Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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655
FXUS65 KPIH 292004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.
Dry conditions expected overnight with mild temperatures. Saturday
some monsoonal moisture may work north and expect some isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity mainly in the southern and
eastern highlands along the Utah and Wyoming borders for the most
part. Could see more fire starts in those regions. A weak frontal
system will move through Saturday night and Sunday and expect more
breezy conditions Sunday across southeast Idaho with winds
increasing Saturday afternoon in the central mountains. Hot
conditions will continue through Sunday with many highs remaining
in the mid to upper 90s. GK

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.
Mainly dry weather expected with another frontal system passing
east Tuesday. Best chance for convection should be Tuesday with
Tuesday and Wednesday the breeziest days. Temperatures will start
out very hot Monday then cooling to near seasonal normals by
Wednesday.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions today with slightly breezy
winds. Saturday monsoon moisture will move up from our South. This
will allow for a chance of vicinity thunderstorms for taf
sites...particularly across the Eastern Magic Valley and the Snake
River plain by late afternoon into the early evening tomorrow. Wyatt
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Broad high pressure is in place across the Western
United States with weak West NorthWest flow over our area. Expect
slightly breezy winds this afternoon. Otherwise...expect very dry
conditions and above normal temperatures.

Tonight into Saturday expect monsoon moisture to start to move into
the area from our South ahead of a trough over Southern Canada.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across our
Southern areas and the Island Park region. A fire weather watch is
in place for zones 411...413 and 427 for Saturday afternoon into
early evening. The mid shift will use the next model run to narrow
done the best areas of thunderstorm potential and issue Red Flag
warnings. Also...Saturday afternoon into early evening look for
winds with gusts near 20 to 25 mph for the Central Mountains with
relative humidity 8 to 16 percent. Winds will increase to 25 to 30
mph gusts on Sunday accompanied with even drier relative
humidity...6 to 14 percent...as the trough moves east in Southern
Canada. Thus...a fire weather watch for high winds and low relative
humidity is in effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday for
zones 475 and 476. For Saturday relative humidity looks just above
15 percent for zones for 410..411 and 422 as well winds slightly
below criteria...though elevated. Thus...a highlight for these zones
has not been issued. This will not likely be the case for Sunday.
Fire weather zones 410...411 and 422 in addition to 475 and 476 will
likely need a Red Flag warning due to high winds and low relative
humidity.

A slightly stronger trough moves over Northern Idaho late Monday
into Tuesday. Monday evening thunderstorms are possible over the
Bear Lake Region extending North along the Wyoming border near
Driggs with a brief return of monsoon moisture. Expect gusty winds
of 25 to 30 mph yet again mainly over the Central Mountains and
Snake River plain on Tuesday. A dry cold front associated with this
trough will sweep across the area Tuesday bringing dry conditions
and more seasonable temperatures...just slightly above
normal...Wednesday and Thursday. Wyatt

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for IDZ413-427.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for IDZ475-476.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for IDZ411.

&&

$$



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