Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 061440
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE
IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...JUST A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO POPS TODAY. DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT EAST-WEST
GRADIENT BUT LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z WRF NOT
TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN COVERAGE TODAY. WEAK INVERSION JUST ABOVE
700MB MAY BE TO BLAME ESP AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE AREA IN SWRLY FLOW.

AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH
MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE
NW AND N. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR N WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING
TROUGHINESS TO OUR W TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL
INLAND.

LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING
RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID
80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30
AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE
AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING
ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME
DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER
INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE
SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO
BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A
FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A
GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE
MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS
MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH
PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST
PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME
SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT.

BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE
RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT
TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK
COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND... HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS
FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP
TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND
COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY
BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A
LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH AFTN
AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


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