Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260044
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
844 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will extend over the area through
Monday. A cold front will move through from the west Tuesday
night. An upper level low pressure system will move into the Mid-
Atlantic region Thursday and linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Sun...Latest sfc analysis shows cold front extending
from Western NC into Eastern SC...and 1025mb high pressure
centered over Western Quebec extending into the Mid-Atlantic and
NC. High pressure will continue to build southward overnight.
Showers have remained south of the area this afternoon closer to
the front and expect dry conditions overnight across eastern NC.
Clouds are persisting across much of the region this evening
except far NE sections and OBX. Latest guidance shows some erosion
overnight along southern coastal sections but hanging on across
inland sections so have increased sky cover through the period
with the update. Pleasantly cooler temps with low level NE flow.
Overnight lows generally 60-65 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...High pressure to the north will gradually weaken
its hold over the area as it shifts off the eastern US while cold
front approaches from the west. Will add isolated shower mention
across the western coastal plain during afternoon, with high res
models showing potential for very isolated shower activity. Low
level thickness values and increasing cloud cover support highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...No significant changes made to previous
forecast. Little precip expected until late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Model forecast soundings show moisture a bit
slower to return ahead of advancing cold front. Also, models show
much of the moisture along and behind the front. Began low chance
PoPs across the area after 06Z Tuesday. The front will pass
through eastern NC Tuesday night and move off the coast early
Wednesday, but moisture will be slow to clear out. Made only minor
adjustments to rain chances Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping
mainly 40-50%. Models now slower to move out precip Wednesday
night, then reintroduce PoPs Thursday with GFS now trending more
like the ECMWF and cutting off an upper low in the OH valley
region Wednesday night, slowly moving southeastward into Friday.
Will therefore keep low chance on Thursday...and may need to add
pop into Friday as well if models continue keep cutoff low in the
vicinity. Models continue to differ with the track of the low and
its movement. Will not make significant changes and lean towards
previous forecast. Will keep forecast dry this weekend, except for
a slight chance along the immediate coast/OBX and coastal waters
in northeast flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...Cigs have been gradually lifting through the
afternoon and expect pred VFR conditions through the period.
Currently seeing widespread VFR cigs across much of eastern NC with
MVFR cigs persisting across far SW sections, however expect to
lift to VFR here by mid evening. Latest guidance is hanging on to
cigs around 4-5 KFT through Monday afternoon, especially inland
areas, so will keep VFR cigs in the TAFS except EWN where guidance
showing clouds becoming scattered after midnight. Light NE flow
and clouds should preclude fog development overnight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Sub-VFR in scattered showers Tuesday through
Thursday. Patchy fog and stratus will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 415 PM Sunday...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt and seas
3-5 feet. High pressure will build in from the north overnight and
Monday. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kt tonight with seas
subsiding to 2-4 feet. Winds will be gradually veering Monday as
high to the north weakens and shifts off the coast...with E flow
5-15 kt becoming SE with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Wind direction will make several changes in the
long term, but speeds will remain rather light as pressure
gradient will remain loose. Corresponding seas will remain well
below Small Craft advisory levels, no higher than 2-4 feet. High
pressure to the north Monday night will move east, and a cold
front will approach from the west Tuesday. As a result, winds will
steadily veer from east on Monday to southeast Monday night, then
south on Tuesday. The cold front will pass through the marine
zones early Wednesday with winds becoming northerly and continuing
into Thursday. Wind directions remain uncertain for Thursday and
Friday with models now cutting off an upper low well west of the
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...SK/HSA
MARINE...SK/CQD/HSA



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