Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 282052
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN WYOMING IS ADDING STRONG ASCENT OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA. THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW IS
ACCENTUATING THE LIFT AS THE EXIT REGION NOSES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. STORMS ARE QUITE STRONG IN A SIMILAR REGION AS YESTERDAY
AND EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND SOME LARGER HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE JET
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ENHANCED TO THE SOUTH WITH ADDED INSTABILITY COMING FROM THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH WITH THE JET. THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THINGS WILL BE SETTLING DOWN IN THE SOUTH
AS THE JET SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UP NORTH COLD ADVECTION AND
ENERGY IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH IS SETTLING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...SHOULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BACK TOWARD THE CRAIG AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...PASSES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOME WEAK FORCING PERSISTS OVER NW COLORADO WHERE STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO FIRE CONVECTIVE
STORMS OVER ALL THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MORE SUNSHINE
OVER THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND THERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FINAL TIME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FAST TRANSITION OCCURS THIS WEEKEND FROM STORMY AND COOL TO
DRIER AND MUCH WARMER. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING AFTER TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AND SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5
DEGREES WARMER. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY DRY.

MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED EAST AND FLATTENED AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL IN WASHINGTON-OREGON. SW GRADIENT
WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
VERY WARM SUNDAY.

TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DEEPENS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH. MOISTURE LOOKS
VERY LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SW GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST TROPICAL LOW OF THE
SEASON THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OFF THE MEXICAN WEST COAST LOOKS
TO HEAD WEST AND NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

INSTABILITY ALONG RIDGE TOPS ALLOWING LATE MORNING CLOUDS TO FORM.
THE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT
THE FORECAST TERMINALS AND THIS TREND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE NEW TAF
FORECAST WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER
TERMINAL SITES HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THREATS INCLUDE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT



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