Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 221432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATE
TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY SATURDAY...THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUES...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
WHICH HAVE REBOUNDED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PRECIP COVERAGE REMAINS MOSTLY OFFSHORE NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE LIFTING INTO ONSLOW BAY AND
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM HYDE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
RICHLANDS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING IN THIS AREA LIKELY
DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING GREATER INSTABILITY IN
THIS LOCATION.

EASTERN NC REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING A
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AS IS EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY AND 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 2.16 INCHES AND
MORNING SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 2-2.25 INCHES. AT
THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE
COAST WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITION INLAND AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...AROUND 15 KT OR LESS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A VERY LOW
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER... BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MBE
VELOCITY WEAK THIS MORNING...LESS THAN 10 KT...SUGGESTING HEAVY
PRECIP AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
OR LOW LYING AREAS. MBE VELOCITY INCREASES TO 15-18 KT THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE THREAT TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST TONIGHT BRINGING SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWING WINDS BECOME S/SW. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY INLAND THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AS IS A TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TREND IN THIS PATTERN.
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER AREA BETWEEN UPR RIDGE AND
UPR LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS GULF COAST. SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL
ANY TIME...THUS CONTINUED 20-40 POPS...WITH MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED
WED AFTN ACRS INLAND SECTIONS.

RIDGE BREAK DOWNS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WV TROF
AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ON THE COAST WED
NIGHT WITH PSBL CONVECTION MOVING IN OFF WATER. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR
THU AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS INLAND ASSOC WITH THE SHT
WV...APPROACHING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC
POPS ALL AREAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND SHT WV TROF
MOVING INTO AREA.

MODELS INDICATE SFC FRONT STALLS JUST S OF AREA SAT MORNING WITH
SCT CONVECTION PSBL ACRS SRN SECTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION.
FRONT LIFTS BACK N ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT LOW 20/30 POPS DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE EXTDD FCST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT THROUGH 14/15Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS ROUTES AGAIN
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE
SEVERITY OF STORMS BUT THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING AND AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AT TAF SITES THROUGH PERIOD WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THU AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/E
WINDS 5-10 KT FROM OCRACOKE NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NOTED FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT TO 41036 OFF ONSLOW BAY. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT IN A
MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL 7-8 SECONDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...THEN BECOME SWLY AROUND 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON WED
THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. PSBL SMALL CRAFT CONDS FOR SEAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AS SW WINDS
INCR TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO NLY AND
SEAS DIMINISH BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG



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