Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
640 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Surface analysis reveals very quiet conditions across much of the
country. A rather broad 1026mb high pressure system was located just
north of the North Dakota border and has been steadily sliding
southeast over the past few hours. Closer to our region, a secondary
cold front is crossing parts of central Kentucky at this hour, with
winds behind the front generally out of the northwest, while winds
ahead of the front have been westerly to southwesterly. This
secondary cold front will keep temperatures a bit cooler this
afternoon compared to yesterday, setting up another fantastic late
June day with very low humidity and refreshing breezes.

Clouds will begin increasing this afternoon as a shortwave embedded
within the base of a trough axis begins to pivot into the Ohio River
Valley. A few places in southern Indiana may see precipitation fall
before sunset, but the majority of folks will have their best shots
of precipitation after the sun goes down. Instability will be
limited ahead of the shortwave, so not a lot in the way of
thunderstorm activity. Models still diverge on placement of
precipitation, so am not totally confident on where the "heaviest"
hit places will be. Regardless, given the Canadian origins of the
system, there is not a lot of moisture to work with, so most places
should see less than a quarter inch of rainfall.

There could be some lingering shower activity across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, but the system should push out of the area
by Tuesday afternoon. Another beautiful late June day will be in
store again, with high temperatures similar to Monday.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Surface high pressure will be just east of the CWA by Tuesday
evening, and will continue to slide off toward the east through the
long term. This will set the stage for weak ridging aloft and a
southerly flow regime over the Ohio River Valley, resulting in
warming temperatures and increasing humidity.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms could return as early as
Thursday as an elongated frontal boundary associated with a low
pressure system near the Great Lakes region takes aim at northern
portions of the CWA. After that, the late week to weekend period
will feature unsettled weather as a couple of different waves move
off the Plains toward our region, resulting in increasing chances
for showers and storms.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon June 26 2017

VFR conditions expected through the day. Vis and ceiling unlimited
with only a few-sct high-based cu, and WNW winds around 10 kt during
peak heating. Clouds will thicken and lower overnight, with strato-
cu ceilings remaining just barely VFR as a disturbance comes in from
the NW. Precip chances looking better in the latest guidance, so
will introduce VCSH across the board well after midnight, but if it
does happen any resrictions will be brief and impacts limited.


Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of this week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75




Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
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