Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301328
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO A COOL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN CHECK. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
     SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDARIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. MORNING OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE
AND NE TO E WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK



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