Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 040542 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. AREA RADARS DO SHOW SOME WEAKENING ECHOES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS AT OUR TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. IT IS BASICALLY A
PICTURE PERFECT DAY FOR MAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH.WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ENDED BY THE TIME THE
MAIN LIFT ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS
FEATURE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BY THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ANOTHER ON THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS LEAVING THE MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING WEST
TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ON SUNDAY...A
REPEAT SCENARIO IS EXPECTED BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE A BIT
FARTHER EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AS
THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850
AND 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PUSH TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND STORM CHANCES WILL THEN ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL OF COURSE BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY DRYLINE
STORMS...BUT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DELVE INTO SPECIFICS GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS AND ANY DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  58  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  55  84  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  55  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  55  83  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  58  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  55  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  54  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  55  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  55  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  57  86  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  57  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS



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