Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270454
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1254 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north and
northeast through most of the weekend. A weak cold front will
approach form the north tonight and Saturday, then stall and
dissipate Saturday night and Sunday. A trough of low pressure will
approach from offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...Strong and persistent high pressure
surface and aloft will continue to produce tranquil weather across
Eastern NC overnight with clear skies and light winds.
Patchy/shallow light fog will be possible late inland. Min temps
will range near 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 430 PM Friday...True frontal boundary with lower dew points
will remain north of area but wind shift to north-northeast will
spread over area as stronger surface high ridges into area from
north. Atmosphere will become more unstable aloft and supportive
of possible scattered convective activity in afternoon, mainly in
localized convergence with north- northeast winds converging with
sea breeze over southern sections and kept 20-30% POPs for
afternoon. High temps 90-92 for most inland and southern sections
while OBX held in mid 80s with northeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 PM Friday...A complicated forecast continues for the long
term period due to differences on movement and extent of tropical
activity to the south. Temperatures will generally be above normal
through the long term period.

Sunday...The upper ridge that has been persistent across the
Southeast will begin to weaken Sunday as a shortwave trough pushes
across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states.
Meanwhile, the attendant cold front gradually dissipates across
the region while a weak coastal trough (possible remnants of
tropical storm Fiona) retrogrades off the Atlantic Ocean waters
toward the region. With sufficient moisture, PW`s approaching or
exceeding 2 inches, and instability, LI`s around -3 to -5C,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, potentially
bringing locally heavy rainfall. Temps expected to be a couple
degrees cooler than Sat due to increased cloud cover/precip and
should reach the mid/upr 80s area wide.

Monday through Tuesday...Complications arise early next week as
the med/long range global model suite still struggling with
potential development and movement of the tropical system to the
south. The 26/12Z ECMWF continues to show a disorganized tropical
system to the north and northeast as it becomes absorbed in the
inverted coastal trough across the southeastern seaboard. The
deterministic GFS/CMC/HWRF keep the system separate and move it
northeastward through the GOM. A look at the GFS Ensemble member
MSLP indicate large spread in solns with several members mirroring
the ECMWF soln. The former soln would bring better precip chances
with tropical moisture streaming into E NC Monday through Tuesday,
while the latter soln would bring much less rain. Due to the
continued uncertainty, will advertise no higher than 30-40 pops
(similar to the ECM ENS MOS), highest southern and eastern zones.
Max temps will be held down into the mid/upr 80s due to the cloud
cover and precip, with nighttime temps warm and muggy with lows in
the 70s.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued disagreement this period. A
long wave trough is fcst to deepen across the eastern half of the
CONUS mid to late next week and will determine eventual fate of
the tropical system. ECM is a little deeper with the trough and
shunts the system out of the area Thursday, while the GFS is
flatter with the trough and therefore much slower with tropical
system exiting the region, not to mention the ECM has the tropical
system off the east coast as the trough approaches and the GFS has
it in the northeast gulf. Ensemble spread is also very high with
respective operational models. Will continue low chance pops this
period due to the low confidence forecast this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday night/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...High confidence in VFR conditions
persisting through the TAF period outside patchy/shallow light
fog late tonight and isolated showers/thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon as high pressure continues over the area. Scattered
stratocumulus cloud deck around 4-5 kt feet is expected Saturday
afternoon. Looks like a better chance for sub VFR conditions in
fog and stratus late Saturday night in Easterly low level flow.


Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 430 PM Friday...Deep east to southeast flow sets up late
weekend into next week will bring scattered to potentially
numerous showers/storms. This may be exacerbated by tropical
moisture streaming into the area and potentially limit cigs to sub
MVFR as indicated by model soundings. Potential for fg/br each
night as low levels will be quite moist and winds light.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...Latest surface and buoy data continue to
indicate light SE/S winds 5-10 KT that will become
light/variable late tonight and Saturday morning as a weak
surface ridge along the coast dissipates. Seas overnight will
range 1-2 ft at 7-8 seconds. Stronger high pressure will build in
from the north resulting in northeast/east winds near 10 KT all
waters by Saturday afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet tonight will become
2-3 feet Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 430 PM Friday...A weak frontal boundary will dissipate
across the region Sunday while high pressure builds back in from
the north with a coastal trough retrograding into the waters
early next week. Predominant winds through early next week will
be easterly 5-15 kts as the pres gradient will remain rather
loose. Seas on the coastal waters will average 2-4 feet through
Sunday. Long period swell of 13-15 seconds forecast to impact all
coastal waters beginning Sunday night as swell energy from very
distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston starts to arrive. Seas north of
Cape Lookout forecast to build to 3-5 feet, with 2-4 feet
continuing to the south Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM/DAG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/DAG



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