Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 261020
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
620 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...UPDATED TO PRETTY MUCH REMOVE POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR ERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVING OUT AND WARM AIR MOVING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE THIS
MORNING WITH PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUSLY...SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THRU. SFC FRONT AT 07Z LOOKS LIKE ITS RUNS NW-SE FROM
KHIE- KPSM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD THIS MORNING. FAIRLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY SHRA
SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE CWA 09-12Z....FROM SW- NE.

TDS ALREADY RISING S OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEY WILL CREEP UP INTO
THE LOW 60S TODAY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW
WINDS COULD KEEP THEM A LITTLE LOWER TODAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE.
ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING...SO COASTAL AREAS FROM CASCO BAY S WILL WARM INTO HE
80S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MID COAST THE COOLEST...GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTER A CLOUDY START SHOULD SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS WANT TO POPS A FEW
SHRA OVER THE TERRAIN OF NH OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND
TERRAIN CANNOT REALLY ARGUE WITH IT...BUT THERE IS REALLY A LACK
OF FORCING ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COULD SEE SOME COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP AS WELL.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS /FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY...GIVEN
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND EXPECTING THE DAY TO START WITH SOME
SUN...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MTNS,...AND JUST A BIT COOLERAT
THE COAST AS THE FLOW DOES WEAKEN A BIT...AND THERE WILL BETTER
TURNING ONSHORE.

THE DAY GETS MORE INTERESTING AS A FLATTENING 500MB WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE BEST
DYNAMICS SHOULD LIFT N OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEIGHT FALLS AND ENOUGH INCREASE IN MID LVL WINDS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. COULD
SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WHICH HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF FORMING OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND CT VLY. ALSO OF CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINERS...AS PWATS CLIMB TO
WELL ABV NORMAL AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TURNS JUST ENOUGH FOR
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THAT WILL WASHOUT AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD...AND
WILL LKLY SEE SOME VLY FOG AT KLEB/KHIE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.


LONG TERM...

THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT...AREAS OF MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT...BUT SUB-SCA...SW FLOW IS HELPING BUILD
SWELLTO AROUND 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHOULD HOLD BLO
SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TO 5FT OR LESS INTO WED...BUT COULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.


LONG TERM...

THU AND SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...


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