Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 211316 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.


.MARINE...Did a quick update to the current marine forecast
mainly to reflect the offshore flow that developed in the wake of
the first round of rain. An moderate onshore flow is expected for
all areas later today. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

UPDATE...Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to include fog for the overnight and early morning hours tonight
and on wed. Fog may become dense at times by early wed morning.

MARINE...Did a quick update to the current marine forecast mainly
to include fog for the overnight and early morning hours tonight
and on wed. Fog may become dense at times by early wed morning.

12Z issuance...MVFR cigs and visibilities through 22.03z followed
by IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through 22.12z. Winds will
be mostly south at 5 to 15 knots through early this evening
shifting northwest to north at 5 to 10 knots through 22.12z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Broad upper low near the
TX/LA border early this morning is progged to shift east then
southeast across lower MS...extreme sw AL and the adjacent gulf
waters of AL and through NWFL. At the surface a broad area of low
pressure was located mostly over Arkansas this morning is progged
to shift southeast and deepen slightly over much of MS and lower
AL through this evening. Ahead of the upper system bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms were located over lower parts
of LA and MS moving into lower AL early this morning progged to
shift further east across remaining locations of the forecast area
through this evening. Latest model soundings continue to show
weak surface based instability and shear in the lowest 3 km out
ahead of this system suggesting the threat for severe weather
remains low to nil...though with strong mid level forcing noted
with this system gusty winds up to 30 knots have been noted
especially where the heavier convection is noted. Latest radar
loops continue to show more bands of precip forming to the west
forecasted to move across the region through this afternoon and
possibly into the early evening hours. Rainfall totals from 1 to 3
inches locally will be possible today possibly leading to some
localized nuisance flooding where drainage is poor.

As for temps will stay close to the warmer MOS guidance through
tonight resulting in high temps in the upper 60s to near 70 for
most areas and lows in the lower to middle 50s inland and the
upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Anomalous mid/upper
level low pressure area (and associated surface reflection) will
drift southeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and
Wednesday night reaching south Florida by 12Z Thursday. Low/mid
level wrap-around moisture and dynamics aloft will result in some
lingering light precipitation possible during the day on
Wednesday, ending by Wednesday evening as upper ridging builds
over our area. The upper low will move east into the northern
Bahamas Thursday night with ridging continuing locally. Highs
Wednesday in the low to mid 70s, and in the mid to upper 70s
on Thursday. Lows both Wednesday and Thursday nights in the
low/mid 50s northwest interior to near 60 southeast and coastal.

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A weak frontal boundary will
be approaching the forecast area from the northwest on Friday and
move across the region Friday night, bringing a slight chance for
showers on Friday night. After this brief period for isolated
showers, high pressure builds and moves east across the region
Saturday through Monday of next week with no precipitation
expected. Continues quite warm on Friday with highs mid 70s to
lower 80s. Lows Friday night in the 50s as the front moves
through, then cooler over the weekend and into the early part of
next week in the wake of the front with highs in the 60s Saturday
and Sunday and in the lower 70s by Monday. Saturday night will be
the coldest night in the long term period, with lows in the upper
30s over interior counties and in the low to mid 40s coastal
counties and along the coast. Sunday night expected to be slightly
warmer with lows in the lower 40s interior and low/mid 50s
coastal. 12/DS&&

MARINE...Bands of heavy showers with a few isolated thunderstorms
will move eastward across the marine area through this evening. Wind
gusts to 30 knots will be possible with some of the heavier
convection. A deep area of low pressure will move east then
southeast across the north central and eastern Gulf through early
wed leading to more showers and isolated thunderstorms through
this evening. Away from the convection winds will be south to
southwest at 13 to 18 knots shifting north late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. High pressure will build across the region
through the week leading to a moderate offshore flow through early
Friday then building late Friday into Saturday as a reinforcing
cold front moves across much of the northern Gulf.




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