Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 241108
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 6000-9000
FEET AGL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-18
KNOTS THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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