Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 051715
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
915 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next
few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather. Any meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Tuesday or Wednesday next
week. A warming trend is expected over the next few days. By
Friday, most areas will be about 10 degrees above average, and the
mild weather is expected to carry into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday: As the Eastern United States continues to
feel winter`s wrath, the Pacific Northwest will remain experience
more unseasonably mild and dry weather the next several days.
Split flow over the Western U.S. will continue to direct the storm
track well north of our region. Our 500mb high pressure ridge will
flatten a bit today allowing some thin cirrus to pass over the
region. The high cloud cover probably won`t inhibit our warming
trend much. We should see upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands
today. Another upper level disturbance is progged by the models to
flatten the ridge on Saturday. At this time, it looks like
precipitation with this system will be well north of the British
Columbia border. The weekend is shaping up to be mild and dry with
relatively light winds. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest for the weekend into early next week
with continued dry and mild weather. This ridge is fixed with a
low off the eastern Pacific while the northern storm track lies
across southern Canada. This storm track will help dampen the
ridge slightly by Monday. But by Tuesday, the medium range models
diverge with the GFS being the more aggressive and radial
solution compared to the ECWMF and Canadian. The GFS spins up a
stronger shortwave in the northern stream and drops down from the
Gulf of AK. Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian continue to keep the
ridge in place. The GFS ensemble plots suggest low confidence on
the operational GFS solution. Opted for a slower and more
conservative solution and leaned toward the Canadian, the more
medium of the road solution. This pattern flattens the ridge
slightly to introduce a small chance of precipitation on Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. By mid week, the presence of the Pacific
low creeping closer to the West coast, helps spread moisture into
the region. Despite the model discrepancies, all show a moister
flow. Still leaning toward the more consistent ECMWF and away from
the GFS which keeps snow levels and temperatures above normal.
/rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Bands of high level cirrus, with a slight bit of middle
level cloud as well at times, will spill over the flat upper
level ridge today into tomorrow. Winds will generally be light
and will experience afternoon upslope tendencies and downslope
evening and overnight tendencies with more generally light uplsope
winds late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        49  30  53  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  28  54  31  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        51  32  56  36  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  33  60  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  25  55  30  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  26  51  29  52  29 /   0   0  10   0  10   0
Kellogg        46  31  50  33  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake     54  30  60  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  36  59  40  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           53  31  57  34  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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