Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241025
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the
area releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure
to bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late
May sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus
formation this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over
interior Pender county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine
minutes today and maximums approaching near to slightly below
normal for late May. Fair this evening in low level return wind
flow coupled with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear
skies...will result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any patchy light fog will be out of here shortly after
TAF issuance. Upper low is pulling away but still may have enough
influence to produce CU this afternoon...mainly from 15-21Z. No
precip is expected...but could not rule out isolated convection over
the extreme northeast portion of the CWA. Tonight...mainly clear
skies with little or no fog expected due to moderate southwest flow
aloft.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the
area releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds
to become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as
the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas
2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and
no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL


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