Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 050554
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL OFFSHORE AT 0530Z. THE MAIN ISSUES ARE
WINDS...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KCLL AND KUTS BEFORE SUNRISE..

THE PRECIP TYPE OF BOTH KCLL AND KUTS LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A MIX
OF RAIN AND ICE PELLETS THROUGH 10Z...AND IF THE TEMPERATURES
FALL ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY AROUND 13Z
AT BOTH SITES AND LIFT THE CEILINGS TO VFR BY 19Z.

FOR THE REMAINING SITES...THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FROM
KCXO THROUGH THE METRO HOUSTON SITES AND MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WINDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE
COAST BY 11 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND CALDWELL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 37 DEGREES. LEANED TOWARD
THE RUC FOR HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
REMOTELY CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS
ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH AND THAT COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH SE TX AROUND 09Z AND WILL GENERATE A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. HIGH POPS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE BUT BUMPED UP QPF TOWARD THE COAST AND RAISED POPS FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND LAST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...HAVE MORE
CONCERN THAT WINTER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AM HESITANT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT
RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP FREEZING LAYER
BETWEEN 500-3500 FEET WHICH APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TO SLEET. WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNINGS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED. NEW ZONES OUT BY 945 PM. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  37  27  47  32 /  90  40  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              37  41  29  49  34 /  80  60  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  43  35  47  41 /  60  50  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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