Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KPIH 311956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND OVER EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE WASHINGTON COAST WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DELAYS
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOT BEFORE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE TOWARDS SATURDAY BUT MOVE THE LOW BY THEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET...BOTH FOR LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY AND THE EAST IDAHO STATE FAIR IN BLACKFOOT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND MAY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE GIVES KIDA STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS TODAY SO MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY BUT NOT QUITE AS BREEZY TODAY WITH A STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT WINDS REMAIN
UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG WA/OR COAST AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SE BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST
TRENDS FOR FIRE ZONE 410 WITH RESPECT TO COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RH
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FIRE ZONES 475 AND 476...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY FOR FIRE ZONE
410...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONCERNS.
MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF IDAHO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.