Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE POST DAWN UPDATE FEATURED THE CANCELLATION OF THE
FROST...FREEZE HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. INSOLATION AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED AS RADIATIONAL RAPIDLY COOLS
THE REGION...BUT NOT THE EXTENT OF LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER EVE
AND RISING HEIGHTS. A LOW TEMPERATURE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER
THE AVERAGES SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS AGAIN MODEL TRENDS FOR
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO
SLOW IN MOVING THE STORM TO THE EAST. DELAYED TIMING SHOULD KEEP
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MONDAY. A BIT LEERY OF A NEARLY
DRY FORECAST WITH WARM FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
SHOULD SUFFICE. BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHORTWAVES
RIDING UP THE FRONT OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH
RADPIDLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.

USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
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