Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-65 TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE WEST OF I-65 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF I-65. THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD THEN BE RAIN-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 88 TO 93 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT LATE IN THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LEAVE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE FOR NOW. /13

&&

.AVIATION [22.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL IMPACT
AREA TAF SITES WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FROM 18Z TO
21Z...AND FROM 21Z TO 24Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  90  77 /  20  20  20  40  20
DESTIN      76  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  68  91  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CAMDEN      69  92  70  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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