Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KIND 221131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
630 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The mild temperatures will continue today. The weather will become
unsettled once again as a strong system moves over the southern
states and Tennessee Valley before moving up the eastern seaboard
Monday night into Tuesday night. More seasonable conditions will
return late next week including a chance for snow showers by
Wednesday night.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 630 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Based on HRRR reflectivity progs and upstream trends and after
coordinating with adjacent offices, lowered hourly pops today with
resulting pops around 30 percent far north and 60 percent far south.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Main concern today will be pops and temperatures as a strong low
pressure system, currently seen on water vapor imagery over
southeastern Oklahoma, moves east across the Tennessee Valley and
Mid South.

The HRRR was showing convection, currently over northern sections of
Alabama and Mississippi, pivot north and northwest toward the Ohio
valley late this morning and afternoon. Models were once again
showing precipitable water values near an inch over our southern
counties this afternoon. So, went likely pops there with slightly
lower pops north. That said, a frontal boundary across our
northwestern counties will be another lifting mechanism. One concern
with coverage will be the widespread convection to our south and
what effect that has on inflow across the Ohio Valley. The HRRR
suggests it may help reduce coverage over central Indiana somewhat.

Based on SPC Day1 Outlook, left thunder out but would not be shocked
to see a lightning strike or two over the area.

Could see some morning fog, mainly over our northwestern counties as
there was widespread dense fog just to the north of our forecast
area borders with LOT and IWX.

Northeast winds and thicker cloud cover will limit temperatures a
bit compared to yesterday but not before highs reach the mid 50s to
around 60 per blend.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The unsettled weather will continue into the short term as thestrong
southern storm system moves over the Tennesee Valley andAppalachians
tonight and Monday and up the eastern seaboard thereafter. Models in
good agreement that the showers will gradually endfrom southwest to
northeast Monday night as the storm moves up thecoast taking the
moisture with it. Stuck with regional blendregarding pops. Should
see some breaks in the clouds by lateTuesday.

Temperatures will not be as warm, but will still be well abovenormal
with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 and lows in the mid30s to
lower 40s.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 338 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes Region on
Wednesday will advect warm air ahead of its associated warm front,
resulting in highs topping off in the upper 40s/low 50s. However,
the cold front on the back side will bring a quick shift back to
more normal conditions by Wednesday night. Any lingering rain
showers will quickly transition to a wintry mix and then finally
snow on Wednesday night/Thursday. Meanwhile, daytime highs for
Thursday through Saturday will drop into the 30s with overnight
lows in the 20s. Light snow showers will linger over northern and
eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday in the cold
advection, but no accumulations are expected. Further out, latest
Superblend initialization is trending toward a dry forecast from
Friday night through Saturday night and will not deviate from that
at this time.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 221200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 606 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

LAF will continue to have VLIFR fog issues this morning. However,
the other sites should mostly be MVFR or better through 17z. Then,
shower chances will be increasing and flying conditions will likely
fall to MVFR or worse at times. After 03z Monday, conditions should
trend to IFR.

Winds will become northeast and north near 10 knots after 17z and
north 10 knots or more with gusts to 20 knots or more after 03z





AVIATION...JH/MK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.