Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311738
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
NC COAST. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
A RATHER PROUNOUNCED SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN CONCERT WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI`S -3 TO -5...BUT A COL IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES FROM THE 12Z MHX
SOUNDING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONT TO PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN TIER TONIGHT WITH MORE
ISOLD PRECIP TO THE N. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 COASTAL PLAINS AND
THE LOWER AND MID 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES N
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SOUTHERN SXNS WITH BTR PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAT THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES ALOFT.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE 31/00Z ECM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLN. WILL FOLLOW
TRENDS OF DECREASING POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS AND 20-30 PERCENT ON THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN PER HIGH LAYER MIX
RATIOS AND COLUMN PWATS AOA 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICALLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND TO 80S COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPR
70S COAST.

MONDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY...THEN SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY PROMOTE SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY INLAND. STILL HOT AND MUGGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO 80S COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPS AS THICKNESSES AND TEMPS
BUILD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S (80S COAST). SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID WEEK AS 31/00Z GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WED/THU WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
BERMUDA HIGH AS MAIN FEATURE AND THERMAL TROUGHING INLAND. WILL
TREND WITH WPC/ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND
PRED S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS...THINKING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AT THIS TIME AND MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/STALLED FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TAF SITES.  BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION MIGRATING CLOSER TO OAJ/EWN.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLOUDS ALSO ERODING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...LINGERING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...THIS
MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OAJ/ISO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FEEL EWN MAY HAVE
TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE TO OBSERVE MUCH FOG. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NW MIGHT ALSO BE A BIT HIGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE EWN/PGV WITH A BIT HIGHER VSBYS AS COMPARED TO
OAJ/ISO. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES AT EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...STILL GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...ALTHOUGH SEEING WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUING NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS.
WINDS BECOME SW THROUGHOUT TOWARD SAT MORN HIGHEST SRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY SAT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
THE DAY SAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS 10-15KT CONT INTO SUN. A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUN
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TUE...WITH LINGERING 6FT SEAS POSSIBLE INTO TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL


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