Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250854
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
354 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Early the morning still a lingering isolated strong to severe storm
possible along leading edge of cold front making its way into NW GA.
Strong winds are main threat given the supportive shear environment
with enough ML/elevated instability (300-500 J/kg).

Coverage should diminish and become just an isolated shower pop
trend after about 7 am as front skirts southeastward. Enhanced NW
gradient winds and gusts 20-25 mph (possibly high in NE mtns) can be
expected this afternoon as the dry airmass is ushered in and parent
1025 mb sfc high quickly slides into the region. See fire weather
section for details on fire danger concerns for today and Sunday.

Tonight should see a long awaited return to what will feel like
actual winter as many locations in north GA should dip into the low
30s with both the radiational and advective cooling components at
play.

Sunday will be less windy with ridge centered close to the CWA...and
subsidence keeping mostly clear skies. Temps should stay right
around climo norms with upper 50s to low 60s across most
locations.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The long term starts relatively quiet will surface high pressure
moving into the atlantic and a moist southerly flow developing.
The increasingly moist flow associated with an upper level
disturbance moving across the area on Monday will cause increasing rain
chances rather quickly and somewhat favoring north GA. Some minimal
instability creeps into the area for the afternoon with a slight chance
of thunderstorms for portions of the western forecast area.
Forecast low temperatures are running within 3 degrees of normal
Sunday night and forecast high are running 2-7 degrees above normal
for Monday.

The GFS and European models are rather consistent with a moist SSW
flow continuing across the area with the best rain chances affecting
n GA until a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday and move
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. During this
period...there is at least some instability across the area so
a slight chance or a chance of thunderstorms will be included in
the forecast. The front will have to be watched for severe weather
potential as there will be 30-40 knots of low level shear associated.
The forecast dries out starting Thursday with only a slight chance
of showers over the southern portions of central GA to start the day...
but any shower chances will be brief on Thursday with a dry day expected
on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal after Monday until
Thursday where temperatures will be close to normal through Friday.

BDL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Borderline Fire Danger conditions this afternoon given forecast
afternoon NW winds near 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph for most locations
and min RH values near 25 percent for portions of east central GA.
Duration of these RH values for now looks like a 3-4 hr period.
Based mainly on wind criteria (borderline RH values in
east)...thinking majority of area except far NW portion (where
heavier precip occurred) has best chance for reaching critical
levels. Will issue Fire Danger Statement accordingly.

Sunday afternoon looks supportive for reaching critical Fire Danger
levels area-wide given forecast RH values near 20-25 percent at
least 4 hrs despite weaker winds. This will be looked at further to
see where the drier fuels exist...though another Statement is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Initial cigs ahead of cold front and associated showers/storms
mainly in 4-6 kft range early this morning with gradual lowering
to MVFR after about 09z near KATL. Tempo group for -SHRA (may need
to include TS if line can hold together) and MVFR VSBY/possible
high end IFR cigs across most sites in 10-14z period then
diminishing coverage as front pushes southeast. Clearing skies
expected by 16-18z. Winds will be initially SW to W at 7-10 kts
ahead of front then enhanced NW 12-14 kts gusting 22-26 kts behind
for the afternoon. Gradual lessening for overnight into Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on cigs and precip coverage this morning.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  32  61  38 /  30   0   0   5
Atlanta         62  34  60  42 /  30   0   0   5
Blairsville     56  26  56  33 /  40   5   0  10
Cartersville    59  31  59  36 /  40   0   0   5
Columbus        66  36  63  43 /  30   0   0   0
Gainesville     62  33  58  39 /  40   0   0   5
Macon           70  35  63  37 /  20   0   0   0
Rome            58  30  59  37 /  20   0   0  10
Peachtree City  63  31  61  37 /  30   0   0   0
Vidalia         76  40  66  45 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker



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