Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN`T ACCOUNTED FOR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$



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