Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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855
FXUS66 KMTR 061205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:29 AM PST SATURDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM
IS MONITORING A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CONCERNING AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW
CIGS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:51 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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