Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 280103
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
203 PM SST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH OF SAVAII TO BEYOND
TUTUILA...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION SUGGEST
A LOT OF RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL FORCE THE
TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FCST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MONSOON TROUGH DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN INFAMOUS MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL DECLINE TO NEAR 15 KT SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FCST ZONES BEFORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL GENERATE
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAZARDOUS LOCAL SWELLS IN THE AREA. THE LATEST WAVE
WATCH MODEL SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SETS DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SWELL TRAIN CAN TRIGGER
SURFS TO REACH HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLDS THUS WILL MONITOR THIS
SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI







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