Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270635
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
235 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through Friday night.
Low pressure off the coast of the southeast US will move
northwest. The low will weaken to a trof of low pressure along
the coast this weekend and linger through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 am Fri...High pressure in the western Atlantic will
continue to extend into the area. Forecast soundings and time
sections show little if any moisture so only a few scattered
afternoon CU expected. Highs in the lower to mid 80s east of
highway 17, with upper 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 am Fri...Same dry airmass in place so clear skies
overnight. Lows in the lower to mid 60s, except upper 60s Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 am Fri...Latest models continue in pretty good
agreement showing weak tropical/subtropical low to move slowly
toward the coast south of the area later this weekend then
meandering N/NW early next week. No real changes in current
expected impacts for eastern NC with enhanced chances of rain and
a higher threat of rip currents through midweek.

Saturday...As tropical/subtropical low approaches the coast,
deeper moisture will spread w across the area Sat. Think the
morning will have limited precip mainly near coast with scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms spreading inland during the
afternoon. Seasonal temperatures are expected with and highs
around 80 beaches to low/mid 80s inland.

Saturday night through Thursday...Consensus of medium range models
show circulation moving inland across SC Saturday night/Sunday
then meandering to our south and west before slowly moving north
and gradually and eventually dissipating by late week. Deep feed
of moisture associated with the surface low and the attendant
clumps of vorticity associated with the mid-level circulation
will lead to continuing high chance of showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into the middle of next week. As the surface
system slowly dissipates, rain chance should diminish starting
Wednesday into Thursday. Despite the good coverage of clouds and
rain, temperatures should be near normal with lows in the 60s and
highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 230 am Fri...VFR in the short term. Mostly clear today with
only a few afternoon CU expected, and clear most of tonight. Some
scattered stratocu will begin to spread in from the SE near
sunrise Sat. Southeast winds around 10 knots or less today, near
calm tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Fri...Scattered shra and a few TSRA will spread
inland Sat afternoon with likely a few periods of sub VFR
developing. Plenty of moisture and scattered to possibly numerous
showers and a few TSRA expected rest of period as weak
subtropical/tropical low forecast to move onshore to the south
late this weekend then drift slowly north early next week. Expect
occasional sub VFR in the showers from time to time. With low
levels very moist could also have some lower cigs and poss light
fog late at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 230 am Fri...Light winds and seas in the short term. High
pressure will extend across the area resulting in variable wind
directions early this morning. During the day, as the low off the
coast of the southeast US continues to drift NW, winds will become
SE to S and continue into tonight. Wind speeds will average 5-10
knots and seas 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Fri...Predominate E winds 10 to 15 kts early Sat
will become more SE late as weak low pressure approaches SE coast.
The low is forecast by most of the models to drift onshore S of
the area late this weekend the move very slowly mainly to the N
thru early next week. This will lead to mainly SE to S winds
Sunday into early next week along the coast with speeds for now
expected to be aob 15 kts. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to show
some 6 foot seas developing outer waters Sat and Sat night as get
bit of swell from the low. Seas then subside to 3-5 feet Sunday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF



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