Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 230728
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS A DECAYING FRONT RESIDES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE
RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TNGT. WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
COULD MAKE IT ONSHORE. WILL USE ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JAX AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTN UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG/WEST OF I-75.
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR NE FL WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST ACROSS NE FL AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA CLOSEST TO A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 ALONG/WEST OF I-75.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP SE FLOW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING INLAND WITH ISOLATED
P.M. STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WELL INLAND. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ONSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NE FL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN FOR SGJ/GNV BUT
COVERAGE TOO LITTLE FOR INCLUSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AFTER 00Z...WILL USE MVFR CIGS
FOR THE FL TERMINALS. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING...WITH INLY A SLIGHT DECREASE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE AT SOME
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS OFFSHORE LATER TODAY/TNGT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REACHES A MAXIMUM...BUT WITH SHORT DURATION...WILL KEEP
CAUTION FOR BOTH LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RISK
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WITH PERSISTENT AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  64  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  79  71  81  73 /  10  10  20  40
JAX  84  68  85  72 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  81  73  83  74 /  20  20  30  20
GNV  88  69  87  69 /  20  10  30  10
OCF  89  70  89  70 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.