Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 291707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
107 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACRS SRN OBX WITH
HSE REPORTING LWR 80S. ALSO...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS EXTENDING
SLGT CHC PRECI ALONG SRN OBX THROUGH THE AFTN ASSOCD WITH INVERTED
TROF. REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT ELY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT
AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND
WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG


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