Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 211133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


21/12Z issuance...VFR conditions will generally prevail for the
next 24 hours except for MVFR conditions in patchy fog early this
morning and then again late tonight. Brief MVFR/IFR possible in
some isolated locations this afternoon as isolated showers and
thunderstorms develop, ending shortly after sunset. Light winds
continue through the period. 12/DS


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Upper level trof axis
is generally expected to be east of our forecast area today and
tonight, with tail end extending down toward our coastal counties.
To the north and west, upper level ridging will be building. This
pattern will likely limit any convection to the southern coastal
and counties of the forecast area today. Water vapor imagery
suggests drier low/mid levels, and models indicate that PWAT`s are
expected to be slightly lower today, mainly in the 1.4 to 1.6
inch range, with the higher- deeper moisture near the coast as
well, again indicating that the greatest potential for convection
will be the southern and coastal counties. So will go with chance
PoP`s near the coast today with only a slight chance PoP over
interior counties. Any lingering convection late today will end
shortly after sunset with no pcpn expected tonight. There could be
some patchy light fog tonight, however, especially for areas that
receive the rainfall today. Warm again today with highs in the
lower 90s over most of the interior, and upper 80s along and near
the coast. Lows tonight expected to range from the lower 70s over
most inland areas to the mid 70s at the coast. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A developing mid to
upper low over the mid Atlantic region forming on the sw side of
tropical storm Jose is still progged to shift sw through the
weekend becoming centered over the north central gulf states and
forecast area by 12z Sun. To the east Hurricane Maria will
continue to track north off the Fl east coast allowing better mid
to upper moisture to advect west across the northern gulf states
and forecast area through early Sun. With this pattern expect high
chance pops across the forecast area Fri and Sat. This precip
will continue to be mostly diurnally driven through the near term
pd resulting in better rain chances near the coast and offshore
during the overnight and morning hours, shifting inland during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day. Model soundings
continue to show marginal instability through the period combined
with pwats generally ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches suggesting
most of the showers and thunderstorms will be short lived with
gusty straight line winds, mostly below 30 mph, occasional
lightning and short periods of heavy rain being the main concern
with the stronger storms. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in
the near term or through the early Sun with better clouds forming
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Similar to the
last few days some low stratus and patchy fog, occurring mostly
during the early morning hours, will also be possible each day.
High temps on Fri will be a tad above seasonal averages ranging
from upper 80s to near 90 inland and the middle 80s along the
immediate coast. Low temps Fri night will range from the upper 60s
for most inland areas and the lower 70s along the immediate
coast. For Sat highs will be a tad cooler or near seasonal
averages ranging from the mid to upper 80s inland and the mid 80s
along the immediate coast. Lows Sat night will be a tad cooler
than the last previous nights ranging from the middle to upper 60s
for most inland areas and the lower 70s along the immediate

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...For Sun through mid week
the upper low over the north central gulf coast region will
begin to fill and weaken becoming mostly a broad mid to upper
inverted trof stretching from the western gulf to the Tn river
valley through mid week. Slightly higher rain chances are
expected Sun and Mon with the best coverage occurring over western
and coastal areas of the forecast area each day. For Tue and Wed
rain chances are lower with little to no measurable rain expected
each night and during the day on Wed. High temps each day will
range from the upper 80s to near 90 inland and the middle 80s
along the immediate coast. Lows each night will range from the
mid to upper 60s inland and the lower 70s along the immediate
coast. 32/ee

MARINE...High pressure centered over the marine area this
morning will break down today, but a general ridge axis will
continue to extend into the marine area from the northeast through
the remainder of the forecast period. Light west to northwest winds
over the marine area early this morning will gradually shift to the
northeast by late morning and then become more east to southeasterly
by late this afternoon. Thereafter, a light to ocnly moderate
primarily easterly flow will persist through the remainder of the
forecast period, with a slight offshore component during the late
night and early morning hours and a slight onshore component during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Seas initially around 1-2
feet offshore with smooth conditions on protected waters, increasing
to 2-3 feet offshore with a light chop on protected waters by
Saturday, then remaining relatively unchanged through Monday night.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible over the marine
area through the period. 12/DS




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