Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 200324 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1124 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose
meanders well off the New England coast tonight and through the
end of the week. High pressure will hold over the region
Thursday through early next week, with temperatures remaining
above normal.


Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...A High Surf Advisory will remain in
effect through at least Wednesday evening as Jose meanders south
and southeast of New England.

Bands of precipitation from Jose finally reaching the Maine and
New Hampshire coastline as of the mid afternoon hours. These
showers will continue to move north before reaching drier air
and lack of dynamic support over central areas. Have likely to
categorical pops for tonight for the coastline, with diminishing
pops as you head into central areas. This is well needed rain
for the coast.

Most areas should pick up around a half inch along the
coastline where rainfall due to the lack of precipitation the
last couple weeks in this region. The 12Z Nam appears to be
suffering with convective feedback in the precipitation fields.

Have included patchy dense fog for tonight. However, the low
visibilities may not be as widespread as last night due to a
gradual increase in the northeasterly gradient and anticipated
shower activity which could act to mix out the moist lower
layers of the atmosphere.


Jose will continue to meander slowly northeastward on Wednesday
per the latest official NHC forecast. Jose will likely cross
over the 40N/70W benchmark as it continues to slowly push
northeast, then east. Cyclone phase diagrams indicated this
system will continue to have tropical characteristics for a
prolonged period of time as it remains over the Gulf Stream.

The greatest chance for shower activity will be early Wednesday
morning and right along the coast. Thereafter, the chance for
any precipitation lowers as the system pulls off the the east
and allows drier northerly winds to enter southern Maine and New

Mild conditions are expected Wednesday over northern areas
where sunshine is expected. A little cooler near the coast where
the showers will be gradually exiting out to sea. Still, it will
continue to be mild for this time of the year with temperatures
above normal.

With this drier air, fog should more limited Wednesday night, at
least when compared to the last several nights.


The tropical system Jose well southeast of Cape Cod will remain
quasistationary through the weekend. Meanwhile, a high amplitude
blocking ridge builds over the Great Lakes and will extend across
northern New England providing a long stretch of great early fall
weather with dry conditions. Warm air aloft from the midwest will
spill over the ridge into the region providing well above
normal daytime high temps. H85 temps of +14c to +17C will make
it feel more like a return to summer.


Short Term...Areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in patchy dense fog
overnight. Conditions gradually improving from north to south on
Wednesday to VFR with drier air entering the region. Mainly VFR
for Wednesday night, but it is possible that there may be some
patchy inland valley fog if the gradient can relax.

Long Term...VFR.


Short Term...SCA for seas and winds will continue over the
waters through at least Wednesday as Jose remains to our south
and east.

Long Term...SCA due to swells from Jose will likely be needed
possibly into the weekend.


Building long period swells will continue to finally reach the
coast this evening. With a relatively high astronomical tide
tonight (10.7 feet in Portland), have issued a coastal flood
statement of the beaches south of Portland. Long period,
building swells will continue to approach the coastline during
this period leading to minor splash-over and some beach erosion.


ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>154.



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