Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 220635

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1053 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

Clouds will be on the increase overnight, but the forecast will
remain dry. Along with increased cloud cover, overnight lows will
be several degrees warmer than the past few nights, generally in
the 50s and 60s. No forecast changes are needed at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 739 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift
offshore the eastern US through Sunday. The forecast is expected to
remain dry through tonight, but precipitation chances will increase
later Sunday into Sunday night.

Quite a bit of cirrus has overspread the area today and have
adjusted the cloud cover upwards in the grids. Along with the bkn
high clouds, low level cloudiness will increase towards sunrise. The
timing of the bkn/ovc cloud cover could impact min temps and they
might have to be bumped upwards.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the
west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Instability doesn`t look all that
impressive Sunday night, but a few thunderstorms are possible along
with some locally heavy rain.


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The overall forecast speed of the next system seems to have
increased. A wet Monday is still expected with a few strong
thunderstorms still possible. Will continue to monitor the
potential for any severe storms and flash flooding.


Still some variation concerning timing/path/strength of the system
sweeping through the region at the beginning of the period. However,
Early Monday through Monday evening is still looking like the most
likely timeframe across the forecast area. Models continue to show
minimal instability, but strong dynamics and good shear continue to
point to at least a slight chance for some strong to severe
convection during the day Monday. System moves east quickly overnight
into Tuesday morning, but secondary strong short wave and marginal
residual moisture keeps a slight chance for a few showers across the
far north through the day Wednesday. Good shot of cold air behind
this system brings well below normal temperatures into the state
Tuesday/Wednesday, but models are now showing a pretty quick recovery
by the end of the work week. Another quick moving system sweeps in
for the weekend. Moisture return is not progged to be spectacular,
but should be sufficient for at least a low chance of showers moving
into the northwest by Friday night, spreading across the forecast
area Saturday.


A period of heavy rainfall potential can be expected starting late
Sunday night into Monday night and affecting north GA the most. Storm
total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches can be expected for much of the area
with the greatest amounts in the n GA mountains and the least amounts
across the southern portions of central GA. Minor flooding will be
possible and will be highly dependent on the overall speed of the
system. Conditions will continued to be evaluated for flash flood
potential across portions of n GA.


06Z Update...
VFR conditions to start but ceilings things will transition into
the MVFR range around sunrise. looking for BKN025 by around 10z
with some potential for lower clouds in the 1500ft range. Ceilings
by midday Sunday should lift back into the VFR range but will stay
BKN to OVC. Precip will move into the TAF sites just after 00z Mon
with SHRA/TSRA increasing through the night. Winds will remain
out of the E to SE through the period. Wind speeds will start near
5kts increasing to 10-12 knots this afternoon with gusts to 20kts.
gust will trail off after 00z Mon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on ceilings.
High confidence on other elements.



Athens          77  64  71  54 /  10  70 100  70
Atlanta         77  66  70  54 /  10  70 100  50
Blairsville     71  60  66  48 /  10  70 100  60
Cartersville    76  65  70  51 /   5  80 100  40
Columbus        83  69  74  56 /  10  80 100  30
Gainesville     73  63  69  53 /  10  70 100  60
Macon           82  68  74  54 /  20  70  90  50
Rome            77  65  70  51 /   5  80 100  30
Peachtree City  78  66  71  52 /  10  70 100  50
Vidalia         82  70  79  59 /  30  50  90  70




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