Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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557
FXUS62 KJAX 300158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WAS ABLE TO KEEP CONVECTION
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND RATHER TAME DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THERE ARE STILL
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG SOME
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LATE SEABREEZE COLLISIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS LOW STRATUS BUT THERE REMAINS PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG BUT WE WILL START OUT WITH
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER IT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS. FOR NOW WE WILL SHOW A
MIXTURE OF THE TWO AND GO AHEAD AND ADD IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF
SITES FOR ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN
SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THIS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE SE GA COASTLINE. FOR
NOW WE WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  91  68  88 /   0  30  30  40
SSI  70  83  71  80 /   0  10  10  30
JAX  66  90  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  70  85  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  66  90  68  87 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  67  90  68  88 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ZIBURA/COMBS



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