Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021729
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
129 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WEEK WILL SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM LAST NIGHT/S
EVENT ARE CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY WITHIN AN HOUR.
LOWERED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SINCE CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A MUCH DRIER AIR COLUMN AFTER TUE
18Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST. SO...NO CHANGES
TO THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. CURRENTLY TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND SHOULD STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY DRYING
AIR COLUMN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER 12Z WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTH BUT TAPER TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
AREAS DRY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN THIS MORNING HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
MAV MAY BE OVERDOING EXTENT OF DRIER AIR THAT WORKS INTO THE AREA
SINCE FLOW REMAINS MORE ZONAL. WILL GO WARMER THAN MAV MOS FOR LOWS
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN
FORCING DOESN/T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. SREF POPS ARE LOW SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
NOT SURE THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP AND SREF POPS ARE AGAIN
LOW...BUT SINCE MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY HAD POPS IN DID NOT WANT TO
FLIP-FLOP. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND THEN TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REGIONAL BLEND GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF MARKEDLY TO THE 70S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG PRODUCING
SUB IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL
HAVE LINGERING AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR KBMG. LIGHTER SHOWERS TRYING
TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH...AND MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR BRIEF IMPACT
AT KIND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 20Z AS
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ENABLE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. W/NW
WINDS UP TO 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTATION
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE STILL PRESENT NEAR THE GROUND. POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITIES TO 1SM OR LESS AT OUTLYING TERMINALS...WITH THICKEST
FOG AT KBMG WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST NIGHT. EVEN
KIND SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
POSSIBLY LOWER. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW CU DEVELOPING MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

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