Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 310729
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A MUCH DRIER FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM A RAIN STANDPOINT
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING AWAY AND HAS TAKEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOME
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR E AND SE COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...A STARK CONTRAST FROM WHERE WE COULD HAVE BEEN HAD ERIKA
BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER. INSTEAD...590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP
POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE NORTHERN FRINGES OF RESIDUAL
ERIKA MOISTURE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A JOLT TO POP CHANCES WITH LOW END
LIKELY PLANNED FOR WED AFTERNOON.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN A BIT. BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE REGION AND
WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES...WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. BLEND IS GIVING ME SOME MAX TEMPS THAT
SEEM A LITTLE LOW EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AND PLAN TO TWEAK
THOSE UP JUST A TOUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE STATES LOOKS TO BRING A WEDGE
SCENARIO TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THIS PATTERN REALLY
WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK WHILE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. USING
MOISTURE FIELDS FOR POPS...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME LIKELY COVERAGE
FOR THIS PATTERN BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE
FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING. SOME MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL DUE TO FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM 15Z ON TO SCT-BKN 3500-4500 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ENE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND COULD BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND WINDS TO START.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING IMPROVEMENT AND WIND DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
ATLANTA         85  70  88  72 /  30  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  88  69 /  30  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     82  69  86  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           87  70  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
ROME            85  67  89  69 /  30  10  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  88  70 /  30  10  20  10
VIDALIA         86  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL


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