Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 261544
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10AM WED...SFC LOW PRES LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 6 MB 3-HR PRES
FALLS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXPECT TO LOW TO QUICKLY
PULL OFF THE NRN OBX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO AHEAD OF
THE LOW WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LIMITED
CAPE...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BUT STRETCHING INLAND TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUND COUNTIES. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE WARM MOIST AIR ALONG THE COAST
AND COOLER AIR INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY NWD INTO PAMLICO COUNTY...THEN ORIENTED NE
ACROSS MAINLAND HYDE AND DARE COUNTY AND OFF THE COAST OF KITTY
HAWK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS
GRADIENT OF TEMPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO MID 40S INLAND WHICH HAS BEEN TOUGH TO CAPTURE THE
TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE OR FALL TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NC FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS RTES
THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRES LIFTING NE ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE LOW
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH N/NW FLOW BRINGING IN MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS GRADIENT GUSTING 20-25KT...ALTHOUGH
SEEING HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH A WED GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW PRES IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE THIS
MORNIGN AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
SLY WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH NLY
WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND
RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/CQD
MARINE...BTC/SK/CQD







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