Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 041031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
631 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2015

The upper low centered over norther FL/southern GA early this
morning will continue to slowly move eastward through the short term
period. As this feature shifts eastward, ridging will begin to build
in aloft from the west over the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface
high pressure will sink in from the north.

A few very light showers remain across south central Kentucky this
morning. These are expected to dissipate before sunrise with mainly
dry conditions for the rest of the day. A stray shower will still be
possible, but will go with a dry forecast as drier air filtering in
should limit any rain potential. Cloud cover should begin to thin
and break up, but how fast this will happen is still somewhat in
question. High temperatures will be tricky as clouds will likely
have a big impact on them. For now will remain close to the previous
forecast with upper 60s in the Bluegrass region to mid 70s further

Dry conditions will continue tonight into Monday with clouds really
moving out. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s with highs
Monday topping out in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2015

Mild and dry weather is expected for most of the coming work week,
with an upper ridge overhead and surface high pressure building from
the Great Lakes to prevent the Gulf from opening up. Temps will run
a few degrees above normal through Friday.

Next chance for rain shows up on Friday as a shortwave trof swings
through the Great Lakes, and pushes a cold front into the Ohio
Valley. Decent focus, but fairly modest moisture availability, so
will keep POPs in the chance category as we are still 5 days out.
Limited confidence as to what happens behind this front as the
models diverge slightly on the timing and sharpness of a trailing
shortwave, so will carry slight chance POPs through Saturday. Look
for narrow diurnal ranges due to clouds and precip, and max temps
will be knocked back below normal.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2015

Low clouds have scattered out at LEX this morning with a mid deck in
place above the remaining low stratus. Though it could fill back in
for a bit this morning, will go on the optimistic side with the TAF
as upstream observations in northern KY are VFR at this time as
well. Ceilings will improve through the morning at SDF and BWG, with
the low ceilings hanging on the longest at BWG. Winds will be out of
the northeast through this TAF period and will be much lighter
tonight. VFR conditions are expected to persist into the overnight
hours tonight.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RAS
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