Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 280821
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN MCV LEFTOVER FROM YESTERDAYS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER COFFEE COUNTY. SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY BEGUN INCREASING AROUND THE MCV CIRCULATION...SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONES. MOST 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE MCV THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHILE
KEEPING FAR NORTHWEST ZONES GENERALLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH THIS
REASONING IN GRIDS AND ZONES...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST. AS WAS
SEEN THE PAST TWO DAYS...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER TODAY...BUT SHOULD RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
ACROSS THE MID STATE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT NEARS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS FEATURE
WOULD ACT TO KEEP US IN A WARM WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EVERY DAY IN THIS SUMMER-LIKE
AIRMASS...WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  66  84  67 /  60  20  50  20
CLARKSVILLE    83  66  84  67 /  30  20  40  30
CROSSVILLE     78  63  80  64 /  60  30  50  20
COLUMBIA       83  65  84  66 /  60  30  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   82  66  83  66 /  60  30  50  30
WAVERLY        83  66  84  67 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




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