Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
367
FXUS62 KMHX 060001
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
MAJOR LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1031MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VA THIS EVENING. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO EASTERN NC
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY....SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WITH THE COOLEST OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO MILDEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A MEAN 500 MB UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN US. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT COULD BE QUITE STORMY ACROSS COASTAL
EASTERN NC WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE AS A MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...CARVE OUT THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
"BOMB" OUT SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEG
TILTED. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CENTRAL PRESSURES COULD DROP
INTO THE 970`S! THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST DOES
THIS SYSTEM GET AS THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE IMPACTS THAT OCCUR SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF PCPN,
AND IF ANY WINTRY PCPN OCCURS AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. THERE COULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM INLAND TO THE COAST AND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS OR WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF
HEADLINES. IF HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES, THEN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN AS MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS JUST EXPERIENCED 3-6" OF
RAIN WED AND THU. BEST THREAT FOR ANY WINTRY PCPN WOULD BE INLAND
WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.

MON AND MON NIGHT: MON COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTING AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS FRONT IS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NC.

TUE THROUGH FRI: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TUE THROUGH THU. COMPLEX
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE MID ATLC-NE COAST TUE AND WED
KEEPING EASTERN NC IN A COLD BUT MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TUE BUT THINK DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS COULD OCCUR
LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT/HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SUB VFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW PULLS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SHOW NNW/NNE WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING 7-10FT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS...AND 3-6FT SOUTH.
DROPPED SCA FOR SOUTHERN WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBS WITH SEAS
DOWN TO 3-5FT. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT. CENTRAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN SCA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUN/SUN
NIGHT AND ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT OVER THE NC WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF
THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET
COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF
HATTERAS ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
POSSIBLY MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS OF
10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ135-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BM
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.