Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 281753
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will build into the region by Friday,
bringing a warming trend away from the coast. Some cooling is
expected away from the coast this weekend into early next week as
high pressure weakens. Night to morning low clouds and patchy will
continue for coastal areas, extending into the valleys at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

A weak eddy spun up overnight but low cloud coverage wasn`t quite
as complete as expected. In any case, all areas will be a little
cooler today. A little breezy in the Antelope Valley and a weak
Sundowner again for southern SB County again tonight but below
advisory levels in both cases. Expecting low clouds to fill in a
little better tonight. Otherwise a pretty quiet pattern today and
the next several.

***From previous discussion***

Thursday looks pretty much like a do-over day except that there
will be better marine layer stratus coverage and the stronger
onshore flow will keep more beaches cloudy. Max temps will be very
similar to todays save for the cloudy beaches which will be
cooler.

The ridge will roll in on Friday and hgts will rise up to 592 DM.
It will arrive along will offshore flow from the north. This will
reduce or eliminate the marine layer stratus from the vlys and
will allow for a decent warm up across the area and esp in the
vlys.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

The calender may say July but the weather will say June.

Friday`s ridge will be replaced by a trof and stronger onshore
flow. The GFS is more trofy with stronger onshore flow (and hence
cooler) than the EC. Favored the GFS for this forecast as it has
been a little more consistent.

There will be night through morning low clouds and fog across the
coasts and most of the vlys while the remainder of the area will
have mostly clear skies. Max temps will fall to seasonal normals
on Saturday and then will change little through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1750Z.

Sounding marine layer information missing due to server outage.

Moderate confidence in VFR conditions everywhere through 00Z, with
a 50 percent chance of bkn010 conditions at any given hour today
at KOXR and 30 percent chance at KLAX KSMO. Moderate confidence
in deeper and more expansive marine layer tonight south of Santa
Barbara, and a shallower less expansive marine layer to the
north. 99 percent chance of CIG 006-012 at KSMX KSBP KOXR KCMA
KSMO KLAX KLGB tonight, 70 percent chance at KBUR KVNY, 20 percent
chance at KPRB. Moderate confidence in TAF timing +/- 3 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z...with a
30 percent chance of a couple of hours of bkn010 19-23Z. 80
percent chance of CIGS arriving 04-10Z, with bases at 008-012.
Catalina Eddy expected Thursday morning, with SE winds likely
05-08KT at times after 10Z. 10 percent chance of exceeding 10 KT.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through 06Z. 70 percent
chance of CIGS around 006 arriving 08-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions from the
Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Thursday
night, with Gale Force winds possible by Friday night. Will likely
extend the current SCA another day with the afternoon forecast,
and may issue a Gale Watch for Friday. There will be lulls each
morning within 10 miles from the coast. Moderate confidence in
the Santa Barbara Channel staying below SCA for the next few days.
Southeast winds may be locally gusty each morning in the San Pedro
and Santa Barbara Channels.

Two distinct wave types will be observable over the waters, and a
short period (6-8 second) west swell and/or wind wave. The buoys
will likely highlight the long period swell at times, but the
short period swell will be most noticeable and will be highlighted
in the forecast. By later tonight, the short-period west swell
will dominate as the south swell fades.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(FRI-TUE)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles



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