Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
355 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Forecast area will remain on
the western periphery of ridging (both surface and aloft) through
tonight. Deep south to southwest flow will continue to bring ample
low to mid level moisture into the region...with precipitable water
values in the 1.75 to 2.10 inch range. Water vapor imagery does
currently indicate some slightly drier air aloft that may mix down a
little today...but still an overall moist airmass in place over the
region. A weak upper trof just to the west and northwest of the
forecast area (near the Mississippi River basin) will remain in that
same general location while weakening even further thru tonight. Weak
shortwave lifts northeast to the east of the trof axis today...but
the ridging previous noted keeps most of this energy to the northwest
of the forecast area. The combination of all the factors mentioned
above will result in a similar convective pattern today as we saw
yesterday...with isolated to scattered showers and storms across the
region this afternoon...primarily over the western half of the
forecast area. By mid evening...convection is expected to dissipate.
Max temps will overall be slightly warmer than the past several
days...with low to mid 90s expected over most of the interior with
lower 90s closer to the coast (upper 80s at the beaches). Lows
tonight in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast.

.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...The forecast area will
remain in a weakness between two upper level ridges through the
short term period, one centered across the four corners region of
the desert southwest and another across the southwest Atlantic
Ocean. The relative weakness across the region will vary only
slightly in strength and position, leading to continued moist
southerly flow at the surface. Precipitable water values will hover
between 1.75 and 2 inches through Saturday night, leading to
diurnally driven convective chances with coverage mostly tied to the
formation and inland advancement of the sea breeze each afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the low 90s with slightly lower
values expected near the coast. Continued moist southerly flow will
lead to area heat indicies ranging from 100-104 each afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures will be seasonally mild with low to mid
70s expected inland and mid to upper 70s expected at the coast.

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Differences between the
global models begin to become evident in this time range with the
GFS advertising a generally wetter solution while the ECMWF shows a
stronger ridge across the central part of the CONUS. Continued
southerly flow at the surface will maintain a robust low level
moisture feed into the area. Precipitable water values will remain
in the 2 inch ballpark with scattered convection expected to develop
each afternoon, focused on the inland advancing sea breeze and along
any outflow from previous convection. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 90s each afternoon with slightly depressed values
near the coast. Heat indices will generally be in the 100-105 range.
Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s inland to near 80 along the
immediate coast. 05/RR


.MARINE...High pressure will continue to ridge west across the
northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. A generally
light south to southwest flow is expected to prevail...with a slight
west to northwest component possible near the coast late night and
early morning. Seas are expected to be 2 feet or less through the
weekend. Winds and seas locally higher near isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. 12/DS


Mobile      92  75  92  76 /  20  20  40  20
Pensacola   92  78  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
Destin      91  80  90  80 /  10  10  30  20
Evergreen   94  73  94  74 /  20  10  40  20
Waynesboro  93  73  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
Camden      94  74  94  74 /  20  20  40  30
Crestview   95  74  94  74 /  20  10  30  20


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