Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 290729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT BISECTING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH 1012MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WV AND
ASSOCIATED AND COLD FRONT FRONT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND FROM
ABOUT KINSTON TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING...AS WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD...WHILE INITIAL AREA
OF SHOWERS MOVES OFF THE COAST. CONVECTION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN WITH LITTLE LINGERING THREAT OTHER THAN BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING ALL THE
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST BY 10-12Z. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...SPREADING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 65-70 DEGREES
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND 70S TO AROUND 80 DEG INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH...BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE MID-WEST. AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 55-60 DEGREES WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT E/SE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON
S/SW FLOW SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5 TO
1.75 INCHES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND
AXIS OF STRONG H7-H5 LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT LEADS TO HIGH CHANCE POPS INLAND TO LOW CHANCE COAST WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY GIVEN LIFT
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE CLOUD COVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST CONTINUES
FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. GFS CONTINUES
DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WHILE THE ECMWF IS
RATHER WET...WITH THE CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT OF A
DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING
THURSDAY AS AXIS OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES...WHILE COOLER FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...WILL
STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE WITH
COVERAGE TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING
AND GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR...POSSIBLY
LIFR...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM 07Z TO 10Z. THE
STRATUS WILL LINGER THRU 12 TO 13Z THEN GRAD LIFT AND SCT OUT TO
VFR LATE MORN. PRED VFR REST OF THE PERIOD WITH PC TO MCLR SKIES
AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE N. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS
SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SKIRTING WEST OF THE REGION...SATURDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP LIFT SET UP ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF POOR CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND SW WINDS 10-15KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS WITH SEAS 2-4FT. FRONT IS
NOW NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND BISECTING THE PAMLICO SOUND. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BY LATE MORNING...WITH ALL WINDS BECOMING N/NE. COULD SEE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20KT BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY BUT THINK
THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. N/NE WINDS 5-15KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15KT OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS 2-4FT...WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 5FT ON THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AT 3-5 FEET OR LESS. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS VEER TO S/SW SUNDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS
AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND A FEW 6 FOOT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOME NW/N AND DROP OFF TO 5-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.