Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
806 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...A few minor changes made to tonight`s forecast package.
Lowered hourly dewpoints and temperatures a couple of degrees to
account for current trends. This cooler trend resulted in the
lowering of the expected overnight low temperatures at most sites
by one to three degrees. Some patchy cloud
expected to continue advecting across the region along the northwesterly
flow aloft. Patchy fog remains a possibility over the Western
Florida Panhandle and portions of South Alabama...generally east
of the I-65 corridor. Any fog development should remain light and
dissipate rapidly following sunrise. /08


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period. Light
and variable winds tonight become more westerly Saturday. /49

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...As shortwave energy at the
base of an upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, more
energy dives southeast over the Plains to the Lower Miss River
Valley and Southeast. A surface ridge stretching sw to ne over the
Southeast remains intact through tonight, but begins to see the
effects of a weak reinforcing front moving southeast across the
Lower Miss River Valley Saturday with the approaching energy. With
the weak nature of the front, am not expecting much in the way of
precip Saturday as the front moves south across the area Saturday
into Saturday night. Moisture levels do increase a bit overnight
into Saturday, mainly over eastern portions of the forecast area, as
a weak onshore flow sets up overnight tonight. The moisture increase
is enough to warrant a bit of fog wording over the eastern half of
the forecast area, especially with clear skies bringing good
overnight radiational cooling. Western portions see a moisture
increase, but not as much as eastern parts, leading again to a west
to east gradient of overnight temps. Lows again below seasonal, with
western portions seeing the greatest. Lows tonight ranging from mid
30s west to mid 40s east, upper 40s along the coast.

Saturday, with most of the day seeing good heating, temps rise to
around to above seasonal levels. Highs ranging from mid 60s north to
around 70 south, with a few patches of low 70s.

With land areas mostly rain free, guidance is hinting at a weak
surface trough forming and bringing a few rainshowers well south of
the coast. Instability is expected to limited, so am not expecting
any tsra to affect any boaters out south of the coast. /16

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...The quick
moving shortwave will move south and east of the area Saturday
night as it rounds the base of a longwave trough over the eastern
half of the country. Its attendant cold front will push through
Saturday evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cool and dry
weather into the area through Monday as surface high pressure
builds in from the north. Highs will be near average in the mid to
upper 60s Sunday and Monday with lows still below normal in the
low to mid 40s Saturday night and down into the mid 30s to low 40s
Sunday night. 34/JFB

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A moderating trend commences
on Tuesday and will last through at least Thursday as shortwave
ridging builds in from the west in the wake of the departing
trough. Guidance has been struggling with the timing, location,
and strength of shortwave energy moving out of the east Pacific
and into the lower 48 and this continues to be the case,
especially for late next week. At the moment, there appears to be
a better consensus developing that a shortwave on Wednesday will
remain far north and west of the area, moving into the Midwest.
Therefore, return flow will be weak across our area, which will
allow a very dry airmass to persist and negate rain chances.

Significant uncertainty exists for Thursday/Friday in association
with the next piece of energy to move out of the west coast. No
clear signal how progressive this shortwave will be, so will only
advertise a slight chance of showers for this time frame and
temps a little above normal Thursday and closer to normal on
Friday, in line with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. 34/JFB

MARINE...Surface high pressure and light winds over area coastal
waters will be replaced by light to at times moderate northerly flow
as a re-enforcing front moves over the area Saturday night. Offshore
flow following the front will transition quickly to easterly into
Monday, then southeast as surface high pressure passes quickly east
over the Southeast. /16




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