Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 311034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SYNOPTIC
IMPULSES DEFLECTED AWAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S FROM MARION AND FLORENCE WESTWARD INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY.
ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
(COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 1.5 INCHES) VERY RICH MOISTURE
EXISTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S THIS MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...BUT THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100-103 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY
ALSO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...PROBABLY BECOMING LESSER IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT...
VIRTUALLY ALL EAST OF I-95 AND HIGHEST IN A STRIPE ACROSS LELAND TO
BURGAW AS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING... WITH ONLY A LITTLE PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOCALES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A FLAT
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE REGION MON
AND TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN MEANS LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL PUSH ML CAPE VALUES TO 1K-2K J/KG FOR MON AND OVER 2K
J/KG ON TUE. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT ONCE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKE SHAPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD START POPPING UP. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POP FOR EACH AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ON TUE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE
VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG WITH
ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND MAKE A RUN TO
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE NOT ONES THAT GENERALLY SUPPORT FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K J/KG FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
NEAR CLIMO PWATS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SUGGEST POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE FOG A BIT GIVEN THE INCREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPO IFR VSBYS INLAND...BUT MVFR SEEMS
MORE LIKELY ATTM. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AS WELL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST THIS MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR
KILM/KCRE/KMYR. THE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 6-10 KT DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FONT IN THE AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 3 FEET IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES...WITH ANY
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MINIMAL CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS DOES THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATE IN THE
PERIOD A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
KT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/TRA




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