Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 301330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONT WILL AFFECT THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. A
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE GENTLE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED WINDWARD SHOWERS AND DRY WEATHER
OVER LEEWARD AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY.
SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY THIS MORNING....BUT SINCE THE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING BY RATHER QUICKLY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND PRODUCE GENTLE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS WHILE LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

A HUGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SAG SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN
VEER OUT OF THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BANDS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THESE
FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ISLANDS RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND THE WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN...SO DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BANDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BAND WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI THIS MORNING AND MVFR CEILING COULD SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEW NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL BE MORE
NORTHERLY THAN RECENT SWELLS AND WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON WEST
FACING SHORES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
COMBINED SEAS RISING OVER 10 FEET DUE TO THE NORTHWEST SWELLS MAY
REQUIRE A SCA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$
DONALDSON





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