Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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211
FXUS62 KMHX 280248
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1048 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Wednesday...updated to indicate scattered
convective activity will persist from around New Bern to off Cape
Lookout next 1-2 hours. For overnight, think only threat will be
over northern sections from possible outflow with upstream
activity, thus kept 20% POPs there. Precip has cooled some areas
to mid 70s and adjusted min temps to reflect this. Convective
debris will keep cloudy skies over area next few hours.

/Previous discussion/
As of 800 PM Wednesday...extended chance POPs farther south this
evening with line of storms developing along intersection of
outflow and sea breeze from west of New Bern to around Ocracoke.
Expect activity to persist another 1-2 hours, then diminish with
loss of heating. Slight chance POPs for northern half of area
overnight as upstream activity may be of longer duration. Minor
adjustments to sky cover and added patchy light fog mention late
tonight for area that had storms earlier.

/Previous discussion/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Oppressive heat conts over region with
temps well into the 90s for all but beaches. No change with heat
advisory thru early evening with heat index values mainly ranging
from 105 to 109...a few sites even aoa 110 at times. Good instab
has developed and starting to see some convection fire to the W.
Forcing is limited and winds aloft quite weak with mid/upr ridge
just to the S...so expect mainly wdly sct to sct storms this
afternoon and cont into the evening...especially inland. As usual
for this time of year with good instab a brief marginal severe
storm with strong winds will be possible...however storm
organization unlikely given weak flow aloft. Overnight will keep
small pop nrn tier but expect mainly dry conditions after evening
convection fades. No change to temps with muggy lows 75 to 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...issued another Heat Advisory for all but
OBX Hyde county for Thu afternoon. If higher dew points persist,
case could be made for Excessive Heat Warning but will let next
shift take a look.

/Previous discussion/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Not much overall change with big ridge
aloft cont to the S...it may nudge E a bit allowing a little
better winds aloft to spread over the region. Cont hot with temps
away from beaches well into the 90s and heat index values above
105 again. Models show slightly drier air aloft over the region
with precip water values dropping a bit. Still expect wdly sct to
sct storms to develop with good instab and with winds aloft a
little stronger may have a better chc of a severe storm or two
with damaging winds especially NW tier. Will cont trends of prev
fcst with higher pops inland and lower to no pops beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wed...Heat and humidity will continue through the
first part of the weekend. A cold front will move south into NC
this weekend and will stall somewhere over the region through
early next week. There will be scattered convection Thursday to
Saturday with more widespread rain/thunderstorms expected Sunday
through early next week.

Friday...Lower dewpoints will help limit CAPE values across E NC
on Friday. However, shortwave energy traveling through central NC
could add to the instability, and act as a trigger. With ample
flow aloft,some storms could be severe, but coverage will be
limited. High temperatures once again will reach the upper 90s
inland and the low 90s near the coast.

Saturday...Front will slowly approach from the north on Saturday.
There may be some scattered sea breeze convection early in the
afternoon, but more widespread convection will move in from the
NW later in the afternoon. High temperatures will maybe be a
degree or two lower, still in the mid to upper 90s inland and the
low 90s along the coast.

Sunday through Wednesday...Impulses will ride along the stalled front
leading to periods of widespread rain and thunderstorms. High
pressure originating in coastal New England, will attempt to
build in off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday which will help
dry things out, at least for the northern tier. 850 mb
temperatures will decrease for this period, and combined with
increased cloud cover will drop high temperatures into the low 90s
inland/upper 80s coast Sunday and Monday, and then a few more
degrees lower Tuesday and Wednesday.

Low temperatures through the weekend and early next week will
range from the low/mid 70s inland to the upper 70s/low 80s along
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /Through 00Z Friday/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...KEWN will see period of sub-VFR with TSRA
through 02Z, otherwise VFR expected all sites through TAF period.
Evening storms will affect areas from KEWN to east early evening,
then just a slight chance of storms northern sections overnight.
If significant rain occurs at KEWN, there could be period of sub-
VFR fog late tonight but will let next shift assess that for 06Z
TAF issuance. Main chance of afternoon TSRA on Thursday will be at
KISO and KPGV.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 245 PM Wed...VFR conditions expected for most of the long
term. The exceptions being scattered convection Friday and
Saturday, and possibly more widespread rain/convection for Sunday
and Monday. Patchy morning fog will be possible, especially where
precip occurred. Winds will continue to be SW 5-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Thu/
As of 1100 PM Wednesday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 230 PM Wednesday...High pressure offshore and trof to the
W and N will lead to mainly SW winds thru the period. Gradient is
looser nrn tier and may see variable winds these waters especially
into this evening. Speeds will peak in the late afternoon and
early evening hours srn tier with some gusts to around 20 kts poss
during these times...otherwise speeds mainly 5 to 15 kts. Seas 1
to 3 feet N and 2 to 4 feet central and S wl cont.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 245 PM Wed...Scattered convection possible Friday and
Saturday with more widespread thunderstorms possible Sunday and
Monday. Winds will be 10 to 20 knots out of the SW, but will turn
more westerly over the northern waters Monday afternoon. Seas are
expected to be 2 to 4 feet through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SGK
MARINE...RF/JBM/SGK



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