Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1030 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Monday. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold
front will move through Saturday night.


As of 1030 PM Sun...No changes needed with update. Light rain
and sprinkles across the Piedmont will remain west of the FA
through the rest of the overnight.

Previous discussion...As of 730 PM Sun...Only change to expand
patchy fog eastward towards the hwy 17 corridor, based on
persistence from last night`s obs. Otherwise no other changes to
early eve update.

Previous Discussion...As of 300 PM Sunday...added isolated
shower/20 pop/ for western and southern sections early this
evening with radar continuing to indicate some light activity
moving in from off the water. This activity expected to weaken
with loss of heating. Dampening short wave will move across
overnight from w-se but all models indicate current associated
scattered shower activity will dry up trying to move east and
kept no-pop forecast overnight. Guidance indicates current
widespread SCU across area will thin/scatter this evening, but
some additional SCU moving in overnight with short wave. Light
southerly flow will keep min temps in low-mid 50s.


As of 300 PM Sunday...mild warm sector conditions will continue
with orientation of offshore surface high and low pressure to
west and north resulting in return of more SW surface flow. Weak
short wave will move across in afternoon and atmosphere will be
slightly more conducive to convective activity to support 20%
POP over coastal plains. Low level thicknesses rising about 10
meters supports max temps 75-80 inland and low-mid 70s coast.


As of 330 PM Sunday... Minor tweaks to the long term forecast
as models continue to show good agreement.

Monday night through late Tuesday...High pressure will be somewhat
anchored over Eastern NC through early Tuesday morning as mid-level
shortwave and cold front approaches the area Tuesday. Rain chances
increase Tuesday and taper off from west to east late Tuesday night.
Expect the bulk of the rain to be during the afternoon as peak
heating is max and forecast soundings are showing marginal to
moderate instability. The GFS forecast sounding is a stronger MU
CAPE values increasing to 1400-2000 J/kg, LI around -6 C and 0-6km
shear around 25 kts and then increasing to 45 kt by evening. While
the NAM shows MU CAPE increasing to 1000-1400 J/kg, LI around
-4 to -5 C and 0-6km shear around 25 kts increasing to 50 kts by
early evening. Overall, there is a good chance for thunderstorms as
SPC currently has the area under general thunder, plus with high PW
can not rule out a brief downpour. Expect highs in the upper 70s/low
80s inland to 60s along the coast.

Wednesday through Thursday....Will dry as high pressure builds in
from the north...bringing cooler airmass into NC. Have dropped
dewpoint and high temperature slightly as the area will be influenced
under a northeasterly flow. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland to
low/mid 60s along the coast (it wouldn`t surprise me if temps trend
lower) for Wednesday and temps will be lower on Thursday... with
highs reaching to the 60s inland to mid/upper 50s OBX. Overnight
lows will be in the 40s.

Thursday night through Sunday...Low pressure system develops over
the Southern Plains and tracks into the OH valley while it develops
a secondary low around DELMARVA on late Friday night as the warm
front lifts north. Rain chances will increase late Thursday night
through Friday with 60% PoPs. Cold front will push through Saturday
morning and rain should taper off from west to east during the day.
By Saturday night, the area should be rain-free as high pressure
builds into the region through Sunday. Highs will be in the upper
60s/low 70s inland to 60s along the coast on Friday, while Saturday
and Sunday high temps will reach into the low 70s inland to low 60s
over the OBX.


Short Term /Through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...Generally VFR through the TAF pd, though
some tempo FG/BR again late tonight to early Mon morning with
light/calm winds and T-TD depressions near 0. Diurnal strato cu
has dissipated with loss of heating and mo clear skies expected
tonight. Fair weather again expected for Monday with winds
shifting to be more SW with diurnal strato cu developing once
again by afternoon. Could be an iso shower across the coastal
plain but not enough of a chance to mention even a VCSH.

As of 330 PM Sunday...Expect sub-VFR conditions late Monday
through Tuesday and again Friday as showers and thunderstorms
move through ENC. VFR conditions after the frontal passage on
Wednesday and lasting through Thursday.


Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 1030 PM Sunday...Subtle change in offshore surface high
orientation will lead to SE winds 5-10 kt tonight becoming SSW
10-15 KT Monday. Current 2-3 foot seas will gradually build to
3-4 feet late tonight and Monday.

As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure will remain anchored off
the coast through Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches the
waters. Expect S/SW winds 10-15 knots late Monday to Tuesday
and then increases to 15-20 knots ahead of the front. Frontal
boundary is expected to cross the waters Wednesday morning as
high pressure builds back again through Thursday with N/NE winds
10-20 knots. Winds will start to veer from NE to S Friday as a
warm front lifts through the area as southerly flow increases to
15-25 knots. In general, seas will be 3-5 ft through most of
the week, except for Tuesday afternoon as seas build 4-6 ft
between Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout with the frontal passage.
Seas are expected to build again Friday above 6 ft as southerly
flow increases ahead of the next approaching cold front.




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