Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 302152
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
252 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. COASTAL STRATUS
RETURNS TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:46 AM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE BREEZES AND
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE READINGS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
THE 70S ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW INLAND AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO 6.9 MB
FROM ACV TO SFO...WITH 5.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SKIES STRATUS FREE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

THE 18Z NAM IS STILL INDICATES A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS ON SUNDAY
REACHING SANTA CRUZ BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AFFECT
SOME COASTAL TEMPS TOMORROW...BUT COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

A LATE-SPRING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING COOL
TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 20 TO 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH 10 T 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 AM PDT SATURDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LEADING TO
IMPROVE SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 12:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...TODAY`S MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE GENERATED MODERATE SIZE LOCAL WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENTS AND
LARGE SHORE BREAK. BEACH OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY LOCAL LIFEGUARDS
INDICATE THAT THESE HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT AREA
BEACHES.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


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