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000
FXUS62 KFFC 010538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AND THE FAR SW STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHT RIDGING OVER GA TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDINESS... CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S... COUPLED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS...
SHOULD ALLOW AREA TEMPS TO DIP CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PROJECTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS... GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.  /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SPARSE MOISTURE BELOW 600MB EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SO THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING OR LATER. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST...WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. IN THE EAST...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN STABLE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER.

COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PENETRATE THE NORTHERN CWFA AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH GA. THE TIMING FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE AFTER 09Z. AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY MODEST...UNDER AN
INCH THROUGH 12Z AND AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500-1800 FEET.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/
SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EXITING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...COULD SEE LIGHT
SNOWFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT BRASSTOWN BALD THAT SHOWS SATURATION
BELOW 800MB WITH TEMPS LESS THAN FREEZING. SIMILAR WITH THE
NAM BUFR BUT A LITTLE SLOWER TO BRING IN THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN EXITING MOISTURE ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AFTER
12Z MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE FRONT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE RETURN OF
THE RAIN FOR THE LATE WEEK SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION LOCATION FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. ECMWF KEEPS THE
RAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS IT ACROSS THE WHOLE
CWA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SPREADING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH WITH THIS GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GA...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE.

FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW...AND RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE AOB 25
PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED THE FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 23Z.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
TRANQUIL START TO THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS WILL CHANGING QUICKLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE FIRST THING ON THE INCREASE WITH MVFR DECK MOVING IN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING SO AFFECTING MCN AND CSG FIRST
AND THEN THE ATL SITES. -RA AND IFR CIGS IN THE OFFING FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DROPPING AS WELL TO AROUND 2SM AT MOST SITES.
WINDS SHIFT WITH FRONT GETTING NEARER AROUND 05Z TO THE SW AND
INCREASING TO 12 KTS WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO
WILL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS CLOSELY WITH 35 KTS AT 2K
FEET MOVING IN FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING AROUND 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR CIG TIMING AND LLWS.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  47  25 /  40 100  40   0
ATLANTA         56  41  42  27 /  70 100  40   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  36  39  22 /  70 100  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  39  41  23 /  80 100  30   0
COLUMBUS        63  47  48  28 /  60 100  20   0
GAINESVILLE     51  41  43  26 /  70 100  40   0
MACON           65  51  52  26 /  30  90  40   0
ROME            54  38  41  22 /  80 100  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  43  45  24 /  60 100  30   0
VIDALIA         67  54  57  32 /  20  60  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE