Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241405
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass will interact with a slow moving cold front
impacting Eastern NC this weekend. The front will meander just
off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM Sat...No significant changes with this update.

Radar currently clear across the area but could start to see a
few showers develop in the next few hours as daytime heating
increases. SPC continues to outlook the region in a Marginal
Risk for severe storms today. Scattered showers and storms
are expected this afternoon and evening, initially triggered by
the seabreeze with better forcing late. Pre-frontal trough and
increasing mid/upr winds will lead to marginal deep layer shear
of 25-35 kt which may support a few strong storms this afternoon
and evening, with marginally severe hail and strong downburst
winds. HRRR model is a bit slower to develop convection this
afternoon, while the NSSL WRF is much quicker developing robust
organized convection. Increased pops slightly from previous
forecast based on high res models. Low level thickness values
support highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today, combined with
dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will climb to or just above
100 degrees. Breezy SW winds continue this morning, strongest
along the coast with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Expect winds to
diminish a bit late this morning and afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Deep moisture will overspread the region
tonight as tropical airmass interacts with an approaching
frontal boundary. Front is progged to push into the coastal
plain late tonight and early Sun morning.

Expect instability to wane with loss of heating, but forecast
soundings still show MU CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, 30-40kt
0-6km bulk shear overnight. Threat for isolated strong storms
with gusty winds will continue overnight, but think the main
threat will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding. Localized flash flooding will be possible
tonight with PWATS 2.25-2.5", warm cloud layer upwards of
14,000 ft, and storm motions nearly parallel to the upper level
flow. These factors will lead to very efficient rain processes,
and training of storms. Storm total rainfall 0.5-1.5" with
higher amounts possible, at this time expect higher totals along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...After wet weather Sunday and scattered
showers Monday and Tuesday, cooler and much drier air will
spread into eastern NC from Wednesday into next weekend.

Sunday...A frontal boundary combined with deep moisture
(Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches) will lead to a
wet day along the coast as low-level moisture transport and
deep omega is maximized. With the cold front across the central
CWA, expect a sharp precip/moisture gradient, thus categorical
PoPs on the coast tapering back to low chance over the Coastal
Plains. Still enough instability around Sunday morning for a few
strong storms with CAPEs around 1000 J/kg near the coast.
Despite a good deal of cloud cover, high temperatures should
reach the mid/upper 80s in most areas Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday...As the frontal boundary and
associated deeper moisture lingers near the coast, will have a
slight to low chance PoP along the coast Sunday night into
Monday night. Precipitation will be enhanced inland as well on
Tuesday as a strong mid-level shortwave dives southeast across
the Carolinas and Virginia.

Tuesday night through Friday...Strong high pressure will move
from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to off the coast by Friday.
This high will provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower
humidities and cooler low temperatures. Lows Wednesday morning
will range from the upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s coast with
highs Wednesday upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures quickly
warm however as southwest winds return and highs return to the
upper 80s for late week and lows moderate into the muggy 70s
once again by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 650 AM Sat...Mix of VFR and MVFR this morning across the
sites, with scattered to broken ceilings around 2 kft. SW wind
gusts to around 20 kt today. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected to develop this afternoon and tonight. Some
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible
this afternoon and tonight. Sub-VFR conditions expected in
convection, and expect pred sub-VFR to develop tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Periods of sub-VFR ceilings and vsbys
may occur Sunday, particularly at KEWN and KOAJ as axis of deep
moisture impacts the region. Think most of the rainfall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday night will be east of the TAF
sites and VFR should prevail. Scattered thunderstorms may
produce scattered MVFR ceilings/vsbys Tuesday, but will not be
widespread. VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as high pressure builds in. As usual, patchy late night/early
morning fog will be possible, especially in areas that receive
rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1000 AM Sat...No significant changes with this update. Strong
winds and rough seas continue today. Latest obs show SW winds
20-25kt with gusts to 30kt and seas 4-9 ft. A cold front will
slowly move eastward today and tonight, pushing into Eastern NC
late tonight and early Sunday. SCA continues for the Albemarle
Sound, Alligator River, inland rivers and northern waters
through this afternoon, and Pamlico Sound and waters south of
Oregon Inlet through late tonight and Sunday morning. Gusty
winds 20-30 kt will continue through this morning, diminishing
to 15-25 kt this afternoon. Could see seas peaking as high as
5-9 feet, highest across the outer central waters. Winds and
seas slowly subsiding overnight and Sunday morning. SW winds
15-25 kt tonight, with seas subsiding to 4-7 feet south of
Oregon Inlet. Winds become more WSW/W early Sunday morning.
Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
becoming more widespread tonight. Some strong storms with gusty
winds and frequent lightning possible.

Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Any Small Craft Advisory level seas
should subside fairly quickly on Sunday morning and drop to 2-4
feet during the afternoon. Winds Monday into Tuesday will be
light at 10 knots or less and swing from N on Monday to S Monday
night ahead of strong cold front. Expect winds to become
Northerly Tuesday through Wednesday behind cold front. Models
still not indicate a real strong surge behind the front as winds
will generally be N/NE at around 10 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Sat...Minor coastal flooding will be possible at
times of high tide through the weekend. Moderate threat of rip
currents north of Cape Hatteras, and High threat south of Cape
Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...RSB/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RSB/CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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