Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 170145
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight, then
moves off the coast Thursday. A cold front will move into the
area this weekend. This front will move south of the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Wednesday...Latest sfc analysis shows weak 1017mb
high pressure centered over SW VA, building in over the area
from the north. Latest radar imagery shows light showers over
south central NC, with mostly clear skies across Eastern NC.
Expect the overnight to remain pred dry. Areas of fog and low
stratus likely to develop again overnight and early Thu morning
with light E/SE winds and still plentiful low level moisture.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...A weak shortwave will move along the
top of the ridge tomorrow morning...leading to the ridge
slightly building during the day. Weak sfc high pressure slides
off the coast and the Piedmont trough develops inland with CAPE
values increasing to 2500-3500 J/KG with the highest over the
coastal plains. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop, mainly along the seabreeze as its the
only forcing. Expect highs in the around 90 degrees inland and
mid 80s along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...A return to more moisture and chances
for thunderstorms each day as a cold front moves into the area
this weekend.

Thursday night/Friday...Winds gradually shift back into the
south and southwest during this period. This will help to
increase moisture across the area as PWATS which had dipped
below 2", climb back above 2" once again. A weak trof south of
our area today should also lift northward during this time. This
boundary will combine with daily sea breeze boundaries to
produce scattered storms from late morning on. As the previous
forecaster mentioned MLCAPES of 2 to 3,000 j/kg support a few
isolated stronger storms and with the moist atmosphere in place,
heavy rain is likely in any storms that form. Temps will be
warm Friday afternoon with near 90 readings inland, to 80s along
the beaches.

Saturday through Sunday...Model guidance has sped up the timing
of a cold front this weekend a bit. Still thinking more
scattered showers and storms especially Saturday. With a faster
timing, the axis of more storms may shift toward the coast
Sunday versus farther inland. Temps through the weekend still
running near 90 inland to 80s along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday...Somewhat drier and warmer conditions are
still expected for early next week as an upper level ridge
builds and expands across the southeastern United States. PoPs
will be lower and slightly lower dewpoints for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 645 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions currently, but good
chances for widespread IFR/LIFR fog and stratus again overnight
and early Thu morning. Based on persistence and good agreement
between the forecast soundings and high res guidance, have
moderate to high confidence in development. Expect ceilings and
fog to lift by mid morning with pred VFR returning. Scattered
showers and storms expected Thu afternoon, with best chances at
ISO/OAJ/EWN.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions should prevail for most
of the extended period. Brief reductions to MVFR will be
possible in scattered thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, with
locally gusty winds and heavy downpours. Some early morning fog
and patchy stratus may also be possible in areas that receive
decent rainfall through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 945 PM Wednesday...Latest obs show pred NE/SE winds 5-10
kt with seas 2-3 ft. The sfc trof axis has pushed off the coast
with weak high pressure building inland resulting in light
onshore flow. Winds will veer E tonight and then SE by Thursday
afternoon. Swell energy from Hurricane Gert has been subsiding
today and expect to seas to remain 2-3 ft and becoming more like
2 ft Thu afternoon.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Good marine conditions expected
through much of the upcoming extended period, outside of any
convection. As a frontal boundary pushes back north on Friday,
winds veer around to the southwest and remain from the southwest
through the weekend. Wind speeds will be mostly 5 to 15 knots
or less with seas 2-3 feet through the period. The exception
will be for a small period Saturday afternoon/evening where the
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. In response southwest
winds may be closer to 10 to 20 kts, with seas 2 to 4 feet. By
By Monday a cold front will be south of the coastal waters. This
will shift the winds into the east to southeast with winds
remaining 10 kts or less, and seas around 2 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/CQD/BM
MARINE...EH/CQD/BM



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