Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 011408
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYS NEAR THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO STILL DEPICT A RATHER UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
LESS WEATHER OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AIR MASS IN
THE ISLAND VICINITY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE STABLE. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STATIC IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORS JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP DURING NIGHT AND DAY. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS
UNDER DAY TIME HEATING. SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BRING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE AND IT MAY FEEL MUGGY DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS
UNDER NIGHT TIME COOLING.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS STILL INDICATE THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY MOVE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SURFACE FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE MORE SOUTHEAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT. THEREFORE THE CURRENT WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER MAY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TCU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUILDING OVER THE ISLANDS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY AS THESE CLOUD BUILD UPS OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS TO SOUTH FACING SHORES TODAY...AS THE READINGS FROM
THE NEAR SHORE BUOY JUST SOUTHWEST OF OAHU STAY RATHER ELEVATED. AS
SUCH...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS UNTIL THURSDAY. ALSO A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
PEAK TODAY WITH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SURF FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. A SERIES OF MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...FOSTER
REST...HUI





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