Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 021646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL SITES DROPPED BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
FREEZING CONDITIONS WERE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT...SO WILL EVALUATE THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THE NEW MODELS ROLL IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC PCPN STILL ONGOING. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
COULD LINGER UNTIL AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. VALLEY SPOTS THAT HAVE
ALREADY CLEARED OUT MAY OBSERVE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT
THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OROGRAPHIC CLOUD MAY HANG
TOUGH ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE PARK/GORE RANGES...BUT THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS
STAY ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT NW BREEZES SHOULD QUICKLY END AROUND
SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY STRONG INVERSIONS TO
FORM OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. WITH A WET BOUNDARY LAYER
AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW INVERSIONS WILL STAY IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
COLORADO BETWEEN A STRONG CALIFORNIA RIDGE AND A POLAR JET DIVING
INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AND THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION
AND TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW MORE DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG REDEVELOPING ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS AND IMPACTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL
FOG TONIGHT. THE YAMPA AND EAGLE RIVER VALLEYS WOULD BE THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR FOG IF IT IS TO OCCUR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGJT


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