Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING MONSOON
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MONTEREY
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN MARIN COUNTY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER INDICATES A
MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FEET...AND FOG IS EXTENDING FROM
THE MONTEREY BAY INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH 7.4 MB FROM
WMC TO SFO...BUT CONTAIN AN ONSHORE ELEMENT AS WELL WITH THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT AT 2.1 MB. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...THUS ANOTHER WARM/HOT
DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...WITH 70S AT THE COAST TO THE
90S TO 105 WELL INLAND. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE SANTA
CRUZ. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SURGE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
COAST...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LINGERING FOG MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND ENDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
INCREASE FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL BE WARM...HOWEVER ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SURGE
UNDERWAY WITH LIFR IMPACTS CONFINED TO MAINLY MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CLOUDS FOR KSFO OR KOAK THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
MONTEREY BAY AND POSSIBLY INTO KSTS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TRICKY FORECAST AS LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THIS MORNING FOR KMRY GIVEN
SOUTH/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. KSNS IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING LIFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED.

SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
 MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
 SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
 SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
 SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
 KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN


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