Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 020520 AAB

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Fropa is ultimately ushering clouds to east albeit slowly. Cool
low 30s TD`s filtering in wake will pervade FA by morning, and
Lows will follow. That sets stage for coolish remainder of
forecast with largely mid-upper 40s highs and low-mid 30s lows
continuing for remainder of short term forecast.

As parent cyclone makes way across Great Lakes, its effects will
be felt as far south as our FA. Wrap around moisture syncs tmrw
pm-tmrw evening, when chance of a sprinkle (or flurry) is
possible. 1000-850 mb boundary layer thicknesses and 850 mb temps
after 00Z supporting flurry as surface temps drop into 30s shortly
after sunset.

Otherwise dry remainder of short term forecast with High pressure
incoming for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

The models continue to hint at a weak system moving through next
Monday. Until then high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
keeping the area dry with near normal temperatures. This system next
week shows an open low moving across the Plains, much like the
last system did but the available moisture is in question. With
the last system moisture was abundant but the Gulf is almost
completely shut off until the low closes off over the Mid
Mississippi and Lower Ohio valley. This will give us at least a
slight chance of rain Monday but will wait before final conclusion
until we see what the extended init yields. Also the models
differ on the lows exact path with the GFS favoring a more
southerly path suggesting little to no rainfall vs the ECMWF takes
a more northerly path with less of a Gulf connection.


Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

As high pressure overspreads the region, VFR conditions should
prevail at all sites through at least the first third of the
period. Beyond 15Z MVFR cigs are possible at KEVV/KOWB as wrap
around moisture drops southeast across part of the region. Winds
overnight should be variable AOB 5 knots, then around 15Z pick up
out of the west around 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots possible
at KEVV/KOWB through 00Z, then drop back off to AOB 10 knots.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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