Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 310646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  87  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  69  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  93  70 /  30  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  77 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER





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