Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Areas of mainly -RA/-SHRA and an isolated -TSRA or two continue
moving off to the east and will be east of all TAF sites by 20Z.
IFR/MVFR ceilings will be lifting this afternoon with mostly MVFR
levels by the end of the afternoon (we`ll have to see if any of the
clearing skies off to our west are able to edge into our area). Winds
will become south to southwest this afternoon under 10 knots. With
mostly light winds and wet grounds, anticipate MVFR/IFR low cloud
and fog development tonight with some spots dropping to LIFR. Look
for slowly improving conditions tomorrow morning with VFR levels being
reached in the late morning or early afternoon hours. S to SW winds
tomorrow morning will become S to SE tomorrow afternoon.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

Scattered to numerous showers continue to translate eastward
across Southeast Texas this morning, with a few embedded
thunderstorms within this activity producing an isolated lightning
strike or two. No major changes made for the morning update, with
this activity expected to clear the region during the early
afternoon hours as an upper level trough axis swings across the
region. Rain totals so far this morning have remained under one
inch and no major impacts are expected from this activity as it
clears the region, with additional rain totals generally remaining
under 0.25 inches through early afternoon. Lingering cloud cover
behind this activity will help keep temperatures cool this
afternoon in the mid 60s, but will need to monitor for any breaks
in the clouds as a few sites may be able to reach the low 70s
(mainly parts of the Brazos Valley) if they get enough heating.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

Rain and thunderstorms are possible once again today over SE
Texas. Do not expect a repeat of yesterday`s rainfall event give
that the frontal boundary was off of the coast early this morning.
However, the area will again come under the influence of an upper
trough moving overhead and the right-rear quadrant of the upper
level jet maximum which in turn will help generate showers and
thunderstorms once again mainly this morning. A radar mosiac at
3:30 AM showed an area of rain and thunderstorms stretching from
the Rio Grande to just west of Columbus. Another area of showers
were moving over the coastal counties. Model estimates are for
about one-quarter to one-half of an inch of total rainfall today
mainly along and east of a line from Columbus to Houston to
Cleveland. With PWs about 1.5 inches (in the 90th percentile for
this time of year), isolated totals of about one inch could occur.
Over the northern portions of the forecast area, rainfall totals
under a quarter of an inch are expected.

Friday and Saturday will be warmer. An upper level shortwave
ridge will move overhead on Friday with an upper low pressure
trough then moving overhead on Saturday. As this system moves east
of the area, it will wrap up and tighten the surface pressure
gradient over SE Texas and breezy conditions will result on
Sunday. A couple of dry days are then in store before another
upper level low pressure trough moves into the Plains over the mid
week period. Ahead of this system, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday over at
least the eastern portions of the forecast area.


Light NW to W winds should continue this morning but then turn SW
for the afternoon. This should allow for low seas to persist. Winds
light southerly winds continue Friday and Saturday with low seas. A
strong cold front should push off the Upper Texas Coast Saturday
night. Winds shift to the NW and increase dramatically Sunday
morning. Gale force winds will be likely Sunday so will likely need a
gale watch at some point. Small craft advisories may be needed
Sunday night into Monday as winds decrease. Seas should quickly
build in response to the strong northwest winds with 9 to 12 feet
seas by Sunday night. Seas should drop below 7 feet by Monday

Tide levels should remain about a foot above normal but could drop
some with light southerly winds into the weekend. Tide levels should
decrease quickly with the passage of the cold front Saturday night.
Low water advisory may be needed given the NW direction of the winds
and the rapid increase in wind speeds.


Overall rainfall from the last couple of days should keep vegetation
and soils moist. Fuels may dry some as a much drier airmass moves
into SE Texas Sunday behind a cold front Saturday night. But
relative humidity levels may only reach 35 percent Sunday with the
strong winds. Humidity levels may be lower on Monday but winds will
be light to moderate. At this time even elevated fire weather
conditions are not expected.



College Station (CLL)      67  55  77  57  74 /  30   0  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)              66  58  78  61  76 /  90   0  10  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            64  62  72  64  73 /  80   0  30  50  30




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