Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 252109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
409 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Regional temperatures reaching the 90 F mark today...with increasing
humidity...a signal of what to expect in the coming days. Very warm
and humid weather over the next several days. More overcast skies
will have mornings starting out warm with maximum temperatures still
forecast to reach the average upper 80s. This will equate to upper
90 to lower 100 heat indices for a couple of hours during the mid
to late afternoon hours.

The late week near-zonal mid to upper flow pattern will undergo
slightly change as a Gulf-centered upper ridge builds up to the
northwest in response to deepening upstream Great Basin upper
troughing. This will likely make Saturday the warmest day of the
week. A fairly tight onshore pressure gradient between Florida-
based high pressure and lowering western Plains pressures will
produce a few days of breezy onshore winds. Sunday will be the
transition day as the upper levels become more diffulent and lower
level moisture picks up to well above normal seasonable values.
An approaching weak cold frontal boundary stalling somewhere over
southeastern Texas early Monday could easily be the focus needed
to generate (frequent) periods of showers and storms. A series of
shortwave trough passages both on Monday and then again on Wednesday
will keep precipitation chances high early next week. Way too early
to determine QPF or the location of most the susceptible counties
(for strong to severe weather) but confidence is growing that there
will be a rain event on Memorial Day...this trend may easily continue
for a third year. As of now...the main threat will be from slow
moving storm clusters putting down high enough rainfall rates that
could induce localized flooding issues. Tuesday and Wednesday`s
convective behavior will be highly dependent upon Monday`s chain
of events. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Strong onshore winds will persist tonight in response to low pressure
over southwest Kansas and high pressure over the eastern Gulf. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters for tonight. A moderate
onshore flow will prevail through the weekend with low pressure over
West Texas and high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A SCEC will
likely be required at times through the weekend. A weak cold front will
approach SE TX Sunday night but is not forecast to make it off the coast.
Lighter onshore flow is forecast for the beginning of next week. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible on Memorial Day and mariners should
remain alert for lightning and possibly variable winds in and near storms.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  91  76  93  76 /   0  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              74  89  78  92  78 /   0  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  85  80  86  79 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/43/DO



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.