Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 240236 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
336 PM SST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
01F WAS DIFFICULT TO DETECT AFTER LAST NIGHT DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAVE OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AT THIS POINT...IT/S
UNCLEAR WHETHER TD 01F HAS DISSIPATED OR NOT. HOWEVER...THE ASCAT
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK SIGNATURE OF TD 01F TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MONSOONAL TROUGH FROM THE WEST OF THE
DATE LINE RUNS TO TD 01F NEAR LONGITUDE 177 WEST OR ABOUT 450 NM
(515 SM) TO THE NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO 15S169W.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FCST ZONES IS THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS AGREE TO KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...NUMEROUS TO
FREQUENT RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS
IN SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN TURNING NORTH AT 10 KT MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KT DURING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
48 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL
USHER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY. THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ASCEND HENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST ZONES DURING THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MONSOON
TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF UP TO 8
FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH TUESDAY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI






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