Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 250239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
939 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Earlier showers and storms generally north of the region have
dissipated but cannot rule out a stray shower (10 PoPs) over the
northern half of the forecast area tonight as a weak mid-level
shear axis translates farther into the region from Central Texas.
Current forecast handles this well and the main update was to
increase sky cover and update hourly temperatures and dew points
based on trends. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the mid 70s
to low 80s under partly cloudy skies.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

A patch of light to moderate rain remains north of KCLL but this
area of precip is slowly moving south and may yet impact the
airport before dissipating around 02z with the loss of heating.
Cirrus or Saharan dust will continue to create BKN cigs at 25000
feet with no significant impact expected. Could get a brief window
of MVFR cigs around sunrise but impact should be an hour or less
and coverage will be spotty so will hint at the lower cig with a
sct015-sct025 deck in the morning. Winds will gradually slacken
tonight as the gradient weakens. WInds are expected to be more SE
on Tuesday as high pressure develops over southern LA. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

Another line of storms beginning to fill in just north of the CWFA
this afternoon...and is expected to move into our NW counties thru
the early evening hours. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are pos-
sible with these storms before sunset.

The upper ridge of high pressure building into the region from the
west will help to keep POPS low and temperatures high across SE TX
tomorrow. Have kept the mention of isolated POPS in for Weds given
the persistence of models drawing a slug of slightly deeper moist-
ure into the area from the Gulf. Progged PWs up to 2.2" along with
daytime heating and the seabreeze should be the main catalysts for
storms. The strengthening ridge will lower POPS once again for Thu
and Fri...with the main forecast issue then becoming elevated heat
indicies approaching our criteria/threshold of 108.

Extended guidance still holding onto the idea of a front moving in
to the area from the NE this weekend. GFS remains the most aggres-
sive with this possibility, but the other models seem to be coming
around to this idea as well. PWs are currently progged to pool at/
around 2.2-2.5" along and ahead of this boundary as it move across
the lower MS River Valley with the western extent of this activity
in SE TX. While there is not a lot of confidence with the scenario
given this time of year, long-range models have been consistent so
far. 41

Weak high pressure over the northern Gulf should allow for southwest
winds today. Winds become southeast by mid week with low pressure
deepening in the plains. Southerly winds then continue into the
weekend with some model guidance showing a frontal boundary stalling
across SE Texas over the weekend. This may allow for winds to become
southwest over the weekend. Seas should remain around 2-3 feet
through the week, closer to 2 feet for the weekend.

TLDR; typical summer marine conditions with southerly winds and seas.



College Station (CLL)      77  99  77  96  77 /  20  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              77  96  77  92  77 /  10  10  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            83  92  82  89  83 /  10  10  10  20  20


TX...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.



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