Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 291642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM OCRACOKE NEW BERN. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO AROUND
CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AND THERE IS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BOTH OF WHICH WILL ACT TO HELP TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT STRONG INSOLATION AND SW
FLOW WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S CREATING A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORCING FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY WOULD BE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. ALL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM AND 00Z ECMWF DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT 20-30% POPS. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (>16000 FT) COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING. MODELS INCREASE PW VALUES TO AROUND 2"
INDICATING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC BNDRY. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG LATE GIVEN HIGH DEW POINTS
AND WEAK SFC FLOW. LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID
70S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
FLATTENS OUT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP OF IT. A
BROAD UPPER TROF DEVELOPS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY SEABREEZE-DRIVEN. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE PIEDMONT TROF REFORMS AND ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES ALL AREAS WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE CLOUDS COULD
BRIEFLY SPREAD TO KEWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT JUST MOVED
SOUTH OF THERE. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS POST FRONT
WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FIRE IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEAR NEW BERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. LATE TONIGHT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN
THE GUIDANCE THAT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN FOG
AND STRATUS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AN ALMOST SATURATED LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF FORECASTING PREVAILING MVFR
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...SOUTH
SUNDAY THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VSBYS MAINLY
VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS IN WARM
HUMID AIRMASS AND ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR HATTERAS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS E/NE WINDS TO 10-15 KT WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN
S/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH.

SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL VEER FROM
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY TO SOUTH SUNDAY THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL START OUT 5-10 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RUN 2-4
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/HSA






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