Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 240717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Hot and humid conditions will prevail again today with below
normal storm chances for most areas. Deep-layered ridge axis will
be just south of the area with deep, mostly light, southwest flow
in place. The slightly increased southwest flow will slow the
inland progression of the Atlantic seabreeze which will struggle
to make much inland progress.

The Gulf seabreeze will get off to an early start. A pocket of
increased low level moisture will lift north into our southern
counties, and this will support widely scattered to scattered
storms moving inland with the gulf seabreeze by late this morning
into the early afternoon hours mainly south of a line from
Gainesville to St. Augustine in concert with the positioning of
the increased low level moisture. The rest of the area will remain
primarily dry through most of the day. By late in the day,
scattered storms upstream along a pre-frontal trough will begin
to move into southeast Georgia and affect inland areas of
southeast Georgia through this evening. The highest chances will
be across our northwestern zones late in the day, with this
activity expected to weaken and diminish as it moves southeast and
begins to feel the affects of the mean-layer ridge.

All activity will wind down by late in the evening with only a
slight chance of an additional shower or two across our northern
zones after midnight. It will be another muggy evening with above
normal temperatures.

.SHORT TERM....Sun through Tue night...

Sun & Sun night...A late season cold front will be edging
southward across south-central GA Sunday morning as surface high
pressure shifts east of the Florida peninsula. The strong and
stubborn 500 mb ridge will remain across the state as a long wave
trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. Morning showers and
isolated tstorms will begin to pop across SE GA near the Altamaha
River basin, with additional isolated convection expected across
our southern Fl zones along a weak convergent axis pivoting
northward from central Florida. Precip will expand in coverage
through the afternoon hours as the front presses south toward the
I-10 corridor, with additional convection popping across NE
Florida along and east of Interstate 75 trekking toward the
Atlantic coast under WSW steering flow. Rainfall will decrease in
coverage after sunset, but isolated to scattered showers and
tstorms are expected through Sunday night due to the front
lingering across the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for gusty wet downbursts are the primary convective
hazards. Temperatures will continue above climo values Sun due to
the strong and persistent mid level ridge across FL with highs in
the lower 90s which will make for heat induces in the 100-105 deg.
Sun night mild and muggy conditions under partly to mostly cloudy
skies with mins only in the low/mid 70s.

Mon & Mon night...The surface front settles farther south over N
Florida Monday with a continuation of morning showers and isolated
tstorms along and south of the boundary, while drier air begins to
edge southward over portions of SE GA near the Altamaha River
basin. The highest rain chances Mon were advertised along the NE
FL coast in the afternoon and then shifting inland toward the St.
Johns River Basin with the lowest rain chances across inland SE GA
due to drier air. A drier NNE flow will funnel over the area
trailing the frontal passage with breezy NE winds along the
Atlantic coast. Rain chances will decrease after sunset, but a low
chance of a nighttime shower or isolated tstorms will continue
especially along the Atlantic coast as winds become more NE.

Tue & Tue night...Front and associated moisture settle farther
south of north Florida as surface high pressure builds from the
Mid-West toward the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring a ENE flow
across the local area. Dry air will continue to limit convection
across SE GA while the higher rain chances will exist across our
southern Florida zones. Morning showers and isolated tstorms will
move inland from the Atlantic with the stronger east coast sea
breeze and continued convective growth will occur as activity
presses westward through the day toward the I-75 corridor. Rain
chances will tapper off after sunset with a continued low chance
of showers/isolated tstorms along the coast under continued
onshore flow.

Temperatures will be near to below normal with highs in the
mid/upper 80s both Mon/Tue. Drier air in place will enable temps
to cool into the mid/upper 60s inland with low 70s still toward
the Atlantic coast under onshore.

.LONG TERM...Wed through Sat...

Rain chances gradually increase from south to north each day as
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic coast Wed builds farther ESE
offshore of the east coast. This pattern will gradually veer low
level flow to more ESE with an increase in moisture from the south
fueling an increase in daily shower/tstorm coverage. Late Fri into
Sat models suggest a weakness in the mid level 500 mb ridge across
the Fl peninsula which would support greater coverage of
afternoon/showers and tstorms. Prevailing ESE flow will bring a
dominant east coast sea breeze regime with late morning early
afternoon showers/tstorms pressing toward the I-75 corridor
through the afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will trend near
to slightly below normal with highs near 90 well inland to the
mid 80s along the Atlantic coast. Low temperatures will range from
near 70 inland to mid/upper 70s coast.



VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Scattered to
locally broken ceilings around 4000 feet will be possible today,
especially at GNV but scattered clouds should prevail for the bulk
of the day. No thunderstorms expected at the Jacksonville area
terminals today. A few storms may near GNV and SGJ today but
chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time.



Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots the next couple of mornings
will back to the southeast each afternoon with the seabreeze over
the weekend. Southerly winds will increase to SCEC levels by late
this afternoon through this evening with the nocturnal surge. A
weak front will push into the waters late Sunday night with
northerly winds around 10 to 15 knots expected on Monday. The
front will stall/washout near southern portions of the area with
light and variable winds then expected through Tuesday night.
Winds will increase out of the northeast on Wednesday as high
pressure builds down the coast.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk due to increased onshore flow with
the seabreeze this afternoon.


AMG  93  75  91  71 /  30  40  60  50
SSI  90  78  88  75 /  10  20  60  60
JAX  94  75  91  75 /  10  10  60  60
SGJ  91  76  90  75 /  30  20  50  60
GNV  92  73  92  74 /  20  10  50  50
OCF  92  74  90  74 /  40  20  40  50




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