Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 292127
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
DRY AND RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IN EASTERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTY AND MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF NORTH BEND. TODAY IS GOING TO
BE THE "COOLEST" DAY OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
VALUES LIKELY FOR MANY WESTSIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN FACT SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WHICH
COULD RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORIES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, SO THE COAST MAY BE
THE ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE SPARED FROM THE HEAT. IT`S HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT IF YOU WORK OUTDOORS AND/OR ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT...YOU WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS. AS ALWAYS...WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING...DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER...SEEK SHADED AREAS AND WEAR SUNSCREEN. ALSO NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN...DISABLED PERSONS...OR PETS IN UNATTENDED IN PARKED
VEHICLES.

NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MODELS
HINT AT WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT LITTLE OR NO TRIGGER. FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE...ILLINOIS...SHASTA AND
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS AND THAT`S ONLY THE BEGINNING.

THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE RE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENT THINKING IS MOST
STORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL AND
POSSIBLE SOUTHERN CASCADES...THEN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE STEERING WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. IF THE WINDS END UP MORE SOUTHEAST, THEN IT`S
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO PARTS OF
THE WESTSIDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN WERE STILL A WAYS OUT, THE DETAILS ON
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS WILL VARY...SO STAY TUNED.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR STRATUS
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
ARAGO. THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND AGAIN AFTER 00Z AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY DURING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
THE STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING TUESDAY MORNING. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, MODOC COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY 29 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN WIND WAVE
DOMINATED THROUGH THE WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEAKER WINDS NEAR
SHORE AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THAT WILL PRODUCE GALES DURING THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE THERMAL
TROUGH REBUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE GFS INDICATES WINDS WILL
APPROACH BUT REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE OUTER WATERS. DW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY 29 JUNE 2015...THERE ARE A
FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS INTO OREGON ZONE 625 AND
THESE COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL AT
AROUND 15 MPH. ON TUESDAY, A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
SISKIYOU COUNTY CASCADES AND FROM THE WARNER MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY EVENING AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL
BRING VERY HOT NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA BEFORE A MODEST COOLING TREND BEGINS WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2
     PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$


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