Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 070041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS A FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE STALLED ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVE...FINALLY
COMPLETELY MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEAR AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. AS THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SAT...EXPECT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THE AIR IN PLACE IS
UNSEASONABLY DRY...DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
WHILE THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE UPPER 20S. HOWEVER...WE ARE
NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS.

RECORD LOW VS FORECAST LOW FOR MARCH 7...
ILM...20 SET IN 1960 VS 25
FLO...20 SET IN 1960 VS 24
CRE...22 SET IN 1954 VS 26

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH FULL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO ATTAIN VALUES SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY...ALBEIT STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ELONGATED WEST-EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WHILE LOCAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST. NOT
MUCH CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPS END UP BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
SOLAR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE
BOLSTERED BY SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN DOWN INTO THE MID LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE THIS PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE JET STREAM TO SPLIT INTO 2 DISTINCT ENTITIES...A
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE POLAR/ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS
UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE
RIDGING FROM 1 OR 2 OF THESE POLAR/ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST
RESULTING IN WEAK WEDGING ON TUE...AND AGAIN ON FRI. THAT MEANS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BASICALLY CONTROL THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. RIGHT OFF...THIS MEANS TEMPS ACROSS
THE ILM CWA WILL RETURN TO ATLEAST THEIR CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

THE FLOW ALOFT UNFORTUNATELY TAPS INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND
STREAMS IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE
RIDGING FROM THESE ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN A
WEAK SFC WEDGE ON TUE...AND A BIT STRONGER ONE DURING FRI. THE
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL FRONT OR TROF WILL BE OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE ILM CWA. MEANING...IT WILL HAVE A PROFOUND
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND THE CONCENTRATION AND AMOUNT OF PCPN. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED OVERRUNNING TYPE OF CLOUDINESS THRUOUT MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS LIMITED
AND WITHIN A LOW NOCTURNAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

STRATOCU CIG AROUND 4-5KFT WILL CONTINUES TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE THE
INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SKC CONDITIONS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ON SATURDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR WITH PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DROP TO NEAR 10 KT OR LESS
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FT OR LESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...4 FT OUT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THIS HIGH WILL ELONGATE FURTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND JUST
ABOUT SHUT DOWN THE GRADIENT FOR A TIME BEFORE A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW
TAKES OVER NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ON SUNDAY THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST WHILE ANOTHER CENTER BECOMES DEFINED WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS LEAVES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT LOCALLY FOR MINIMAL WIND
AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING MON THRU TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE SCENARIO WITH A COASTAL TROF LYING JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE RIDGING...IE. WEDGE...TO BREAK DOWN RATHER
QUICKLY BY LATE TUE AS THE SOURCE OF THE COOL AIR...THE CENTER OF
THE SFC HIGH...MOVES WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL TROF...AND TRACK NE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND RATHER LOOSE AND BENIGN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN 3 FEET
OR LESS...POSSIBLY UP TO A FOOT OR 2 HIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL TROF. A 7 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE
THE SEAS SPECTRUM AT TIMES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL





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