Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 232022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have warmed to near 90 and some showers are beginning
to develop. Should continue to get some isolated/widely scattered
showers through about 600 PM before the loss of heating puts the
kibosh on precip. SREF ensemble guidance suggest some potential
for patchy fog late tonight and this seems reasonable as NAM
soundings show mstr trapped beneath a strong capping inversion.
PW values drop to around 1.45 inches on Sunday and convective
temps remain in the upper 80`s. Fcst soundings look dry so not
convinced the area will receive much more than an isolated
shower...mainly over the SW zones (deeper mstr). Weak upper
level ridging will try to develop over the western Gulf between a
deep upper level tough over the intermountain west and Maria to
the east. The ridge will impart some subsidence over the region
and despite some increase in moisture, rainfall will likely remain
sparse through mid week. 850 mb temps remain warm through Thursday
and high temps will remain around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will
remain unseasonably warm as SE winds maintain sfc dew pts in the
lower and middle 70s.

Finally some relief from the warm and humid conditions as cold
front approaches the region. A strong upper level trough over the
Great Lakes will produce a strong northerly upper flow and this
will help suppress the upper ridge and a sfc cold front will
undercut the ridge on Friday. Cooler and drier air will filter
into the region late Friday. The ECMWF is wetter next Saturday as
weak isentropic upglide behind the front could bring some light
rain while the GFS looks considerably drier. For now, have leaned
toward the drier GFS. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A light to moderate onshore flow with 2 to 3 foot seas should
prevail into the mid part of the upcoming week.  Tides will run
slightly above normal with the onshore flow, but should not reach
any coastal impact criteria. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can
be expected daily, especially during pre-dawn hours.

A cold front will move offshore late next week and will increase
winds and seas by next weekend.   44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  90  72  90  72 /  20  10  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              73  90  73  89  73 /  20  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  89  80  88  79 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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