Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 200450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

ISSUED 905 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Cirrus covers the whole area and will continue that way the rest
of the night. Even with very low dewpoints, southerly winds and
cirrus cover will keep temps from falling too far. Current low
forecast in the middle 40s to lower 50s still looks good. No
update planned at this time.


ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. Scattered high
cirrus is expected through tomorrow afternoon. Then cirrus clouds
will begin to thicken and become broken during the evening. Southeast
winds will become southerly in the morning. Wind speeds will be less
than 10kts overnight and then increase back to 10-15kts tomorrow,
then decrease tomorrow evening.


ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Not much change in the overall forecast compared to recent days.
The upcoming week is expected to be warmer than normal for the
most part (for a change). The best chances for rainfall remain in
the vicinity of Monday and again by Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday:

The pleasant weekend weather will persist Sunday as southerly
winds develop between departing high pressure and slowly
approaching low pressure from the plains. This southerly flow is
expected to push temperatures a little warmer than today, but the
warm-up will be tempered some by an increase in cloud cover.

The slow moving low/frontal system from the plains is still
progged to come through later Monday into Monday night. This
system is not expected to be a significant rainfall producer due
to an overall lack of moisture. The forcing as the system comes
through is not terribly strong or focused either, driven by loosely
phased northern/southern stream upper waves.

Temperatures will cool to more normal levels (highs in the 60s,)
behind Monday`s system as upper/surface ridging, and an airmass of
Canadian origin, build into the area. However, the associated dry
airmass will keep conditions quiet.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday:

The cooler weather will linger into Wednesday, before rising upper
heights and low level return flow begin in earnest. A stronger
system is expected to arrive on Thursday, likely accompanied by
numerous showers/storms. While there is a low chance of
showers/storms across northern sections of the forecast area
Wednesday into Wednesday night in the pre-system warm advection
regime, the bulk of the threat should accompany the system`s cold
front later Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures should
climb back above normal as this system approaches/moves through,
but a return to below normal temperatures is looking increasingly
likely by next weekend.




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