Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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080
FXUS63 KPAH 300214
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
914 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Mid level short wave moving ese toward the forecast area has begun
to generate sct convection over sw IL and far ern MO this evening.
Band of 1000-1200 J/KG CAPEs ahead of this cluster may allow for
it to survive a bit longer into the night. 01Z HRRR also suggests
this. Thus, will need to increase shower/thunderstorm chcs some to
allow for isolated to scattered activity tonight, especially over
sw IL and se MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Average confidence in the short term mainly due to model differences.

Our area continues to be locked into a nearly stagnant pattern in
the short term. An approaching frontal boundary will approach and
become quasi-stationary somewhere across our CWA through the period.
Exactly where it comes to rest is the big question, and of course
will be a major determining factor on where to expect the highest
precipitation probabilities. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5
trough with a seemingly never ending parade of upper level
disturbances.

The combination of copius deep layer moisture/instability, upper
support, and the presence of the surface boundary, is expected to
generate multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
period. Timing/placement of synoptic features still showing some
variance among models so trying to pin down the highest
probabilities still difficult at this time.

Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period. No
heat headlines expected, but with dewpoints remaining in the 70s,
humid/sticky conditions will continue.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

For Monday into Tuesday, models keep a frontal system draped from
northwest to southeast from southern Illinois into west Kentucky.
Weak impulses moving along the front, along with diurnal heating,
will keep good chances of showers and thunderstorms across our
region Monday and Tuesday, with a bit lower chances Monday night. By
Tuesday night, models show the front a bit farther east, and with
loss of daytime heating, the focus for any showers and storms will
be across our eastern counties.  With the moist, unstable air mass
across the region, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will
be possible primarily during the afternoon hours Wednesday and
Thursday, with a lull in activity Wednesday night and Thursday night.

On Friday, models are in pretty good agreement showing a cold front
approaching our region, moving it into central Illinois and central
Missouri by 00z Saturday.  This should give us increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the day Friday.

South winds through the week will give us increasing warmth and
humidity.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Dew points will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, which will
give us heat indices around 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday, and in
the 100 to 105 degree range Wednesday through Friday, especially
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and far west Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain poised just to
the north and west of the TAF sites through the period. Could
possibly see a return IFR cigs/vsbys 08-14z...retuning to VFR by
16-18Z Sat.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



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