Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 220827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OFFSHORE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS PUSH TO THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
LOWS NORTHWARD PUSH IS IMPEDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA.

THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IN RETURN, WE WILL HAVE A BLUSTERY KIND OF DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL OUT
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE LUCKY IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

IN ADDITION, THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON TODAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A VORT
MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO
THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA
SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE
EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE
00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
/LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL START TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HOW MUCH THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR INLAND THEY GET WILL
BE THE QUESTION. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR INLAND AS KMIV. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND AS WELL AND LOOK TO
IMPACT KILG, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KMIV BETWEEN 8Z-10Z. SHOULD ANY HOLD TOGETHER AND
APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND A BIT
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN THE
EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER BAY REMAINS
UNCHANGED, AS DOES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GALE WARNING.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE
BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




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