Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 061038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. A RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

635 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1022 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND CREST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWED PATCHY LOW AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS FORMING ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR
TODAY...ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. WE`LL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER
THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
COAST WHERE THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A CLEAR START TONIGHT...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S NEAR THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM APPEARS MOST ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS COLD
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FAIRLY STOUT S/WV
RIDGE IS PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SEEMINGLY CONTINUES TO SLOW
FROPA IN MODEL FORECASTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EXIST A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE
RATHER POOR...AS ANY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP
TO OUR SW WITH PERSISTENT ERN TROFING. EVEN SO...DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE FOR MODEST
INSTABILITY. THE OTHER ISSUE IS FORCING ALOFT...AS S/WV TROF WILL
BE SHEARING OUT OFF TO THE NE. THIS LEAVES THE STRONGEST WIND
FIELD ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND SHEAR LACKING ACROSS NH AND WRN ME.
LATEST SPC SREF SUGGEST 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ABOUT A COIN
FLIP ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WHICH WOULD BE JUST ABOUT ENOUGH FOR
POSSIBLE STORM ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SPC EXTENDED A MARGINAL SEVERE TSTM RISK INTO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A DOWNSTREAM CONTINUATION OF SWODY2 MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. A VERY WARM AND MOIST COLUMN
WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT TO WATER LOADED WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RNFL.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST...HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
CONTROL. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW BECOMES
SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...KEEPING THE REAL HOT AND HUMID AIR S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE IN THE PERIOD WRN RIDGING TRIES TO RELOAD...WHICH
IN TURN WILL HELP HEIGHTS TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. S/WV
DROPPING INTO THE TROF WILL TRY AND DRAW MOIST AIR MASS BACK
NWD...GIVING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...MAINLY VFR THRU TONIGHT...EXCEPT
FOR VLY FOG VCNTY OF KHIE/KLEB THIS MORNING...AND PSBLY TUE
MORNING AS WELL. SCT MVFR TUE AFTERNOON IN SHRA AND TSRA.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED. BEST CHANCE
FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEARS TO BE WED...AS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. MOST LIKELY IS SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLD IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA AS FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. VFR RETURNS THU THRU
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL
BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THE EXTENDED. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SWLY FLOW OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDWEEK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF 5 FT
SEAS WED BEFORE SUBSIDING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



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