Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 210849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
349 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

An upper trough will exit the area this afternoon, but the upper
flow will remain northwest and cyclonic through tonight. Cold air
flowing over Lake Superior and other smaller lakes should continue
to produce lake effect clouds over much of the region, though
there will be breaks in the clouds too.

Some lake effect showers are possible over Vilas county and along
the lake Michigan shore this morning. Highs today will be a few
degrees below normal. Stratocumulus clouds may begin to dissipate
this evening but some middle clouds will likely arrive later
tonight as some jet energy moves through. Lows will depend on how
much clearing there is, but should be close to normal in most

Saturday should be partly sunny and a little milder as weak upper
ridging approaches and low level warm advection increases. highs
will be around five degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region into the
middle of next week. An upper level disturbance and cold front
moving across the region will bring a chance of rain showers to
northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Above normal temperatures
are expected with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures
return closer to normal on Monday and Tuesday. The next chance
for rain will be late Monday night and Tuesday, with an even
better chance for rain on Wednesday as a strong low pressure
system passes to the south of the area. It will be a cold rain
with 850mb temperatures only a few degrees above 0C. Only
minor changes made to the forecast.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Low cloud trends are the main aviation forecast issue. Other than
a break in the clouds which developed in north-central Wisconsin,
cloud deck has remained solid. Still think some thinning of the
clouds and breaks in the clouds could develop over those portions
of east-central/northeast Wisconsin where the northwest flow will
have a weak downslope component, but confidence in that is waning.



LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.