Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 282140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
240 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A COOLING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PDT SATURDAY... VISIBLE SATIMG SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CALIFORNIA WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
PRESENT OVER THE AREA. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT SLID ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLIER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS RIDGE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT THAT HELPED CLEAR
STRATUS FROM THE COAST IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...
DROPPING FROM -6.7MB TO -5.8MB... BUT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MUCH WARMER TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST... WHERE THE LACK OF
CLOUDS (RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY) IS NOT INHIBITING MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. KSFO IS 11 DEGREES WARMER AS OF 2PM TODAY THAN 2PM
YESTERDAY (73 VS 62F) AND IS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY LOCATIONS SHOWING COOLING TRENDS ARE THOSE THAT
WERE DIRECTLY THE RIDGE THE LAST FEW DAYS... IE SOUTHERN SAN
BENITO COUNTY. WEAK RIDGING REBUILDS INTO TOMORROW SD TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FORECAST FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. COOL
IS A RELATIVE TERM HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT... 2015 HAS
BEEN THE WARMEST WINTER ON RECORD FOR CALIFORNIA (AS OF THE END OF
FEBRUARY... AND MARCH IS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST AS WELL). THE
COOLING WILL COME AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH IN OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPING INTO NORCAL AND SPREADING PRECIPITATION THROUGH OUR AREA
AROUND APRIL 5-6. THE EURO IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS SCENARIO...
HOWEVER THE EURO HAS OVERANALYZED THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FOR MOST OF THE
WINTER/SPRING SO FAR... SO LEANING MORE ON GFS FOR GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:02 AM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GUSTY NW WINDS
POSSIBLE AT KSFO WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28 KT
POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS TIME EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REASSESS
FOG CHANCES WITH 00Z PACKAGE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:12 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL. A
MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

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