VLIFR toward daybreak and possibly a few hours earlier at DRT. A
shortwave passing through early Sunday suggests that wake
subsidence and swrly low level winds could bring gradual
improvement during the day Sunday and perhaps a breakout into VFR
skies for a few hours. Raw model RH data looks more pessemistic
than MOS guidances, so will bring back some low cigs into SAT
Sunday evening and keep AUS at MVFR or worse through all TAF
periods.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A mid-level disturbance pushing across the lee-side of the
Rockies is forecast to enhance rain chances across the area
tonight. As the short-wave moves to the east this evening into the
overnight hours, light showers are expected mainly along and east
of Highway 281. Can`t rule out isolated moderate showers across
the coastal plains where pwats will be around 1 inch overnight.
By late Sunday morning, the mid-level disturbance should be
across east Texas with clearing expected from west to east Sunday
afternoon. There may be some lingering moisture/clouds over the
far east counties, however, precipitation is not expected.
Overnight lows will be warmer than previous nights and ranging
from the mid 40s across the Hill Country to lower 50s across the
coastal plains. Sunday`s high temperatures should reach the mid to
upper 60s thanks to a lower south to southwesterly wind flow.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A weak and dry cool front is expected to push across the northern
part of South-Central Texas on Monday. The frontal boundary is
forecast to dissipate across the area while a southwest boundary
layer flow takes control and brings high temps into the 70s.
Several warm and dry days are in store through the middle of next
week. Another weak and shallow frontal passage is expected
Wednesday evening into Thursday and brings slight to low end
chances for rain across the eastern two-thirds of South-Central
Texas. A third and much significant cold front is forecast for
next Saturday night into Sunday. Have introduced slight to low end
chances for rain across the northern part of the area for that
period. A cooler airmass in the wake of the frontal boundary
could bring back some mid 30s temps across the Hill Country Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  69  52  69  52 /  20  10  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  68  53  69  52 /  20  10  -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  67  53  71  55 /  20  10  -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            47  68  47  67  48 /  20  10   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           45  65  46  73  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  69  49  67  49 /  20  10  -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             47  66  47  74  54 /  10  10   0  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        49  67  53  70  53 /  20  10  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   52  70  58  70  56 /  30  20  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       49  66  52  72  56 /  20  10  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           49  67  54  73  56 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway


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