Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220355
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1055 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front will move through on Saturday. High
pressure will build in Sunday and Monday then slide offshore
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...adjusted temps as needed. Coastal trough
has moved over HSE with wind around to SE and temp up to 61. NAM
initialized well with this and indicates trough will continue to
move inland overnight. High clouds will persist all night with
some SCU development as well.

/Previous discussion/
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Upr rdg will slide E as weak nrn stream
short wave approaches. Fcst soundings show plenty of high lvl
moisture cont overnight and may also see some scu develop as
well with onshore flow. shld still a few periods of PC to MCLR
skies and this will allow temps to drop into mid/upr 40s inland
with upr 40s/around 50 cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Weak short wave will cross region late
Wed. Model trends cont to show moisture diminishing E of mtns
and expect little if any measurable rainfall across the region.
Will cont prev fcst of slight pops cstl plain where have best
chc to see some rain. Will cont to have good deal of clouds
over region however low lvl thicknesses are higher tomm and
combined with light SE to S winds shld see very mild highs in
the low to poss a few mid 70s inland with 60s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 pm Tue...Models remain in rather good agreement for
the region through the long term, and made very little change to
current forecast. Pattern will be dry and warm through the end
of the week. Surface/upper low passing across south Florida
Wednesday night into Thursday will keep deeper moisture confined
to the south so no precip forecast. A fast-moving cold front
will move through Saturday. Models continue to show deeper
moisture lifting north of the area during the day. Kept low
chance PoPs across the north and along the Outer Banks, with
slight chance elsewhere. High temps Wednesday through Saturday
will slowly warm, going from lower/mid 70s Wednesday to
mid/upper 70s Saturday. Dry weather forecast Saturday night
through Tuesday as high pressure passes through from the west.
Cooler temps in store for Sunday, in the mid/upper 50s. After
winds become southerly once again early next weeks, temps will
rise into the lower/mid 60s Monday and mid 60s/lower 70s
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail most
of TAF period but some MVFR VSBYs in light fog likely late
tonight into early Thursday. High cirrus clouds will continue
to be fairly widespread during period but some SCU will develop
with low level flow becoming SE. E-NE winds tonight will become
SE Wednesday but speeds below 10 KT.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 215 pm Tue...VFR/dry through Friday, with isolated
showers Friday night into Saturday, and even an isolated
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as a cold front passes through.
Surface winds will be from the southeast around 5 knots
Thursday, southeast 10-15 knots Friday, southwest 10-15 knots
Saturday and northwest 10-15 knots Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wed/...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...minor changes with update with coastal
trough moving on to southern OBX and progressing W-NW overnight.

/Previous discussion/
As of 215 PM Tuesday...Light winds expected thru the period as
high pres to the N slides offshore. Speeds shld remain less than
15 kts as winds veer to SE tonight then S Wed. Still have
lingering swell outer central wtrs where seas still between 5
and 6 feet at DSLN7 buoy. These seas shld cont to grad come down
and think tonight and tomm seas will be mainly 2 to 3 feet with
some 4 footers outer waters.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 215 pm Tue...Light winds and seas forecast through
Thursday night, as high pressure off the coast continues moving
east. Winds will be generally 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet.
Winds and seas will increase Friday into Friday night as a fast-
moving cold front approaches from the west, moving through the
marine area Saturday. Small craft seas will develop Friday and
continue into Saturday. Winds however, are forecast no higher
than 15-20 knots. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA/SGK
MARINE...RF/JBM/HSA



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