Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 031735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD
HEAT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUING
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF ON THE REGION. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES AS SOME MARINE AIR SEEPS AND SPILLS OVER THE CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. STILL
HOT THOUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER BASIN FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY AND IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT KRDM AND KBDN
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10-20 AT KDLS...AND 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AT KRDM AND
KBDN. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
YAKIMA VALLEY, AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE APPEAR ON TRACK.
HOWEVER...THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY CARRY A
FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DRY GRASSY AREAS.  UNFORTUNATELY...FOURTH
OF JULY FIREWORKS CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEM.  ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FIRE ZONE
675 THAT COVERS THE HANFORD DISTRICT AND YAKIMA VALLEY.  IN THIS
AREA...SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AFTER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
MARINE AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE CASCADES.
IN EASTERN AREAS IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THAT AREA. ON SATURDAY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALSO IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL VERY WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER
SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY TO RANGE FROM 100-107 OVER THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
THEN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY EVENING WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FURTHER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PULL COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE CWA. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON EACH DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. MODELS HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
EACH DAY...BUT STILL INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CUT OFF
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY NORTH OF DESCHUTES...CROOK...AND GRANT
COUNTIES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARM AND CONTINUE IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOUNTAINS.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 105  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 105  72 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 107  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 105  69 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELN 102  71 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  99  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  98  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD 101  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ610-640-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ639.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WAZ675.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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