Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 280106
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
206 PM SST WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
ALLOW NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FCST ZONES AND CHANNELS WEST OF MANUA DURING FRIDAY (07/291800
UTC TO 300600 UTC). IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...A SERIES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER TUTUILA WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
REGION WILL USHER MODERATE EASTERLIES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION DURING MONDAY
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST STARTING MONDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
REFLECTS THE ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OF SAVAII. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL ENTER THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL REMAIN NEAR HAZARDOUS
CRITERION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST WAVE WATCH
MODEL HINTS AT BRINGING LONG PERIOD SSW SWELLS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURFS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SSW FACING REEFS. THEREFORE...ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES FOR
HIGH SURFS AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

CB








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