Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 251932
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure will build over the area through mid week. A cold
front will approach from the west on Thursday and cross the area
by Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday with
another cold front crossing Sunday or Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...With clear skies overnight and a dry air
mass in place, radiative cooling conditions will be good with
perhaps just a light breeze being a possible limiting factor. For
the coastal plain expect lows around 40 with a few low spots
falling into the upper 30s. Along the coast where there will be a
bit more breeze, expect low/mid 50s for lows.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will further
build over the area centered to the north and upper ridging will
develop. We will again be dry with mostly sunny skies.
Temperatureswill be around the same, or perhaps just slightly
warmer than today, reaching the middle to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Surface and upper ridging will keep the
area dry and clear through Thursday. A quick warm-up is forecast
as winds shift to south on Thursday ahead of the next cold front.
Both GFS and ECMWF in good agreement on moving cold front through
eastern NC Thursday night and off the coast Friday morning. Made
only minor adjustments to PoPs, with 30% southwest to near 50% in
the far northeast. Kept only a slight chance along the Outer Banks
before 14Z Friday. Broad surface/upper ridge briefly builds across
the southeast states Saturday. By Sunday an upper trof passing
through the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states will help flatten
the ridge and bring a cold front through the area. All available
moisture for showers will remain well to the north so maintained a
dry forecast. Yet another surface and upper ridge builds into the
region behind the front with dry conditions continuing.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 130 PM Tue...VFR with SKC through the TAF period. Cant rule out
some patchy radiational fog late tonight however threat seems small
given overall dryness of airmass.
Long Term /Wed Night through Sat/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...VFR through the period. Only exception
will be scattered mostly light showers Thursday night as a cold
front passes through. Surface winds will be south 10-15 knots
Thursday, northwest less than 10 knots Friday and southwest 5-10
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Tue...The forecast period will be dominated with
high pressure. Models were in good agreement and used a blend for
the forecast winds. Tonight winds will begin northerly and shift
to the northeast towards morning. wind speeds will be 10-15 KT
overnight. On Wednesday, winds will remain northeast and slowly
diminish to around 10 KT by late in the day. By late in the day
winds will be shifting to more of an easterly direction. Tonight
seas across the southern waters will diminish to 2 to 3 feet, but
will remain 3 to 5 feet for the central and northern waters. On
Wednesday, seas will diminish to 2 to 4 feet on the central and
Long Term /Wed through Sat/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Light easterly winds Wednesday Night will
quickly become south on Thursday and increase ahead of the next
cold front. By Thursday Night winds will be 10 to 15 KT across the
southern waters and 15 to 20 KT for the central and northern
waters. Could see some gusts to 25 KT thursday night. Winds
quickly turn to NW Friday behind the front and remain in the 15 to
20 KT range with gusts to 25 KT possible across the central and
northern waters. Expect seas 2 to 4 feet with perhaps some 5 foot
seas possible Thursday Night into Friday. Winds diminish to 10 KT
or less by Friday night and will back to southwest Saturday as the
next front approaches from the west. By late Saturday into
Saturday Night, winds will pick up to 10 to 15 KT.