Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 252030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

As a low pressure system continues to churn west of the PAH
forecast area, light showers continue to dot the radar screens
this afternoon. So far, there has not been any lightning, but
there is a slight chance of it, and with moderate shear aloft,
limited instability might still allow an updraft or two to get
going enough for marginally severe hail or wind this afternoon,
especially where insolation can occur.

The models suggest a dry slot will move into the region this
afternoon from the west, possibly limiting the strength and
coverage of deep moist convection temporarily. Toward evening, the
stacked low pressure system is progged to move closer before
skipping off the PAH forecast area in a northeasterly direction.
Mid level energy embedded within it may provide additional lift
for a minimal resurgence of showers west of the MS River.
Meanwhile, showers are expected to continue in the eastern half
through the overnight period and into Sunday morning, gradually
diminishing from the west. Clouds should hang on for the rest of
the daylight hours Sunday, but should go partly cloudy Sunday
night for the only rain-free period of the short term.

Monday and Monday night will feature yet another tight low
pressure system right on the heels of the current one; this one
will have a more easterly trek and is progged to damp out as it
moves eastward. There should be enough instability for scattered
tstms to develop Monday across the area, and if wind/instability
parameters sync up, some storms could possibly be severe, mainly
in the southern third of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Surface high pressure building east across the Great Lakes region
will bring a brief lull in the wet weather for most regions
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, with seasonably mild afternoon
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. However a H50 split flow upper
low and its associated surface low will move east out of the
southern Plains states by later in the week, bringing with it our
next rain event. Right now, it appears the the surface low itself
will pass well south of our region, and that is where the more
unstable conditions will likely stay. Therefore, for now anyway,
will leave out any mention of thunder with this system. If the low
were to travel much farther north, a mention of thunder would be
warranted. Fair weather high pressure should make a return by early
next weekend.


Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Cigs, with the exception of mainly southeastern MO for part of the
afternoon, are expected to be mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF period.
Scattered to widely scattered showers, with mimimal vsby
restrictions, will continue to move northward today and tonight
ahead of a surface wind shift which should occur after sunrise
Sunday. While pcpn is expected to end in the west before the night
is over, it may linger in parts of southwestern IN and the
Pennyrile region of KY after sunrise as the parent low pressure
system pulls away toward the northeast. Lightning is possible
this afternoon, but not likely at any one terminal.




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