Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 072044
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
244 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers brought around a quarter of an inch of rain
to portions of northwest Montana this morning. The current
pressure analysis reveals a 1,020 millibar high pressure system
centered over Cutbank, MT. This has brought a northerly wind to
much of western Montana with gusts to 30 mph being reported across
portions of the Mission and Missoula Valleys. Also these northerly
winds have brought more smoke to western Montana. Smoke is
expected to linger for the next several days as wildfires in
British Columbia and Washington continue.

An upper level wave, as seen by the darkened area on water vapor
imagery, will continue to track southward into western Montana
through this evening. Those areas that warm up and recover from
the cooler morning conditions will be able to see more shower and
thunderstorm development this evening. High resolution models
have hinted that some of these showers may coalesce into a frontal
boundary that tracks southward early this evening. This could
bring strong gusty winds to Flathead Lake and also to portions of
Sanders and Mineral Counties. Confidence is average to poor as
these models have not been very consistent from run to run. Expect
showers and thunderstorm activity to wane after midnight.

Easterly breezes will continue on Wednesday while northwest
Montana and portions of north-central Idaho will warm back up with
drier conditions. The best chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms will be across Clearwater and Lemhi Counties in
Idaho and across southern Ravalli County to Silver Bow County in
Montana.

Thursday, another round of thunderstorms associated with the
southwest monsoon will stay mainly over central Idaho and
southwest Montana.

By Friday, a slow moving low pressure system off the California
coast will interact with deep monsoon moisture from the
southwestern U.S., causing a surge of moisture into the northern
Rockies. Through the weekend, the low pressure system will get
absorbed into a much stronger, deeper trough off the west coast.
The interactions of these systems with the monsoon moisture will
cause very wet thunderstorms over much of central Idaho and
western Montana through early next week. The timing and location
of the heaviest rain each day remains uncertain, though models
agree well that all the needed ingredients will be in place over
the weekend. The most likely places to be the hardest hit by rain
include central Idaho and Montana along and south of
Interstate-90.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at
all area terminals this afternoon. Expect intermittent reductions
in visibility in areas of heaviest thundershowers. Small hail is
possible with a few of the thunderstorms especially across
southwest Montana. Shower activity will diminish by later tonight.
Breezy north to east winds will continue through Wednesday as
Canadian high pressure lingers across central Montana. Some
terminals, especially KMSO and KGPI, will be affected by smoke
from regional wildfires.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Flathead/Glacier
     Park...Kootenai.

ID...None.
&&

$$


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