Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 292057
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
357 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY A MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. EASTERN AREAS HAVE HAD LESS COVERAGE DUE
TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND THE
SEABREEZE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A BOARD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 CLOSER TO INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
AND LOW 90S ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. /13

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A WET...SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERLYING THE AREA WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THREAT OF CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
THE MAIN THREAT ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MS - SOUTHWEST AL...DEFINING TOO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE POOL OVERLYING THE REGION...EXTRA LIFT AIDED BY SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION COULD LEAD TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIAL IN
AN OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE LIGHT SHEER ENVIRONMENT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE H5 LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF AND BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD...THIS DRIFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE POOL TO EXPAND
FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...TAKING ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH IT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH VCTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. /13

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEABREEZE AND NEAR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  68  85  68 /  20  20  10  40  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  70  86  70 /  10  20  10  20  20
DESTIN      74  85  75  82  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   67  90  67  89  68 /  20  20  20  30  40
WAYNESBORO  67  86  66  86  66 /  20  40  30  50  60
CAMDEN      67  87  66  89  68 /  20  20  30  40  60
CRESTVIEW   65  91  68  88  69 /  10  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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