Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 250517
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1217 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Quiet night for a change with mostly clear skies across the entire
CWA, through a little patch of SC is still over the mid section of
the area. This will likely hang around as it slides to the
northeast tonight. Current forecast still looks good with light
northeast winds. Could still be some light fog toward morning, but
not enough to mention in grids/forecast. Therefore no update
planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Quiet weather is expected through the period with neutral upper-
level flow and high pressure building across the area at this
surface. One fly in the ointment is the potential for fog across
the area later tonight. Persistent low clouds have been across
much of the forecast area today, clouds that were not well
forecast by any of the guidance. This has minimized diurnal mixing
across the area, and surface dew points are still quite high.
Once the low clouds fade (they have been trending more cellular
with time), the mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated may
be conducive to fog development. Current model guidance is not
too excited about fog tonight, but they weren`t excited about the
low clouds either, leading to low confidence in their output. This
fog threat will need to be monitored closely by the evening
shift.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Forecast attention turns to a vigorous upper-level wave, currently
tracking across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This wave will push a
cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. Southerly low-
level flow ahead of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday night
will bring very warm and humid conditions back into the area.
Associated thunderstorm chances will accompany the
approach/passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday/behind the front, humidity levels drop and
temperatures return to normal levels or below. High pressure will
be in control of the local weather for much of the remaining
forecast period, accompanied by dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

High pressure shifting eastward across the Midwest will result in
a gradual wind shift to the east/southeast on Tuesday. Scattered
diurnal clouds are expected to develop toward midday, with some
brief ceilings around 3500 feet possible around KSPI/KDEC. Aside
from some areas of light fog toward sunrise near KPIA/KBMI, VFR
conditions will prevail the next 24 hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart



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