Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 300850
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW CLEARLY SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS DRIVING
INTO OREGON AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
AROUND NOON TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST TODAY.
MODELS FOCUS THE QPF FIELD MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY
SEE SOME RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS WELL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. SOME CEILING IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT BUT WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH SNAKE
PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN KTWF/KPIH 18Z-03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT AS WELL. SFC HIGH
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM WEST OVERNIGHT BUT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEHIND MAIN TROUGH/FRONT COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VCSH FOR KPIH/KIDA THROUGH 12Z.
DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH IDAHO EARLY TODAY WITH
AMPLIFIED SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASED WINDS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HUMIDITIES REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF RECENT DAYS RAINFALL. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY
EASTERN HIGHLANDS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS. DMH
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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