Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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020
FXUS62 KMHX 170823
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
323 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through Eastern North Carolina today, then
a cold front will move through Wednesday. High pressure will
briefly build over the area Thursday, then another front will move
through Friday. A strong frontal system will impact the area
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Latest sfc analysis shows 1026mb high pressure
anchored along the east coast, with warm front to the south. High
pressure will continue to shift off the east coast today, as warm
front lifts north through Eastern NC. Widespread low clouds this
morning, with some patchy fog possible. Southerly flow will
develop behind the warm front this afternoon, allowing clouds to
scatter out a bit and temps to warm. Still looks warm today, but
lowered temps from previous forecast a degree or two, given
widespread cloud cover early. Low level thickness values and
developing southerly flow support highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Though some upper 60s will be possible across the SW zones
this afternoon if low clouds are able to scatter out. Isolated
showers possible today, with the warm front, and then ahead of an
approaching cold front this afternoon. Will continue sc mention,
mainly across the northern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tue...A cold front will approach from the WNW
overnight. Shower chances increase, with best chances across the
northern half of the forecast area. Will continue likely pops
across the northern tier, and chance south. Confidence is low at
this time, but areas of sea fog could develop this evening and
overnight, with southwesterly flow and rising dewpoints. Mild
overnight with cloud cover, precip and SW flow. Lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday, an omega block at the mid-levels over the
southwestern United States will keep the southeast in a mild
airmass through much of the next week. Some disturbances in the
mid-level flow coupled with weak cold fronts, will lead to
enhanced rain chances Wednesday, Friday with a stronger system to
bring more widespread rain Sunday night into Monday.

Wednesday...a surface coldfront will cross the region Wednesday
afternoon coupled with a strong mid-level shortwave moving just
north of our CWA. Expect a good coverage of showers and have
continued PoPs in the high chance to likely category, with the
highest probabilities near the coast. With a weak ribbon of
instability indicated across the southern CWA, have added a slight
chance of thunderstorms for Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will
be quite warm, well into the 60s with some lower 70s possible
inland.

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure will briefly
build along the Atlantic Coast leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, ranging in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday night through Friday night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move across the region coupled with an increase in deeper
Atlantic moisture, leading to another round of showers moving into
the western CWA late Thursday night and across our CWA Friday into
Friday evening.

Saturday and Saturday night...This will be another transitional
day between systems as skies will be partly sunny with increased
clouds late Saturday night. Temperatures remain above normal.

Sunday through Tuesday...A very dynamic system is expected to
evolve as the omega block over the Southwestern United States
breaks down and the mid-level low and attendant surface low moves
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. This will increase the low-
level moisture into our region as set up a chance of widespread
showers. The low-level flow becomes strongly backed to the
southeast Monday, so some potential would exist for severe weather
if any instability can develop. Way too early to make that
determination at this point. Temperatures will remain very mild
for January through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 245 AM Tue...VFR currently across the terminals, but expect
conditions to deteriorate over the next few hours. The forecast
remains challenging...but have high confidence that all terminals
will see sub-VFR conditions develop this morning. IFR ceilings
are starting to develop in some locations across Eastern NC, and
forecast soundings/guidance/high res guidance show the potential
for all four sites seeing a period of IFR this morning. Some
patchy fog will also be possible, but expect widespread sub-VFR
ceilings. A warm front will lift north through the area today,
and expect conditions to gradually improve to MVFR late this
morning and VFR by late this afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers possible today, but think the better precip chances will
be overnight into Wednesday morning. Sub-VFR conditions could
return overnight with showers and possibly patchy fog.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, widespread showers and a potential
thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening. Periods of MVFR or
lower ceilings are likely. Weak high pressure builds quickly
Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected. Another
round of showers crosses the region late Thursday night through
Friday with periods of sub-VFR conditions again expected, before
again improving Saturday, the transitional day between systems.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Latest obs show N/NE winds 5-10 kt with seas
2-3 feet. Pleasant boating conditions expected today with
increasing SW winds tonight. A warm front will lift north through
the waters today, with winds becoming southerly this afternoon.
Initiated SCA for the waters South of Oregon Inlet late tonight/Wed
morning for gusty SW winds and building seas. Gusty SW winds
15-25kt expected to develop ahead of the cold front tonight, with
seas responding and building to 4-6 feet early Wed morning, south
of Oregon Inlet. Confidence is low at this time, but areas of sea
fog could develop this evening and overnight...making for
hazardous conditions.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday, gusty W/NW winds and rough seas will
continue behind a cold front into late Wednesday night before
subsiding as weak high pressure builds across the waters Thursday
into early Friday. Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through Saturday with
a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds
will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low
passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas
may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC



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