Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 252054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MS....WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SW TONIGHT....RESULTING IN A VERY QUIET NIGHT. OPTIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. TRENDED WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND...TO MID 30S/LOW 40S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA WITH A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS AROUND
8C...AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND
AND HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUN-WED PERIOD...THUS SOMEWHAT
INCREASED FCST CONFIDENCE FOR PERIOD OVERALL.

RIDING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

MODELS NOW AGREEING THAT WAA AND MSTR INFLUX WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS APPROACHING UPR TROF WEAKENS UPR RIDGE OVER SE US. SHRT
WV WILL BE DAMPENED OUT AS FLOW BECOMES ALMOST ZONAL BETWEEN UPR LOW
TO N AND RIDGE TO S...THUS RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK SFC WAVES MOVING
ALONG SFC FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NC LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SUN-MON BUT KEPT AT HIGH CHC FOR TIME BEING.
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SW HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WITH INITIAL
WAA...THEN HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE OVER NW HALF SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...SHIFTING TO ALONG COAST MON AND MON NIGHT.

LATEST MODELS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL PUSH OFF COAST BY
EARLY TUE AND STALL FAR ENOUGH TO E AND S THAT PCPN THREAT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT FRI NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD...TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND
SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. SOME ARCTIC AIR WILL BE TAPPED AGAIN
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUD-FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTY UP TO 15 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A VERY
DRY AIRMASS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS RAIN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-15KT...AND SEAS
2-4FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 4-7FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET FOR LINGERING 6-7FT SEAS...EXTENDED A FEW HOURS
INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH. VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
FRI...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND SEAS 2-3FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS AREA MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE BUT STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMINIG OF WEAK SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG FRONT...THUS
FCST CONFIDENCE STILL BELOW NORMAL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY AND SW 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO N-NE MON NIGHT AND
TUE. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BUILDING TO
3-4 FT OVER WEEKEND...PEAKING AT 4-5 FT NRN WATERS WITH STRONGER
N-NE WINDS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CQD/JBM





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