Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 311953
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Shower activity just off to the west of the area has dissipated
early this afternoon which looks to be a result of ridging still
over the region. That will break down over the next few days as
a series of shortwaves will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. A few short term
models as well as the GFS do bring some QPF over the western zones
this evening and overnight, so left in mention of schc pops mainly
for the I-65 corridor and west.

Wednesday morning may have some lingering showers on the Plateau,
as well as the TN River Valley. As the upper trough approaches
from the southwest, chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Both the
GFS and ECMWF look to keep the trough off to the southwest, and
form a closed upper low by early Thursday morning over TX. As this
occurs overnight Wednesday and into the early part of the day
Thursday, weak ridging looks to keep precip chances lower before a
shortwave ejects to the east. This will bring likely pops in for
most of the area during the day and evening Thursday.

With the upper closed low continuing to linger over TX into the
day Saturday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
over the region through Sunday. A large trough will move into the
eastern CONUS over the weekend, and looks to phase with the TX
upper low. A cold front will move through the region late on
Sunday and finally clear out chances for showers and thunderstorms
by Monday morning. Upper ridging will try to move in but mainly
looking at broad northwest flow to continue for the first half of
next week. This will keep the area dry with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR flight rules. There is a very, very small chance that light
rain gets to KCKV or KBNA this afternoon, but cig bases should be
VFR and the rain likely wouldn`t be heavy enough to reduce vis.
Winds will be mainly light and variable throughout the cycle.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  91  69  89  69 /  20  30  30  50  40
Clarksville    65  87  66  85  65 /  20  30  30  50  40
Crossville     64  85  66  83  66 /  10  30  30  60  40
Columbia       67  89  68  87  68 /  20  20  30  50  40
Lawrenceburg   66  90  67  89  68 /  20  20  30  50  40
Waverly        66  87  67  86  66 /  20  30  30  50  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger


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