Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH
NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK



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