Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051138
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
738 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO END
THE WORK WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

MUCH OF THE FORCING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...RECENT HISTORY HAS SHOWN
THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP RATHER EASILY NEAR THE OLD FRONT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY RAISE POPS SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD THE LOW
POPS A BIT FARTEHR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES.

DID NOT GO TOO FAR NORTHEAST THOUGH AS DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL
HELP ERODE RAINFALL AS IT APPROACHES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN DURING THE DAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO GET TO NEAR THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR WITH LARGER SCALE FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN QPF PLACEMENT
AND AMOUNTS. NAM/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS WITH
RAIN...WHILE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH.

REALITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...BUT A TREND SOUTH HAS
BEEN NOTED EVEN IN THE ENSEMBLES. WILL FOLLOW THE OVERALL TREND
SOUTH...BUT WILL NOT GO AS EXTREME AS THE GFS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DRY EAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL FIGHT THE SPREAD NORTHEAST THOUGH. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL GRADUALLY END POPS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH...BEST CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS FEEL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE IN ON FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
LIMITED.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND VERY WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS REGIME RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY...BUT THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH THE AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE THE MOST FORCING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH TAF SITES. INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS AT
KIND/KHUF/KBMG STARTING DURING THE THU 04-06Z TIME FRAME...BUT
CONDIFENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH
KLAF. SO...LEFT MENTION OF VCTS OUT OF KLAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD


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