Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 280700
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.NEAR TERM (Through Tonight)...A mean layer (1000-500 MB) ridge
begins to build into the southeast U.S. bringing dry and stable mid
level air to the region. A surface high builds in across the Ohio
Valley region today and moves to the Carolinas tonight bringing an
onshore flow to the area with breezy conditions along the coast
during the afternoon. High clouds will continue to stream in from
the Gulf of Mexico between a large sub-tropical high to the
southeast and a trough to the northwest of the area. Areas of late
night and early morning mainly inland fog can be expected both this
morning and tonight although high clouds will tend to mitigate
widespread dense fog potential. Temps to continue above normal with
highs in the lower/mid 80s inland to near 80 coast and lows from the
upper 50s well inland to the upper 60s river/coast.
.SHORT TERM (Saturday-Sunday Night)...Mean layer high pressure will
continue to dominate the local wx pattern with sfc ridge positioned
over the SE states. Ensemble guidance shows above normal 500 mb and
700 mb heights over the weekend and early next week. Weak onshore
low level winds will become even weaker on Sunday with sfc ridge
shifting a bit more southward to be over northern FL. Warm temps
(above normal) and dry conditions thus will persist. Patchy to areas
of fog are possible in the early morning hours.
.LONG TERM (Monday-Thursday)...
Monday... Not much change in the onshore wind pattern is shown into
early next week, with an elongated e-w area of high pressure setting
up over North FL/ Southeast GA waters. This will furnish light
onshore winds early next week with presence of a rather stable and
dry airmass associated with deep layered high pressure. Temperatures
will remain several degrees above normal. Max temps will be 5 to 7
degrees above normal across NE FL and 7 to 9 degrees above normal
across SE GA.
Tuesday through Thursday... Slow incremental cooling will take place
during this time-frame due to slightly stronger onshore flow and a
slow decline in thicknesses. High Pressure will build from NE GA
thru the Carolinas into Virginia. This will result in an increased
pressure gradient and subsequent stronger NE flow across the
region...with breezy conditions anticipated near the immediate
coast. There may be isolated passing showers mainly over the
coastal counties Wed into Thursday due to coastal convergence
associated with slightly stronger onshore flow. Max Temps will lower
80s interior Tuesday through Thursday with upper 70s near the
immediate coast. Lows remaining in the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s
near the coast.
.AVIATION...Areas of fog will reduce the vsby down to MVFR and
possibly to IFR until around 13z-14z. Otherwise prevailing VFR with
scattered decks 3000-4000 FT and cigs around 25000 FT.
.MARINE...Onshore winds will continue through early next week as
high pressure is reinforced to the north. Advisory conditions for
the offshore Ne Fl waters south of St. Augustine mainly due to seas
around 7 feet. Exercise caution headline for the remainder of the
offshore ne Fl/se Ga coastal waters due to seas remaining elevated.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk through at least Saturday due to
onshore winds and lingering swells.
Observations show river levels along the St Johns are touching
action stage mainly from Downtown Jacksonville southward. Values
could approach minor flood stage over the next few days due to
approach of new moon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 79 65 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 82 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 80 67 81 67 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 84 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 PM EDT Saturday
for Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
to 60 NM.