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000
FXUS62 KFFC 270746
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017



.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A surface high centered in the upper midwest will dive quickly to
the southeast, eventually shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast by
late afternoon Wednesday. Meanwhile, a positively tilted trough
aloft will pivot across the region today.  A series of weak impulses
riding the trough will cross just to our north.  Given this, there
might be just enough moisture and lift (thanks to orographic
effects) to squeeze out some showers across the higher terrain by
mid to late morning. The coverage should be fairly limited, but do
expect a bit more cloud cover due to this energy.  The trough will
exit this afternoon with zonal flow moving overhead.  This will mean
clearing skies by the overnight and through much of the day
Wednesday. Some models are trying to develop isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region Wednesday, but given the dry air
mass in place and shallow moisture aloft (with little forcing for
ascent), feel coverage would be extremely limited. However, if we do
see the return flow develop with a bit more moisture aloft, then
perhaps it wouldn`t be out of the question.

Still anticipate pleasant temperature through the short term...still
below normal.  Although, we will see temperatures creeping up to
near normal by Wednesday afternoon under southeasterly flow.


26


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

No big changes in the long term trend for this model run. Still
looking at high pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast with a rapid
return flow into the southeast states for Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have added slight chance for far west central Ga after
06z Thursday...increasing pops area wide after 12z Thursday.
Models still hinting at a weak short wave moving from the northern
Gulf across GA by the end of the week. Otherwise our area remains
in an unstable moist air mass through the period. An upper trough
deepening over the Great Lakes and into the OH Valley over the
weekend may help push a front into TN. So...likely pops look
reasonable for north GA on Saturday and have stayed with that.
Otherwise...mainly chance pops area wide through the period.


41


&&



AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as surface high
pressure dominates the sensible weather. The biggest challenges
are the wind shifts for the metro TAF sites. Based on the latest
high res. guidance, surface obs and VAD wind profile, we will
likely see more NNW winds than NNE. So, have decided to keep the
winds out of the NNW through much of the overnight and through the
day. It does appear that with the high pressure shifting east and
an upper level impulse exiting, that we should see winds
eventually shift to the NNE during the evening. Winds may pick up
a bit during the afternoon, possibly gusting to around 15kts.
Meanwhile, cirrus will continue to stream across the region
through late afternoon. Anticipate some diurnal CU to develop.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to Moderate confidence of wind shifts from NNW to NNE.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  63  86  67 /   5   0  10   5
Atlanta         84  65  86  69 /   5   0   5  10
Blairsville     77  55  80  62 /  20   0   5   5
Cartersville    83  59  87  68 /   5   0   5  10
Columbus        88  68  89  72 /   5   0  10  20
Gainesville     82  62  84  67 /  10   0  10   5
Macon           88  65  89  70 /   5   0  10  10
Rome            84  59  87  68 /   5   0   5   5
Peachtree City  85  62  87  68 /   5   0  10  10
Vidalia         88  69  89  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...26