Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011205
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
805 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will produce a few showers across the
region this afternoon, with a slightly better chance for showers
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed low near KCVG will slowly wobble north through tonight
with drier air wrapping into the system. This will allow for at
least partly sunny skies today with mild temperatures. Still
expect scattered to isolated showers to develop in weak bands as
spokes of energy wind around the low.

The upper low will continue to migrate northeastward tonight
allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become
established. This will allow for the dry slot to make serious
inroads into the CWA, which means most areas should dry out for at
least a period going into Sunday morning. Temperatures will remain
well above the seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center
of the low passing near Lake Erie. As it does, the remaining
moisture will fuel scattered rain showers, primarily north of
Pittsburgh. Steepening low-level lapse rates and impressive wind
shear could generate a few thunderstorms, but the lack of deep instability
will likely limit overall growth.

The low will still be in the neighborhood Monday, but with our
location on the dry southwest quadrant, showers potential will be
much more limited. Compressed diurnal ranges will exist through
Monday, as highs will be near average, but lows will still be a
few degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure establishes over our area for the middle of next
week. This will bring dry conditions back to the area, with
temperatures gradually increasing through the week. By the latter
part of the week, temperatures will be well above-average.

There are still a lot of questions as to when the next
rain will approach. This is will largely be dependent on the
timing of the digging trough through the center of the country
middle of next week. Shower chances remain in the forecast for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy IFR fog and stratus will quickly improve to general VFR
through the day. Showers expected to to scattered to isolated
mainly this afternoon, but coverage not enough to include any
restriction at any port. MVFR stratus may develop overnight, with
some IFR possible at northern ports.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated restrictions possible in showers or thunderstorms Sunday,
followed by general VFR into mid week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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