Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 170829
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR...THE 00Z
OHX SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION NOW IN
PLACE OVER MIDDLE TN.  SOME MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THAT
INVERSION...AND WITH CALM SURFACE WINDS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...WE ARE SEEING THE TYPICAL RESULTS.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-STATE.  THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE
RELEGATED TO AREAS AROUND LAKES AND RIVERS...AS WELL AS THE PLATEAU.
SOME OF IT MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
ATTM...I DON`T ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT
WE`LL MONITOR IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONCE WE WARM UP ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION LATER THIS MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND SUNSHINE WILL BECOME ABUNDANT.  THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES EACH DAY AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. ATTM...I AM STILL RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MEX
VALUES BASED ON SUGGESTED THICKNESS VALUES. THIS MEANS THAT
SATURDAY`S TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN STARTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER
PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS HAS DECIDED TO GO THE WAY OF THE EURO REGARDING SUNDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS MEANS A DIFFUSE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH NOW...THERE
IS NO REASON TO TALK ABOUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

STILL OF NOTE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ADVECTION OF MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING
THIS AIR AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES...
WHICH COULD BE AS MUCH AS 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UNCERTAINTIES...PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL/LOCALLY DENSE. MOST CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MID STATE...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
NOT DEVELOPING AS RAPIDLY AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT IFR FOG
NOTED JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP CSV. WITH SLIGHTEST MODEL
DIFFERENCES NOTED CSV ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED VFR FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION/LOCALLY
DENSE...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH LIFR CEILINGS
17/08Z-17/14Z. WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES PERSISTING BUT WITH AND
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SCT CU TO SCT/BKN CI
17/18Z- 18/01Z...WITH THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING WITH IT THE
POTENTIAL OF SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI CKV/BNA 18/01Z-18/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      77  56  78  56 /  05  05  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    75  54  77  54 /  10  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     74  53  75  54 /  05  05  05   0
COLUMBIA       77  53  77  56 /  05  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   78  54  78  58 /  10  10  10   0
WAVERLY        75  55  77  55 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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