Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 010132 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and generally dry weather can be expected through Wednesday.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temps and dewpoint temps were adjusted to reflect observed values,
and sky cover was refined further amid continued presence of cirrus.
This cirrus deck will limit radiational cooling this evening,
which likely will enable overnight minima to remain slightly
warmer and closer to MOS guidance. Previous discussion follows...

Expect morning lows near, to about 5 degrees, above the averages
as radiation promotes a comfortable night in the wake of a reinforcing
front sagging over the area this evening. Tweaked MOS guidance was
used to forecast the readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly-eroding
high pressure. Models remain in overall agreement in depictions of
a shortwave/associated cold-frontal approach Wednesday night and
Thursday, with gradual PoP escalation to "likely" numbers by
Thursday. Above-average temperatures are anticipated given the
warm, moist advection in advance of the system. The latest MOS
guidance was combined with the SuperBlend depiction to forecast
temperatures for the short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests
that the front will lag in complete passage until Friday, with
chance pops maintained. While differences remain in evolution of
the pattern over the weekend into early next week, overall trend
of developing and deepening mid- and upper-level trough continues
in all models as a series of shortwaves move through the base of
the trough. Will keep shower chances through the period.
Temperatures were forecast 5 to 10 degrees below average by early
next week using SuperBlend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will maintain general VFR for the TAF period. The
only exception may be across the south, where moisture will begin
to increase toward daybreak. This could lead to some patchy fog
development.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late-week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Update...Kramar



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