Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 220112
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
812 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AND
LATE EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...MAINLY VAL VERDE COUNTY.
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND HOURLY T/TD TO REFLECT
TRENDS. UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND DRT MAY
SEE ONE OR TWO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT
CHANGE FLYING CATEGORY. CONDITIONS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL
BE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS IN DRT TAF
FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM CIGS.
KEEPING CIGS IN FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AFTER NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN FOR 06Z TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY SPLIT IN HALF WITH REGARDS TO THE AIRMASSES.
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS PWATS DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING
TO THE GOES SOUNDER. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING. THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA STILL REMAINS MOIST WITH PW VALUES REMAINING NEAR
2 INCHES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS PREDOMINANT BUT
CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL
CARRY LOW POPS IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY.

THE LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...AND WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING WEAK ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH
PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAIN TO THE AREA...IT
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND BRING DRIER DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ONLY REACH LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WILL
BE RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF A WEAK UPPER LOW...CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW SOMEWHERE OVER
TEXAS OR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS
CONTINUING ON FRIDAY UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE HAD WHETHER OR
NOT TO BEGIN RAISING THE POPS OR PULLING THEM ALL TOGETHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  90  66  86  65 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  66  86  63 /  -   20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  92  68  89  65 /  -   20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  88  64  86  64 /  -   20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  89  70  88  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  65  86  62 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  93  68  92  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  89  67  86  64 /  -   20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  90  67  85  65 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  70  90  68 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  93  70  90  68 /  -   20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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