Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Forecast confidence in the near term is higher than average given
the relatively good agreement among forecast models.

Clouds will likely be reluctant to clear for much of the day as
low level moisture lingers. Even where partial clearing does take
place, mid and high level clouds will already be on the increase
ahead of the next weather system. Thus, temperatures will likely
remain in the 40s for much of the day, although a few locations
may end up pushing the 50 degree mark by mid afternoon.

An upper level low over the southern Rockies early this morning
is forecast to move into the central PLains today. The low is
progged to lift northeast into the Missouri River Valley Thursday
night as the shortwave trough south of the low pivots across the
forecast area. As a result, the potential for showers will be on
the increase from south to north tonight, with a peak in coverage
on Thursday, and diminishing rain chances from west to east
Thursday night.

Elevated instability will be marginal, but enough to support a
slight chance of thunderstorms across much of the area late
tonight into Thursday evening. Severe weather is not expected
given the marginal instability forecast. However, locally heavy
rain may become a concern, especially near and south of the Ohio
River where the heaviest rain fell with the last event and is
forecast with this event. Rainfall totals should range from about
one quarter to one half inch in the Missouri Ozarks to as much as
1.5 inches across western Kentucky near the Tennessee border. This
may aggravate locations where water is already standing due to
saturated soil conditions. However, the steady nature of the rain
should keep any potential for flash flooding to a minimum.

A respite from the wet weather should occur Friday and Friday
night, but clouds are likely to be stubborn to clear once again.
With warm south to southwest flow, temperatures may well top the
60 degree mark across much of the area by day`s end despite the
abundant cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Will continue to use a EC/GFS blend as the solutions remain similar.
Weak upper level energy will move NE across the region Saturday.
We`ll continue with a slight chance of showers. Saturday night PoPs
increase and remain high through Sunday night as forcing in response
to an upper low passing just to our south results in rains across
the area. Chances will decrease/end from west to east Monday-Monday
night. Tuesday should be dry. Will continue with a slight chance of
showers Tuesday night through Wednesday as the low PoP signal has
been persistent. Temperatures will continue to run above normal. We
used a EC/GFS MOS/model blend output.


Issued 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

As an area of high surface pressure moves into the region by
morning, westerly winds will become light and quite variable
overnight. MVFR cigs may flirt with the IFR threshold near daybreak,
mainly in southeastern MO. MVFR vsbys in fog are possible at some
locations around that time. By midday Wed, cigs are expected to go
VFR as the flow aloft turns southwesterly, but VFR clouds will be on
the increase again from the southwest.




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