Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 200311
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1011 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High
pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest
over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on
Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm
front will push east through the region Tuesday night. Weak low
pressure will move east through the northern Great lakes on
Wednesday and will continue east through southern Quebec
Wednesday night. A trailing cold front will gradually drop south
through the region on Thursday...stalling over southern New
England. The front will lift northward as a warm front on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Have updated the grids based on current conditions and model
data for the overnight period. Cooler air will continue to
gradually filter into the region on northwest winds after a day
with high temperatures in the 50s for many areas.

Clouds have increased in southern areas despite the developing northwest
downslope flow. Also, will be monitoring once again for
possible refreeze from today`s snowmelt. Have updated the
Hazardous Weather Outlook based on this possibility.

Have upped pops over northern and central areas in association
with a secondary cold front. Rain and snow showers will
continue to slip out of the mountains from time to time. Have
resent snow probabilities to the web.

Prev Disc...
Surface cold front has moved through the area. The
wind shift went through Portland at 2pm and we`ll see
temperatures continue to fall this evening as northwesterly flow
and cold air advection increases. Prior to the arrival we saw
some very warm temperatures with readings in the 50s common
throughout the area. Winds will increase overnight as cold air
advection takes hold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday surface high pressure will move in bringing and end to
the northwesterly winds as the pressure gradient moves off to
the east. Monday will be mostly sunny although not quite as warm
as today with highs nearing 40F rather than 50F. By Monday
night we see increasing heights aloft however the high directly
overhead with clear skies should allow for good radiational
cooling. Have dropped temperatures to just below zero in the
northern mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Above normal temperatures and a continued break from high impact
weather will continue for much of the extended period. We`ll see
several other days with readings over central and southern
sections nearing the 50s and even 60 on Thursday.

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday allowing for warm air
advection ahead of a frontal system. Warm air will spread over
colder air at the surface late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning creating a wintry mix for a few hours. This may result
in slick roads and walking surfaces.

A slight chance of light rain and snow showers will continue
for the higher terrain off and on with near zonal flow in place
and another frontal fracture approaching late in the week. The
next system bringing any widespread precipitation will occur
next weekend when a deeper short wave spurs coastal low
development near the Gulf of Maine.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions will continue through Monday night.
The one exception will be the mountains where areas from HIE to
B80 will see MVFR with possible shsn.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Tuesday. MVFR
conditions will be possible Tuesday night in light mixed
precipitation. VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Cold front will cross the waters this evening with
cold air advection and northwesterly flow moving in behind the
front. winds will increase to around 25-30kts and the small
craft advisory has been extended through Monday.

Long Term...No increased winds or waves over the waters to
speak of until next weekend when coastal low pressure may
develop.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon



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