Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 061147
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OVER NE AL MOVING NE INTO NW GA.
THEY APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE STATE. FOR THE SHORT TERM WE APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO A
BIT OF A DRIER PATTERN AS A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WE SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT THEY
SHOULD JUST BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED.
THIS DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL GA BY TUES
MORNING BUT MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN RIGHT BACK INTO NW G BEHIND THIS
DRY AIR BY TUES AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF THE CWA SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MAJOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM JUST CONTINUED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE SO WOULD STILL EXPECT LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH THIS SAME
PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THU AND FRI AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
BUT NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE ALL POINTS TO AT OR
BELOW CLIMO POPS THROUGH WEEKS END.

BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.
WOULD IMAGINE MODELS ARE BEHIND THE CURVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SEEM TOO KEEN ON GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
SUBSEQUENT RUNS...IF RIDGE IN FACT IS AS STRONG AS
ADVERTISED...RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME DOWN IN THE MODELS AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE THIS IN NEW GRID SET.

LIKEWISE...MODELS LIKELY TOO COOL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANING
TOO HEAVILY ON CLIMO AND WILL GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH 595DM RIDGE BUILDING IN.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH CEILINGS IN
THE 500 TO 1000FT RANGE. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCT OUT
THROUGH 14-16Z GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE A LITTLE LIGHT THIS MORNING
BUT ONCE THE LOW CEILINGS MOVE OUT AND WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
THEY SHOULD STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  93  71 /  30  20  30  20
ATLANTA         86  72  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     82  63  86  65 /  30  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  91  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        87  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     86  70  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           90  71  94  72 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            87  70  91  70 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  86  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         90  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



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