Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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