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000
FXUS62 KFFC 111138 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM.  SHORT TERM
MODEL SIN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MAINLY COOL DRY FORECAST ON TAP.  AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TODAY...WITH A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TOMORROW WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FOR
TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY FOLLOWED BY JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE BEHIND TROUGH OFF THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE PRETTY
COLD TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...INCREASING THICKNESSES ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INDUCES SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUMP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A
DIABATICALLY ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD SETUP FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE
KEPT TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH 1-1.5" QPF
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CAPES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT...AND AT
THAT MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG. ECMWF HAS A SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHING UP SUNDAY MORNING SO HAVE HUNG ONTO HIGHER POPS
BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS FINALLY KICKED OUT. MEAN
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING TEMPS AVERAGE TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
BY 13-14Z BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT 3KTS OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD STAY EAST
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN 23-00Z...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 5-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   0
ATLANTA         55  31  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  25  45  25 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  26  45  25 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        59  35  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     54  31  49  31 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           59  30  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            55  23  45  25 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  28  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         60  40  59  35 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ATWELL