Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 050643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE
CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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