Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240450
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1250 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain over our area overnight. Low
pressure will ride eastward along the front and it should pass
through our area on Monday. A second low will follow on Monday
night and Tuesday as the boundary sinks slowly to the south.
High pressure is forecast to build down from the northwest for
the middle part of the week. A cold front from the northwest is
anticipated to arrive on Friday. The front is expected to move
slowly to our southeast over the weekend as areas of low
pressure travel along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
**A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the I-95 corridor and
areas to the north and west for tonight through early Monday
morning.**

Widespread rain showers with downpours (1-2 inches per hour)
and scattered thunderstorms attm. Localized flooding and sct
severe with spin-ups noted across Srn nj recently. This should
continue much of the overnight with the most intense activity
across Delmarva and srn NJ. Frequent sps/svr/fls/ffw statements
being issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The boundary remains in the area with the low pressure system
moving through the region on Monday. A cold front will drop down
from the the north on Monday, taking its time as it makes its
way through our area. A continued chance for showers exists
through much of the day with a chance for some thunderstorms as
well. Heavy rain will remain a threat in some of the stronger
showers and in thunderstorms.

Some clearing may occur during the afternoon, mainly southern
areas, with more clearing expected towards evening.

Highs will rebound slightly and dewpoints should start to drop,
although that may be a slower process. It will still feel
humid, especially across Delmarva and extreme southern New
Jersey. Expect highs to be in the lower 90s from
I-95/Philadelphia and points to the south and in the mid to
upper 80s through central New Jersey. Lehigh Valley, Pocono and
northern New Jersey will remain cooler with highs in the 70s to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday
night. Based on the latest model guidance, drying may be delayed
a bit. It now appears as though the mid level short wave trough
from the northwest will not arrive until late Tuesday. As a
result, we will keep some clouds and a slight chance of showers
for Tuesday.

Dry air is anticipated to follow the mid level trough for
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on
Thursday and it should pass through our region on Friday. We
will indicate an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms
at that time.

The forward progress of the front is expected to slow over the
weekend as waves of low pressure travel along the boundary. We
will continue to carry a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Sunday, but that could change if the front starts to trend
toward being even less progressive.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonable during the period
from Monday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Widespread  poor cigs/vsbys with showers and sct tstms over the
area tonight. Conditions should persist into Monday morning.
More sct tstms later monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night...Conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in the early
morning, then VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday night and Friday...MVFR and IFR conditions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area
waters through Monday. Seas are 2 to 4 feet on the ocean and
around 2 to 3 feet on the Delaware Bay. While seas are expected
to remain below 5 feet, they may near 5 feet late tonight/early
Monday, mainly our northernmost waters. Additionally, winds will
pick up some overnight our of the east in response to a surface
low moving over the area and a tightening pressure gradient.
The gradient doesn`t look to fully wrap up until the surface low
is to the east of our area. Winds may gusty briefly near 25
knots but confidence is low that a small craft advisory will be
needed.

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the area waters through
tonight, with locally higher seas and gusty winds.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night through Friday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...
A low risk remains is expected for Monday for rip currents with
a possible moderate risk along the Monmouth and northern Ocean
County beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisory has been taken down. Minor tidal
flooding has occurred with the past high tide. It`s possible
that more may occur Monday night, but that is not certain yet.
We may issue another Coastal Flood Advisory with the 330 am
package.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Dew point readings at KDOV continue to measure too high
compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as
unrepresentative of the area.

Hamburg NJ transmitter is off the air. No known rts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino/99
Near Term...PO
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...PO
Marine...Iovino/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...PO
Equipment...



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