Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 220941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
541 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cool and unsettled weather is expected through Today with a
crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday
under high pressure.


Precipitation confined to a fairly narrow band of lake-enhanced
showers culminating from moisture convergence parallel with the
long axis of Lake Huron and extending southward over Lake Erie.
This lake-to-lake connection will gradually drift to the east, as
low-level flow slowly back later this morning. Precipitation chances
will return across the Pittsburgh metro and downwind into the
Ridges through midday. Eastern Ohio and the northern panhandle of
West Virginia will see a drying trend through the day, as the
focus of the showers shifts east.

Cold advection from the northwest is driving temperatures into
the upper 30s and low 40s. As temperatures continue to dip, some
of the lingering showers reaching the high terrain will change to
snow showers. Considering how warm we`ve been, any accumulation
should be minimal and on grassy surfaces.

An tightening pressure gradient and mixing in cold advection
should also result in gusty winds especially in the higher
terrain, where gusts around 40 mph are expected. At this time,
have not hoisted an advisory but have mentioned the wind gusts in
the HWO. Today`s highs will be suppressed by the strong northwest
flow and presence of clouds. Highs will be well below average,
and tonight`s lows will be near the seasonal averages.


Sunday will begin dry as high pressure tracks well to our south.
Deamplifying flow aloft and gusty southwest winds will allow
clouds to decrease and push afternoon temperatures back up to

Clouds will begin to increase again late in the day ahead of a
quick-moving surface low/midlevel shortwave dropping across the
Great Lakes. The best chance for showers late Sunday and Sunday
night will lie north of Pittsburgh where the best low-level
convergence will be seen, with some isolated activity possible
along the ridges. The low will drag a front across Sunday night,
which will bring temperatures back to below normal. Monday will
feature lingering clouds in northwest flow, most numerous across
the north, where a few isolated showers may continue. Skies should
begin to clear Monday night as surface high pressure and upper
ridging return.


Continued ridging aloft will maintain dry weather into Wednesday.A
digging trough will cross the Mississippi River and begin to
impact our region during the late week period, with our next
decent chance of rain. The models differ on the fate of this
trough at the end of next week, lending much uncertainty to
precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures will be near or
just a bit below climatology through the period.


Improvement to VFR has already been achieved in most locations
this morning. This is outside of a lake-enhanced band of showers
which is currently keeping MVFR ceilings in for HLG. As this band
gradually shifts eastward, temporary MVFR cigs could return to
PIT/AGC/BVI. By midday, all locations are expected to fully return
to VFR and last the balance of the TAF period.

Expect wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts as the mixing deepens via cold
advection at the top of the layer.

Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure
approaches the region in the wake of a late Sunday/early Monday
shortwave and associated weak front.




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