Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250735
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Heights starting to fall this morning ahead of a large upper level
trough moving across the Great Lakes. At the surface, calm winds
in the east and light southwesterly winds across the western half
of the area have resulted in foggy conditions developing
overnight. Dense fog has been patchy and brief, but will continue
monitoring trends as return flow off the Gulf is expected to
increase as we go through the morning. Southwesterly winds are
expected for much of the day and a warm day with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s are expected. A cold front will move through
the area today. Most locations will remain dry, though there may
be some isolated showers that form along the front as it passes
through. A much cooler night than recent past (though closer to
normal) is expected tonight behind the front as morning lows will
be in the 40s. Sunday will be a beautiful day as high pressure
builds across the Southeast. Highs will be near normal (upper 60s
to low 70s) with a much drier airmass in place for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be Northeast of the region Sunday night, with a
warm front lifting across the area on Monday. Scattered showers will
accompany this frontal passage. The region will be in the warm
sector South of this warm front and East of an approaching cold
front Monday night through Wednesday, with temperatures running
well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will move East across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. The best support for convection with this system will be
well to the North, but a few storms can not be ruled out with this
passage. Strong high pressure will build to the Northwest Thursday
night into Friday, with temperatures falling  to near to below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR to IFR conditions are expected across most of the area this
morning. Visibilities may bounce around some between 1/4 mile and
1SM, but near sunrise medium confidence in a more prolonged period
of visibilities below 1SM are likely. Restrictions will slowly
dissipate through the morning hours, and mainly VFR conditions
with southwest to west winds around 10 to 15kts are expected. A
cold front will move through the area and shift winds around to
the north. There may be some isolated showers along the front, but
overall it should pass dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will continue to diminish this morning so will allow the SCA
to expire for the offshore waters. Offshore winds will increase
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds and seas will increase
this evening after the front passes, and another SCA will go into
effect this evening. Seas will be between 6 and 7 feet, while
winds will increase to 20-25kts with gusts near 30kts late
tonight. Onshore flow returns on Sunday afternoon and winds will
return near SCEC levels on Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk continues for the NE Florida beaches
and a low risk for SE Georgia. High risk may return for Florida
beaches on Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Following a cold frontal passage Today, much drier air will advect
into the region. RH values are expected to fall below critical
levels Sunday. Winds will be on the lighter side though, especially
away from the coast, and fuel moisture and erc values are not
expected to be in range of headline criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  39  68  45 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  76  47  63  54 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  82  44  67  52 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  81  49  65  56 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  79  45  72  51 /  20  10   0   0
OCF  79  47  73  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM EST early
     this morning for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Struble/Elsenheimer/McGinnis


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