Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 222233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
633 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A BATTLE WILL BE GOING ON BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOUTH AND A DECELERATING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HAS SENT A DRY
INTRUSION INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY WHILE THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE AND BACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW
STALLED OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER
GA/SC IS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
INITIALLY THINK THE DRY AIR WILL DEFLECT THIS MOISTURE EAST
KEEPING IT PRIMARILY JUST OFF THE COAST AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS.
WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND (IF AT ALL).
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH LATE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIDING THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM. THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS
PRODUCING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 3000
FT EXCEPT FOR KOAJ/KEWN WHICH COULD SEE MVFR BASES DEVELOP BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP AND
COULD AFFECT KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...WITH FRONT NOW STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY SITES
REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3
TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT 09Z SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF OREGON INLET
AS NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JME






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.