Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250455
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1055 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Much colder air will be moving into our region tonight. We should
see a 35 to 40 degree drop in temperatures from our highs today
to our lows tonight. High temperatures Saturday will actually be 7
to 10 degrees below seasonal normals with readings in the upper
30s to middle 40s, but we should at least see quite a bit of
sunshine by Saturday afternoon. Clear skies and light to calm
winds Saturday night will result in radiational cooling, with lows
in the 20s. A return of south winds on Sunday will begin a warm
up, with highs Sunday near seasonal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

By Sunday afternoon, models develop some light rain across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois due to warm air
advection. Models show the rain spreading across the entire area
Sunday night. QPF amounts are fairly light, with more significant
QPF remaining to our south and southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Average to below average confidence in the short term due to so-so
model agreement.

At the beginning of the long term period models are showing a system
developing over the southern plains with an area of overrunning
precipitation developing and spreading to the north and east. Models
not in good agreement on how quickly the precipitation spreads
into/across our CWA. Precipitation chances max out Monday night with
the approach and passage of the warm front associated with this
system.

Precipitation chances drop off somewhat on Tuesday with our region
being in the warm sector but instability increases so put in mention
of thunder. Tuesday night precipitation chances increase with the
passage of the cold front associated with the aforementioned system.
Still plenty of instability in place so continued with the mention
of thunder.

The outcome for Wednesday is still out there because models in
really bad agreement. The GFS has all precipitation east of our CWA
by Wednesday but the ECMWF lingers it over much of the area all day.
Just went with what Forecast Builder provided which looks more like
the ECMWF.

High pressure in the wake of the front should keep the region dry
and cooler Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday night a cold front
is forecast to cross the region but with very limited moisture so no
precipitation expected at this time, although the ECMWF cranks out.
a tad of QPF just north of our CWA during that period.

High pressure building back across the region on Friday should keep
it dry through the rest of the period.

Temperatures well above normal Monday night through Tuesday night,
then just a few degrees above normal in the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

May see a layer of low VFR cigs creep into the region for a few
hour late tonight into Sat morning. Otherwise, gusty west-
northwest winds 15-25 kts will continue through the daylight hours
on Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM


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