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000
FXUS62 KFFC 101929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT ENDS WITH A BANG. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES BUT THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A WAVE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SE TX GULF
COAST. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY NOT MAKING MUCH EASTERLY PROGRESSION
BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS
DEVELOPING WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND WILL START TO SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA BY 12Z TUE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL GA BY 18Z-22Z TUE.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WHICH IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM... SO FOR NOW STILL KEEPING THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. BY 15-18Z WED THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE WILL STILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MOST PLACES ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD SEE 3/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAINFALL TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ON
THE WARM SIDE WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND NIGHT
TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

01

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
CLEARING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT... WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING A FEW AREAS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA TO SEE FREEZING TEMPS
THURSDAY MORNING... WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND FREEZE WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THEN LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY... WITH GFS
SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER ON MONDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY-MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. /39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE W TO NW
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO 8KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE
SOME LOWER FEW TO SCT CLOUDS TUE MORNING AROUND 2500FT TO 3000FT.
NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  79  59  68 /   0  20  90  80
ATLANTA         51  76  60  63 /   0  20  90  70
BLAIRSVILLE     42  73  56  59 /   0  20  90  80
CARTERSVILLE    45  76  58  65 /   0  20  90  70
COLUMBUS        54  78  60  71 /   0  30  90  60
GAINESVILLE     48  76  59  65 /   0  20  90  80
MACON           51  79  61  71 /   0  20  90  70
ROME            44  77  57  63 /   0  20  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  77  57  66 /   0  20  90  70
VIDALIA         53  81  60  77 /   0  20  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01