Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 031000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.  WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO FOCUS THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS...AS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ON OUR EASTERN ZONES.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL
BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES.  WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  85  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  20  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  40  60  60
LGD  81  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  80  55  76  52 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/78/78


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