Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 241333
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SOUNDINGS AND SEEN STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATELLITE PICTURES. PARTIAL SUN AND WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV...THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. TIGHT
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUIDLING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WHEN THE LOOSENING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WIND AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG










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