Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 041918
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE ALREADY ESSENTIALLY GONE...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WITH BETTER...
ALTHOUGH STILL SCATTERED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AT LEAST MARGINALLY BETTER CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPULSE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR SOUTH
LIKELY POPS WILL EXTEND INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...BASED UPON
ECMWF/GFS KEEPING SHORTWAVE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

ATWELL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 308 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS AS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH LARGELY
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY BECOMING A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO EMERGE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH GFS NOW SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH
THE TROUGH THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS...BOTH APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES SHOULD
RESULT IN REALLY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS.

SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT
ORGANIZATION ALONG ACTUAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY AND WOULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER 00Z ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO NW FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
POTENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WOULD EXPECT GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS
TO DRY OUT ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SHORTWAVES CLIPPING THE NE CORRIDOR.

RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
MID TO UPPER 90S. LATEST MEX IS ACTUALLY MUCH WARMER WITH 100S FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN
BEFORE COMMITTING TO THESE VALUES.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z...HOWEVER ONLY TAF SITES WHERE THERE
MAY BE SOME IMPACT ARE KAHN AND KMCN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. CHANCES FOR IMPACTS
AT TAF SITES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION FAVORED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          97  73  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
ATLANTA         96  74  93  72 /  20  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     92  67  87  68 /  20  10  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    97  72  93  72 /  20  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        97  76  96  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     94  74  92  72 /  20  10  30  20
MACON           97  74  95  73 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            98  69  92  71 /  20  10  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  97  71  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...20



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