Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 270159
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE SE
STATES WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY HEADING EWD. AN
ASSOCD DRY COLD FRONT FROM ERN TN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FCST TO
MOVE ESE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 4-5 AM AND SE
ZONES BY ABOUT 9 AM THU. TONIGHTS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NONETHELESS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN NOTED TO
DROP OFF QUITE FAST (COUPLE OF RECENT REPORTS IN NE FL OF UPPER 30S
AT 845 PM) AND HAVE NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA SWD WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. THERE IS
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE MID 30S...BUT FELT THE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS AROUND 1000-2000 FT FCST TO INCREASE TO 25-35
KT...POSSIBLY POCKET OF 40 KT AT 2000 FT OVER SE GA AROUND THE
09Z-14Z TIME FRAME SO INSERTED LLWS DURING THIS TIME FOR ALL TAFS.
WEAK WSW TO SW WIND 5-10 KT EARLY THU WILL PICKUP TO NEAR NW15G25KT
BY 14Z-16Z AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDS AND INITIALLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OFFSHORE WATERS THU WITH SCA IN AFFECT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK LIKELY ON THU DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW
SWELL HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  43  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  39  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  43  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  37  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/WOLF/WALKER




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