Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1247 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides
across the area. Rain will return to the region late tonight and
Friday as the next upper level system moves through. Mild pattern
continues through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With noon update, primary change is to keep cloud cover in through
much of the day, which also resulted in bringing high temperatures
down a degree or two. Low level temperature inversion is in no
hurry to mix out, and the stable conditions will keep moisture
trapped. Forecast will remain dry through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the
onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US
will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning.

An elongated warm front will swing through the area late tonight
and Friday morning as a series of shortwaves, on the extremity of
the main trough, rush through Friday morning. Have slowed the
onset of showers from the previous forecast and have also brought
a faster end to the precipitation Friday afternoon. By Friday
afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the
northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels.

Warm air advection will continue Friday night and Saturday as the
flow from the southwest strengthens. Forecast soundings are
indicating the atmosphere slowly drying out Saturday, which will
allow for some decrease in cloud cover. Temperatures Saturday will
be 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Sunday and
track eastward into early Monday, before turning toward the
northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Ensembles are in descent
agreement with the timing of this system, so a blend of guidance
will be used for the extended period. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR cigs will persist as low level moisture remains trapped under
building high pressure. A brief break is possible overnight
shortly before the next disturbance returns rain and IFR/LIFR
cigs.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely with low pressure Friday, and again on
Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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