Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. MODELS IN A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL ADD MENTION OF LLWS TO CLL
AND UTS. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TONIGHT`S UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S READINGS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE IMPETUS TO THIS WARM UP IS
FROM TODAY`S RETURN FLOW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD
COVER BEING BROUGHT IN FROM THE GULF PER A DEEPENING ROCKY LEE
SIDE TROUGH THAT IS DRAWING UP THE STATE-WIDE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PWATS HAVE DOUBLE IN LESS THAN A DAY....FROM 0.4 INCHES
TO NEAR 0.8 INCHES. TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY PER THIS TIGHT GRADIENT
AND THE MIX DOWN OF A NEAR 35 KT LL JET. MID-LEVEL WARMING AS THE
REGION FALLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGING...VEERING
WINDS A BIT WEST OF SOUTH. THIS ALL EQUATES TO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEEKEND WITH MANY PEAKING OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF 75 F...A FEW LOCALES
NEARING THE BIG 8-0. MANY WILL NOT MIND THIS LATE NOVEMBER WARM SPELL
AS LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WAS VERY COLD...MORNING 30S SLUGGISHLY
WARMING INTO THE 50S. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTS SHOULD END OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR THE METRO
TERMINALS. NAM REMAINS AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL JET FORMATION
WHILE GFS IS A BIT WEAKER. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF
BUT WE WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE LOWER BOUND. WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME THANKS TO WARMING 850 TEMPS AND A RETURN OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASS CAN BE SEEN VERY NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
MIGHT PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE (AS SUPPORTED BY DEPTH OF SATURATION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS) BUT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ON SATURDAY A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HEAD OFF TO THE EAST DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR MONDAY THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOW OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY REMAINS
EXTREMELY LIMITED THOUGH SO ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHOWER
BASED. GFS OMEGA VALUES HAVE ALSO COME UP A BIT WITH PWATS
FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 1.30" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THE ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL REMAIN FUZZY ON THE DETAILS. THE
CONTINUED CAUSE FOR CONFUSION WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS IS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE EURO TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHEARS IT OUT WHILE PUSHING
IT INTO THE FLOW. THE GFS IS SIMILAR BUT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHORT WAVE. THANKS TO THE SHORT WAVE BEING FARTHER SOUTH THE GFS
PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALLS IT OVER THE AREA.
EITHER WAY RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AS IT HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE
EURO AS OF LATE. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A
BIT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY. 43

AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TREND AND KEEPS CONDS GENERALLY
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ADDED A GUST GROUP FOR TOMORROW AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX
TO THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE HOUSTON TAFS
AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE SFC TO 2000
FT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  76  62  77  60 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  77  62  78  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  73  63  73  64 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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