Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251059
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The late season heat wave is expected to continue across central
and southeast IL through Tuesday, with near record highs in the
lower 90s. This will be a week long heat wave that started on
Wed/Sep 20, which is unusual for late September with highs
reaching 90-95F as far north as northern lower Michigan.

A strong 591 dm 500 mb subtropical high was over NY/PA and ridging
back into IL early this morning with our 500 mb heights around 586
dm. Meanwhile a 563 dm 500 mb low was over western CO embedded in
a deep upper level trof over the Rockies. At the surface a 1020 mb
high pressure was over NY and VT and ridging back into eastern IL.
A cold front extended from far nw WI into central IA, nw MO and
central KS.

Patchy fog could appear near the Wabash river early this morning
with better chance of this south of highway 50. Otherwise nearby
strong mid/upper level ridge will continue to influence
central and southeast IL`s weather today, though more cumulus
clouds expected to develop by midday into the afternoon. Some of
the hi-res models like HRRR, ARW and NMM show isolated to
scattered convection this afternoon over part of CWA while NAM is
dry with qpf west/nw of IL closer to frontal boundary and leaned
in this direction with slight pops late this afternoon from
Galesburg WNW. Highs of 89-93F expected this afternoon with SSE
winds less than 10 mph. Mostly clear skies tonight with lows in
the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

One more hot day on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s over the
IL river valley, and lower 90s from I-55 east/se. A cold front
over central IA to finally push se toward the IL river toward
sunset Tue and could produce isolated showers/thunderstorms late
Tue afternoon into Tue evening over the IL river valley. Cold
front moves through rest of central and southeast IL during Tue
night but little or no chance of rain due to lack of moisture and
lift. Lows Tue night range from upper 50s nw of the IL river, to
the mid to upper 60s in southeast IL.

Cold front to push se over KY/TN on Wed as upper level ridge
is suppressed southward. Have just a slight chance of showers
near the Wabash river Wed afternoon, though most of CWA will be
dry Wed with decreasing clouds from nw to se. Highs Wed range
from lower 70s by Galesburg, to mid 80s near Lawrenceville. Even
cooler Wed night with lows mostly in the lower 50s, with upper 40s
by Galesburg and mid 50s near Lawrenceville.

Models continue to dig a broad upper level trof southward over the
Great Lakes and into the Ohio river valley late this week and
cooling temperatures further. Seasonable highs Thu thru Sunday in
the low to mid 70s, though a few degrees cooler on Saturday. Lows
in the lower 50s Thu night and mid to upper 40s Fri and Sat
nights. Next weather system appears to arrive overnight Sunday
night and Monday of next week with next chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL
airports through 12Z/7 am Tuesday. A strong 590 dm 500 mb high
over NY and southern New England and ridging back toward IL will
continue to influence central IL thru Tue morning, providing fair
weather. Few to scattered cumulus clouds of 5-8k ft will occur
today and be most prevalent this afternoon and could briefly go
broken VFR ceilings. Few cirrus clouds passing by today and
tonight as well. 1020 mb high pressure over the eastern Great
Lakes and New England was ridging back into eastern IL and will
remain close by to keep SSE winds fairly light next 24 hours.
Light south to SE winds early this morning become south at 5-9
kts after 15Z and diminish light again at sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

Location          Today      Tuesday
                  Sep 25      Sep 26
--------------   -------     -------
Bloomington...   93/2007     93/1897
Champaign.....   96/1891     94/1897
Charleston....   91/2016     92/1897
Danville......   94/1897     91/1897
Decatur.......   91/1939     96/1897
Effingham.....   92/2007     93/1897
Galesburg.....   90/2007     92/1897
Jacksonville..   93/2007     97/1897
Lincoln.......   92/1920     91/1953
Olney.........   92/2007     94/1897
Peoria........   92/1891     93/1897
Springfield...   94/1891     92/1897

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...07


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