Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 220906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few light showers are lingering behind yesterday`s cold front
across parts of Liberty and Chambers county early this morning,
with the majority of showers and thunderstorms having pushed out
well into the Gulf. While a stray shower or two will be possible
near the coast through sunrise, the remainder of the day will be
dry and breezy for Southeast Texas as drier air and surface
ridging push into the region from the north. Keeping an eye on
winds along the immediate coast in case a brief Wind Advisory is
needed later this morning, but with temperatures along the coast
expected to hold in the lower 60s through the day (and water
temperatures in the mid 60s) have low confidence that the thermal
gradient along the coast will be strong enough to produce Wind
Advisory conditions. Otherwise, expect highs today generally in
the low to mid 60s across Southeast Texas. Clear skies and
decreasing winds tonight will be favorable for good radiational
cooling, allowing lows to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s
inland and mid 40s to low 50s along the coast.

North flow aloft becomes established today and persists into
early Friday as the region remains located in between upper
ridging over the Desert Southwest and upper troughing over the
Gulf. After a cool start Thanksgiving Day, temperatures will warm
into the mid 60s with sunny skies across the region. Temperatures
begin to warm heading into the weekend as upper ridging builds
east into the region with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Friday and mid 70s to near 80 on Saturday.

A weak cold front looks to cross the region Saturday night into
Sunday as an upper trough swings from the Great Lakes towards the
mid- Atlantic states. With the region remaining closed off from
Gulf moisture during the weekend, no rain is expected with the
front with temperatures only cooling a few degrees into the lower
to mid 70s. Onshore flow resumes by Monday and strengthens Tuesday
ahead of a cold front expected to reach the region by Wednesday.
Enough moisture return looks to occur ahead of this front for
isolated to scattered showers to develop as the front sweeps
across the region, but instability looks too minimal at this time
for any support for thunderstorms.



A tight pressure gradient will help to produce strong winds
through the morning with gusts occasionally reaching Gale force.
Will maintain a SCA for all waters through 18z and through 21z for
the offshore waters. Winds will gradually drop off during the
afternoon as the gradient weakens. Winds will remain moderate to
strong over the offshore waters tonight as the thermal gradient
kicks in. Lighter winds expected on Thanksgiving Day as high
pressure settles over S TX. Onshore winds will develop Friday as
the high moves east and low pressure develops over N TX. Another
cold front will cross the coastal waters Saturday night with an
offshore flow expected Sunday. Onshore winds are expected to
return on Monday as low pressure develops over the central plains.


Fire weather concerns are growing a bit but lowest RH and
stronger winds seem a bit out of phase. The strongest winds are
expected today but RH values should remain near 40 percent. A
drier airmass will settle over Southeast Texas on Thursday and
Friday but by then the winds will decrease to around 10 mph or
less. Some concern that fine fuels like grasses will be very dry
by Thursday and outdoor cooking could spark some grass fires. 43


College Station (CLL)      61  36  65  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              65  40  65  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            66  49  64  52  70 /   0   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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