Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS61 KPBZ 302312 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
712 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio
Valley through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
540pm update...main change in this update will be some
modification to evening/overnight PoPs. Will be timing and
placing PoPs increases/decreases in line with a series of upper
level waves that will swing through tonight. The strongest wave
will move through Ohio counties shortly before dawn. Rest of
forecast is in good shape.
Rain will be moderate at times overnight with favorable
dynamics...especially north and east of a line running roughly
from Zanesville to Dubois.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves
overhead. It appears that a dry slot will bring to an end the
widespread precipitation by midday, but scattered showers and/or
drizzle will likely continue with low level moisture trapped
under building subsidence inversion through Fri night.
Surface ridge will start to build overhead on Saturday, but
northwest flow and cold advection will likely keep skies cloudy
for a good part of the day. High pressure will support dry
conditions on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain just slightly above averages on Friday
and return to seasonal values for the weekend.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern continues starting with the approach of
the next low pressure system sometime Monday. With plenty of
uncertainty apparent in the new model runs, especially in
regard to low placement evolution, opted to use a model blend.
Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above
average for early April.
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
More organized rain will approach late tonight, leading to a
deterioration to at least MVFR conditions that will linger
A strong low-level jet will accompany the cold front late
tonight leading to LLWS concerns. Surface flow will gradually
transition from southeasterly to south and eventually
southwesterly as the low moves through Friday.
Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Saturday as broad
low pressure moves slowly across the region.