Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 130012
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
612 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO SW THROUGH THE MO
BOOTHEEL. THIS FEATURE WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. OTW...COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLATEAU BUT NO ACCUM IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE 25
TO 32 DEGREE RANGE. INCREASING CLOUDS AND COLD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO 15 TO 20.

ON SUNDAY...THE WEATHER GETS INTERESTING. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF SFC LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY MONDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EAST...MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...WHERE
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXTURE. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
PLATEAU BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

I LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE AND
TRANSITION. BELOW FREEZING SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE A REAL CONCERN
WITH THIS EVENT AS JET DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE SO AS TO OFFSET
THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE THREAT.

SIMILAR TO ONE YEAR AGO...THE MODELS MAY BE SCOURING OUT THE SFC SUB
FREEZING LAYER TOO SOON. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL
DYNAMICS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW...WILL BE IN FULL
SWING. THIS COULD SPELL ANOTHER ICE STORM FOR OUR PLATEAU. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

MOVING ON...A LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AGAIN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES ARE LOOKING SEASONAL INITIALLY.
THEN...WEAK UPPER RIDGING RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPS SURGE
TO LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BR FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR AT NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MVFR
AT CROSSVILLE DUE TO CEILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 1036 MBAR HIGH
SETS UP OVER THE MID WEST. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................08


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