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000
FXUS63 KILX 200730
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

QUIET SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE. AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES LATER TODAY. FRONT WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS IT GETS CLOSER...BUT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE KILX CWA DRY...THINK BOUNDARY WILL GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR W/SW CWA
LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. ANY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AS MEAGER DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...SETTING UP A
PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W/NW
CWA ON FRIDAY. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGE
WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 POP
NORTHWEST OF I-55. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINING WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
A LARGELY DRY DAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION POPPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT/HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEXT WEEK...WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL EXHIBIT A BIT OF A SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...LIGHT/CALM WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY
UNTIL VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. SCT CU DWINDLING INTO
THE EVENING AND BKN CIRRUS ARE THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE CU DEVELOPING TOMORROW. KEEPING A MENTION OF
SCT CIRRUS AS WELL WITH SAT IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CIRRUS
AROUND THE REGION TO WARRANT.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE KEEPING WEATHER
QUIET FOR THE ILX TERMINALS. VFR THROUGHOUT.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$