


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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924 FXUS62 KFFC 141858 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered storms expected through this evening with the main threats being gusty winds (40-50 mph) and locally heavy rainfall. - Heat advisory in effect through 8pm tonight for heat index values in excess of 105. - Increasing chances for scattered to widespread thunderstorms particularly along I-85 tomorrow. Discussion: High pressure over a portion of our area has contributed to the increased temperatures across the area with an emphasis on central and eastern GA with temps currently in the mid 90s which are expected to increase into the upper 90s in this area. Heat index values are also elevated with many areas reaching 105 or higher currently. When it comes to thunderstorms today, the heat is allowing for pop up storms with a remnant boundary resulting in the small cluster of storms over western GA currently. This area and then southeastern central GA are the areas of focus for any thunderstorms today with the seabreeze contributing to this area. Storms should remain sub severe with winds at 40-50mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm inside of the marginal risk (level 1 6 hours tomorrow 5) area which is focused on southeast central GA but chances remain low for this to occur. Going into tomorrow, as the area of low pressure highlighted by NHC pushes westward across Florida while the high pressure stays in place to our west. This would result in an easterly flow pushing up against the current westerly flow which could prove interesting for the area. CAMs have been indicating the potential for a convergence zone over the I-85 corridor which could set up a band over this area of slower moving precip. With tropical PWATs of ~2" this would lead to the potential for flooding if the band is able to stay stationary for a longer period of time. Currently the HREF mean precipitation for this I-85 corridor is ~0.5-0.75" with 90th percentile showing 3-3.5" which would become a concern. Will be keeping an eye on it through the evening and overnight to keep the messaging updated as more runs of the HREF come in. Temps tomorrow could again get close to heat advisory criteria but with the increase PoPs and cloud cover, elected to not go with one but heat index values are expected to be in the 100-104 range tomorrow. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. - Monitoring for potential tropical development in the Gulf mid- to late-week. - Heat index values may be borderline for Heat Advisory issuance through the end of the week. Discussion: The mid-/upper-levels will be characterized by a subtropical ridge over much of the Southeast. In the lower-levels, a disturbance is progged to traverse westward (I`m realizing now that I mistakenly said "eastward" in my discussion yesterday!) into the central Gulf. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing with a 30% chance of tropical development associated with this disturbance in the next 7 days -- specifically, by mid- to late-week. This disturbance will provide lift/ascent for scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development across north and central Georgia. While ensemble guidance suggests that this disturbance -- regardless of tropical nomenclature -- will likely continue to track westward/northwestward into the western Gulf, it will bring with it an expansive moisture field characterized by PWAT values as high as ~2.1 inches. We are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for localized flash flooding as thunderstorms in this soupy environment will be efficient rainfall-producers and will be slow-movers, given weak steering flow. The localized nature of flash flooding (as well as other convective hazards like gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning) will be largely driven by mesoscale features each day, including remnant cloud cover and resulting differential heating boundaries, as well as outflow boundaries from convection earlier in the day or the previous day. WPC has Marginal Risks (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall: across the northeast Georgia mountains on Wednesday, barely clipping the northeast Georgia mountains on Thursday, and across much of north Georgia on Friday. These risk areas will likely be tweaked over the next day or two, depending on how much rainfall occurs in the short term period. Would not be surprised to see issuance of a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) at some point. It looks like increasing coverage of showers and storms, as well as increasing cloud cover, may make for heat index values that are borderline for Heat Advisory issuances through the end of the week. Saturday and Sunday may bring increasing temperatures and humidity across portions of central and eastern Georgia. Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Showers to the west should stay out of the metro and the metro should be relatively dry through the evening. Winds are currently NNW to NNE but kept them at NNW for now but should see them switch over to NE tomorrow and then E into the afternoon as a potential band of precip affects the area. Currently have a prob30 in as early as 20z and will likely last into tomorrow evening. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on TSRA timing and coverage. Medium to high on easterly winds. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 93 73 92 / 20 50 40 50 Atlanta 76 94 75 93 / 10 40 40 60 Blairsville 67 88 68 85 / 10 70 50 70 Cartersville 73 95 73 93 / 10 30 30 50 Columbus 76 97 75 93 / 10 40 30 60 Gainesville 73 93 74 90 / 10 50 50 60 Macon 74 94 73 93 / 20 40 20 50 Rome 72 95 73 93 / 10 20 30 50 Peachtree City 73 95 72 93 / 10 40 30 50 Vidalia 73 94 74 93 / 30 40 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027- 035>039-047>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...Hernandez