Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 272048
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH
PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  30
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  40
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  50
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  87  70 /  00  05  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  40
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  50
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/16


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