Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 282101
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE MID STATE
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
QUANDARIES ABOUND ON THE ACTUAL SPECIFIC COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SHWRS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE ON SAT MORNING FOR THE MULTITUDE OF
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE AREA THAT MORNING. FIRST
OFF...FOR ANY LINGERING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING NOW THRU THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...BROKE OUT A LATE
AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES...
ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN THE END TO ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT WITH MOCLR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MID STATE W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRI...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY JUST ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THIS ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE...A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGED IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON FRI EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON...
RANGING FROM UPPER 70S N TO LOWER 80S S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...QUANDARIES ABOUND ON ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY SUNRISE ON SAT MORNING...
AND THEN PUSHES NWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS ON SAT...
INTO SAT NIGHT...AND INTO SUN. SO THE ABOVE MENTIONED SAT MORNING TIME
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS EVOLVING WX
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHWRS WITH ISO TSTMS FRI NIGHT...
AND A SWATH OF NUMEROUS MODERATE SHWRS WITH SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT
MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE DRIER SOLUTION THAN THIS
CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE WETTER SOLUTION THAN
CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS ALONG FORECASTERS INTERPRETATION
OF EVOLVING WX PATTERN NEEDED AS THIS TIME APPROACHES. BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN...WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING FINALLY THRU
THE MID ON SUN...ALONG WITH SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...AND THOSE
PESKY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IN FLOW WHICH CAN ADD SOME UNCERTAINTIES
TO STRENGTH OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO COOL...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES.

ESPECIALLY IF YOU CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION...WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
LINGERING MAINLY ISO LIGHT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST THRU TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE
MID STATE REGION BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS...AS TEMPS FINALLY WILL BE HOVERING AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL OVER THIS TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS MIXED ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BNA
AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. SKC WILL PREVAIL AFTER FROPA AS WELL. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT CSV BUT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TONIGHT FOR FOG NOT TO BE A CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  82  62  80  62 /   0  10  40  60  70
CLARKSVILLE    55  77  60  77  61 /   0  10  60  60  70
CROSSVILLE     54  79  61  75  62 /   0  10  20  60  70
COLUMBIA       56  81  61  78  62 /   0  10  40  40  70
LAWRENCEBURG   56  82  62  79  62 /   0  10  40  40  70
WAVERLY        55  80  60  79  61 /   0  20  60  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................31


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