Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260427
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. ONLY EXCEPTION
WOULD BE SOME AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
PRONE SITES OF LBX AND CXO...AS WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT CLL
AROUND SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT SO HIGH THAT WILL OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE FOG NOT EXPECTED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL EDGE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND STRENGTHEN RESULTING GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITIES
ESPECIALLY INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AND MONDAY. TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST) SHOULD
BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA SEES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT.  42

CLIMATE...
WITH UNDER A WEEK LEFT IN THE MONTH (THRU THE 25TH)...

-CLL`S OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.81 INCHES IS 2.23 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
-CLL`S RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 2014 OF 31.15 INCHES IS 1.59 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

-IAH`S OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.95 INCHES IS 1.68 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
-IAH`S RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 2014 OF 34.72 INCHES IS 5.90 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

-HOU`S OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.56 INCHES IS 2.28 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
-HOU`S RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 2014 OF 32.08 INCHES IS 13.07 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

-GLS`S OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.75 INCHES IS 2.95 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
-GLS`S RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 2014 OF 24.11 INCHES IS 17.80 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND
LITTLE OR NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
ONLY EXCEPTION...STILL CAPTURING POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG
AT THE USUAL SPOTS...MAINLY LBX AND CXO. SOME LIGHT FOG ALSO
MENTIONED AT CLL FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL REEVALUATE THIS AT THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE TX TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S INLAND AND
AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AS WELL.

THE WARMER MIN TEMP TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE DRYING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE NE TO THE SW DURING THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFT
PD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS CONCERNING THE MID/UPPER PATTERN AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT HOW STRONG THE SECONDARY PUSH OF
COLDER AIR IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A
5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLN VERIFIES. 33

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GRADIENT WILL TEMPORARILY
TIGHTEN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CORRESPONDING WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAYBE BORDERLINE CAUTION CRITERIA SUN & MON
NIGHTS). THE GRADIENT LOOSENS & WINS/SEAS THEN SUBSIDE INTO MIDWEEK
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SE TX. FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG
UP NEAR THE COAST OR JUST INLAND - THEN EVENTUALLY GET A SECONDARY
PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADVSY FLAGS INTO THE 1ST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  86  62  85  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  86  63  85  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  80  71  81  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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