Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 030301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...03/00Z NAM IN.

CLOUD COVER INHIBITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT SOME DID DEVELOP AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...MOSTLY OVER MODOC/LAKE COUNTY AND COOS/CURRY COUNTY. A
FEW ARE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTY AND OFFSHORE.

THE SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA...CLEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...BUT IT WILL STILL
BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY...AND
THIS WILL BRING FLOW ALOFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME FREE THINKING WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST NAM RUN BRINGS THE SHORT
WAVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING...A LITTLE LATE
TO CATCH THE MAX SURFACE HEATING...BUT IT MAY KICK OFF A ROUND OF
MOSTLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFD...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT, THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MODOC AND
LAKE COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, THEN
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE IN LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR NORTH BEND AND
ROSEBURG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITY.
OUTSIDE THE SMOKE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER WHICH INCLUDES PARTS OF
CURRY COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY EAST OF THE CASCADES. STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS. AT THE COAST,
AREAS IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT AND
BETWEEN 5-6Z SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TO BROOKINGS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
AND SEAS SMALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING THE CLOUD DECK FROM THE SUNDAY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT MOST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING BETTER
SURFACE HEATING THAN SUNDAY. THE FLOW THAT IS FEEDING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS WILL
PUSH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE. ON TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
NINETY DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ617-621-623-
        624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
        ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15


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