Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 250005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
SHARP WARMING TREND AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH WILL MODERATE THE
WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW BENIGN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECTING SIMILAR STRATUS BEHAVIOR AS LAST
NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN COMPLETELY OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AS WELL AS SLO AND NORTHERN SBA
COUNTIES. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD SHRINK BY ABOUT 500 TO 1000 FEET
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD TAKE SOME OF THE STRATUS OUT OF THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND HELP THE CLOUDS SPREAD OUT BETTER OVER SOUTHERN SBA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND
ASSOCIATE STRATUS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN THE BIG PICTURE...BUT
THERE WILL BE RANDOM UNEXPECTED VARIATIONS WHICH WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY CHANGE WORTH
NOTING IS FOR SOME EXTRA HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PATIENTLY WAITING
TO THE WEST SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THEN ENVELOPE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH COULD BE MORE STUBBORN AND SOLID
THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW THANKS TO A LIKELY STRONG INVERSION.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL SECTION MOSTLY FREE FROM THE WARMING
TREND...AND MODERATE SOME OF THE WARMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0000Z.

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3200 FT DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 5900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
TIMING COULD BE UP TO TWO HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 16Z..

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 17Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 10Z BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE E PAC HIGH WEAKENS
OFF THE COAST WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT THE FLOW TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...CS
SYNOPSIS...RK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.