Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 171658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1058 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017




Low cloud deck is creeping into the northeast zones early this
morning, otherwise skies are mostly clear for now. Some high
clouds will begin to move in from the northwest during the morning
and afternoon ahead of the front for Saturday. Surface pressure
gradient will begin to tighten today as well, which will bring
southerly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to around 20 mph. With
drier air still in place before moisture moves in with southerly
winds, temps may climb a bit higher with diurnal help and
additional mixing from stronger winds. Raised high temps slightly today
into the mid 60s for most of the area, but may be stalled a bit
if the high clouds stream in a bit sooner.

Winds will begin to ramp up overnight and look to be around wind
advisory criteria during the day Saturday. Winds of 15-25 mph and
gusts to 40 mph will be possible for most of the area, especially
near the I-65 corridor. Timing has not changed too much in regards
to showers and thunderstorms Saturday besides maybe some light
showers moving in a bit sooner Saturday morning. Otherwise, timing
still looks to be during the afternoon hours for best chances at
showers and thunderstorms. Models still are lacking a bit on
instability, but some diurnal help and frontal timing may help
storm development during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is still
very strong and has not wavered much over model runs. Stronger
storms may develop during the afternoon with the primary threat
being damaging wind gusts. The cold front moves through the mid
state pretty quickly, so by 00Z Sunday, thunderstorm chances will
decrease rapidly and precip will mainly be confined to the
Plateau. Lingering showers may be around the I-65 corridor and
east as well. Northwest winds will move in behind the front, and
look to be just as strong as the southerly winds around 15-25 mph
and gusts to 40 mph early in the evening. As the front moves
further east, the surface pressure gradient will relax, so later
in the evening on Saturday winds will calm down a bit.

Per model soundings, it looks like cloud cover may hold on a bit
longer for eastern zones on Sunday, especially on the Plateau.
Kept in mostly cloudy skies for most of the day Sunday in eastern
areas to reflect this. Otherwise expecting partly cloudy skies for
the rest of the mid state on Sunday.

Models are continuing the dry trend next week with northwest
flow/ridging to start off the work week. A broad and weak trough
will cross the area Tuesday, but looks to be quite dry. Next shot
at precip may be on Friday on the Plateau, but this was only shown
on the ECMWF and has not been consistent run to run. Between the
models, there are not very many similarities after Thanksgiving,
but next weekend may bring some rain chances to the area with
another strong Midwest trough diving southeastward. Otherwise,
looking for a dry week next week with highs generally in the mid
50s and lows in the 30s.



BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Earlier dense fog and low stratus have FINALLY
dissipated across Middle Tennessee, with skies now clearing out
and temperatures on the cusp of soaring into the 60`s by the
afternoon. A surface ridge is moving across the mid state as of
this writing, with significant return flow setting up during the
next few hours. Winds will increase dramatically later this
afternoon and overnight as a strong cold front approaches the mid
state. Most of tomorrow`s expected storms will occur after 18Z,
although a few showers may develop ahead of the actual front, so
we`ll include VCSH in the TAF`s prior to 18Z.





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