Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 310143
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture embedded in the trades will cause passing showers mainly
for windward and mauka areas overnight. Beyond that the weather
pattern will be highly dependent on the tracks and intensities of
Hurricane`s Madeline and Lester. A Hurricane Warning is in effect
for The Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Maui County due to the proximity of Hurricane Madeline.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered far north of the area places the islands
in a moderate trade wind environment. An area of moisture embedded
in the trades will provide for passing showers mainly over
windward and mauka areas overnight.

The weather pattern for the remainder of the week and on through
the weekend will be highly dependent on the tracks and intensities of
both Hurricane`s Madeline and Lester.

The latest forecast for Hurricane Madeline is for it to pass by
near or just south of The Big Island Wednesday night and Thursday,
and pass by south of the remainder of the state Thursday and
Thursday night. For more details on Madeline, please refer to
products issued by The Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Winds and heavy rain associated with Madeline are expected to
impact The Big Island and possibly Maui County with less wind and
rain effects for the rest of the state. For more details on these
conditions, please refer to the Hurricane Madeline Local Statement.

After the passage of Madeline, there will be a brief period of
typical trade wind weather as high pressure remains far north of
the area.

As we head into the weekend, Hurricane Lester is forecast to pass
by just north of the state. For more details on Lester, please
refer to products issued by The National Hurricane Center in
Miami, Florida.

Depending on the track and intensity of Lester, heavy rain and
winds could impact portions of the state over the holiday weekend.

After the passage of Lester, high pressure will rebuild north of
the area with a trade wind weather pattern returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture ahead of Hurricane Madeline will continue to pass through
the islands this evening, bringing lowered VIS/CIGS along
predominately windward areas. AIRMET SIERRA for mountain
obscuration is posted along all north and east slopes. A pinch of
drier air will move across the Big Island and Maui in the next few
hours, but it expected to be short lived as the peripheral bands
of Madeline approach. Madeline is approximately 285 NM east of
PHTO, as of 0130z. Overnight, the eastern portion of the Big
Island should expect to see prolonged periods of MVFR. Conditions
are expected to further deteriorate Wednesday morning as Hurricane
Madeline moves closer. Wind speeds are also expected to start to
jump up tomorrow, as the gradient between the high pressure north
of the state and Madeline tightens. AIRMET TANGO for low level
turbulence will need to be considered then

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be highly dependent on the track and intensity
of Madeline and will be highly variable from one location to
another.

High surf along east facing shores can be expected in association
with Madeline. The largest waves will be along east facing shores
of The Big Island with heights becoming lower as you go up the
island chain.

Winds, seas and surf will decrease after the passage of Madeline
but will once again increase this weekend in association with
Lester.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Hurricane Warning for Big Island.

Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday
night for Big Island.

Tropical Storm Watch for Molokai-Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui.

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Windward-
Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West.

Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM HST Friday for
Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward
Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-
Kaiwi Channel.

&&

$$

Synopsis/Discussion/Marine...Burke
Aviation...Eaton



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