Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241419

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1019 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure is expected to remain across the area for the next
couple of days. A frontal system will be affecting the area
towards the middle of the week. Another frontal system may
affect the area over next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Patch of clouds is drifting south across the area at the moment, and
additional cloud cover may sneak down later this morning. These will
dissipate this afternoon. Adjusted sky cover to match these trends.

Tweaked high temperatures in a couple of areas but made no
significant changes at this time.

Previous discussion follows...

Inactive front currently dropping south through the area. This front
should clear the southern zones by daybreak. Dry conditions expected
today as surface high pressure builds into the area from the

Could be some clouds today from moisture flowing off of Lake
Michigan, especially over the northern zones, but probably won`t be
too extensive given the overall dry air mass.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs today.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Model data suggest the weather feature during this period will be an
upper air trough, and associated frontal system, that is expected
to move through the local area Wednesday night. Should begin to see
a gradual increase in mid and high level cloud cover as early as
late tonight, although at this point, it appears the main lift and
precipitation threat will hold off until Wednesday.

Warm and moist advection appears to be rather robust by Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with models suggesting a 35-45kt low level
jet in the area. Based on above, will keep the forecast dry through
Tuesday night, and bring in rather high PoPs for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFs MOS
temperature guidance through the period, with the exception being
the highs on Wednesday. These look a little on the cool side,
especially over the north. Will raise the guidance highs on
Wednesday a category in those areas.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Models maintain a strong upper ridge of high pressure over the
south central U.S. and a somewhat zonal upper flow from the northern
plains across our region to the middle atlantic states during the
long term period. Quiet weather and slightly above normal
temperatures will be the rule most of this period.  Will continue a
slight chance of showers across east central Indiana early Thursday
as Wednesday nights system moves on to the east.

An area of low pressure moving across the great lakes will bring a
good chance of showers late Friday northwest...most of our area
Friday night and northeast sections of our region early Saturday.
Some models indicate another system may briefly affect us early
Sunday... although confidence of this system is low at this time.

High temperatures will range from the middle 50s north to lower 60s
south Thursday....mostly in the 60s Friday and Saturday and upper
50s to middle 60s Sunday. Lows will be in the lower 40s Thursday
night...lower 50s Friday night and middle to upper 40s Saturday
night.  Did not make any significant changes from super blend


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 241500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Small pocket of stratus over northern parts of central Indiana has
diminished considerably since 12Z and have removed from both KIND
and KLAF. Will need to keep an eye on the stratus deck moving south
through northern Indiana currently but all indications are that the
deck should mix out into a scattered cu field as it moves south.

12Z discussion follows.

Brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KIND and KLAF this morning.

Satellite shows patchy areas of MVFR strato cu around 2 thousand feet
spreading into the northern portions of our region.  This could
affect KIND and KLAF TAF sites and will mention a period of 2
thousand scattered temp broken there. This should all mix out by
early afternoon with no significant clouds expected through mid
night tonight. Model soundings indicate some mid clouds may spread
into northern areas late tonight and Tuesday.

Winds will become northerly at 5 to 10 kts today and northeast around
5 knots tonight.





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