Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 040815
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT FOLLOWING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THANKS TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. A WEAKER BUT SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY POP
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING CHANCES FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU. CHANCES APPEAR WEAKER
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WANTED TO LEAVE MENTION IN THE
GRIDS JUST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO
SHOWN UP A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND
LEFT IN MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT
CARRIES THE FOG UNTIL AROUND 12Z.

THE REGION LOOKS TO GET STUCK IN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU. BY SUNDAY...CHANCES
FOR PRECIP LOOK TO EXTEND FURTHER WEST AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW END...WITH
SCHC MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 AND CHC EAST. FORCING REMAINS
WEAK INTO MONDAY BUT CHANCES REMAIN FOR AREAS AROUND THE PLATEAU.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE SCHC POPS FOR THE PLATEAU MONDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TIMING BETWEEN MODELS
IS STILL JUST A LITTLE OFF...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH QPF
OUTPUT EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY. AGREEMENT IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
HOWEVER AND BOTH MODELS HAVE PRECIP BLANKETING THE AREA THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE FRONT KNOCKS ON
THE DOOR LATE THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS MODEL AGREEMENT
LINES UP A BIT BETTER. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT LATER ON FRIDAY...MODELS
ARE QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MORE ZONAL AND
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT FINALLY
DID ABOUT A HOUR AGO AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTED TO
FUEL CONVECTION THAT NORMALLY WOULD HAVE DIED OFF AFTER SUNSET.
MODELS STILL SHOW A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SO
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR LIKELY AT
CROSSVILLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  72  94  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    94  68  94  68  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     88  67  86  67  82 /  20  10  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       94  69  93  69  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   94  68  93  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        94  69  94  69  91 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



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