Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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981
FXUS66 KMTR 251146
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
446 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A building ridge of high pressure will lead to a gradual
warming and drying trend for the remainder of the week and into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Wednesday...Not much to talk about
this morning as showers have come to an end across our as a weak
upper level low continues to progress to the southeast of our
region overnight. The low and associated longwave trof will
advance to the east over the next several days as a ridge of high
pressure builds back into our region. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend with most spots near or even a bit warmer than
normal by the upcoming weekend. Big question is how much of the
warming will make it all of the way to the coast. Various guidance
keeps spots at the coast mostly in the 60s to lower 70s. Only
sticking point is a very slight chance for a shower this afternoon
over the North Bay Mountains as daytime heating combined with
some minor instability. Could also be a little coastal drizzle
tonight.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal readings as the
ridge strengthens and expands. Right now next week which includes
the Memorial Day Holiday looks warmer than normal with dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:19 PM PDT Tuesday...Upper low to the south of
the region this morning will bring widespread MVFR into the mid to
late morning. Patchy coastal drizzle will also be possible.
Onshore winds up to 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 kt
possible after 21Z along the coast. Intermittent SCT/BKN decks may
linger through most of the day as energy and moisture rotate
around trough to the south. MVFR/IFR cigs return this evening.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR into the late morning, lingering as late
as 20Z. Onshore winds increase after 20Z. Chance of early return
of MVFR cigs by 02Z THU. Onshore winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through the late morning/early
afternoon with brief clear possible through midday followed by an
early return of MVFR cigs. Onshore winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:52 AM PDT Wednesday...High pressure will
strengthen over the coastal waters and lead to building
northwesterly winds and seas into the weekend. Winds will be
strongest in the outer waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous
conditions from fresh squared seas will exist as northwest seas
build to match the period today and tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...Fun climate facts -- downtown San Francisco has picked
up nearly 23" since October 1st which is 99% of average. We are
currently just 0.12" drier than normal. This is the most rainfall
in San Francisco for the same period since 2010-2011. It is also
nearly double the amount recorded October 1st, 2013, to May 25th,
2014.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM
             SCA...SF Bay from 12 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: Bell


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