Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 270935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Showers continue across the Northern Rockies early this morning
as a shortwave tracks through the region. The strong thunderstorm
activity from Monday night has generally subsided, with the
exception of a cluster of thunderstorms thriving in central
Idaho/Lemhi County. These storms are producing frequent lightning,
brief bursts of heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.

Cooler weather is anticipated in the wake of these showers, and
temperatures will be 10-20 degrees cooler today than they were on
Monday. In addition, breezy west-northwesterly winds will be
likely throughout the afternoon and evening under this flow. The
focus of shower and thunderstorm activity will remain in Central
Idaho and southwestern Montana, becoming stronger this
afternoon/evening as instability increases throughout the day.
This boundary will allow active weather over this area through at
least Wednesday.

Breezy winds and seasonable temperatures are anticipated as the
upper level flow becomes northwesterly by Wednesday, and scattered
showers will increase across western Montana (particularly along
the Continental Divide). This northwest flow pattern will persist
into the early part of the weekend with the potential for showers
each day in northwest Montana.

A warming and drier trend is forecast to return under a weak ridge
throughout the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.


.AVIATION...Shower activity will continue across the Northern
Rockies through the morning hours. Periodic thunderstorms are
likely for KSMN throughout this morning, and then likely this
afternoon for both KSMN and KBTM after 27/2000Z as more
thunderstorms develop across central Idaho and southwest Montana.
The main threats with these storms will be bursts of heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong erratic winds.
Thunderstorm activity will shift southeastward after 28/0300Z
resulting in less of a threat.

Lastly, gusty west-northwest winds of 20-30 kts are also expected
this afternoon and evening across the Northern Rockies.



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