Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 160704
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
504 PM CHST WED APR 16 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ISLANDS OF THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10N150E AND A SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF THE
SAIPAN WATERS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST ZONES ARE IN AN AREA BETWEEN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS GENTLE
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW...THINKING THIS IS JUST DIURNAL CYCLING. 8
HOURS AGO THERE WAS SOME BETTER LOOKING CONVECTION SO AM THINKING
IT WILL BLOW UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TAKING THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM AND STILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA AT LEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE A
BIT...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AROUND MONDAY. NO ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR POHNPEI WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
ITS LOCATION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION NORTHWEST
OF CHUUK AT 10N149E AND THE WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS NEAR EQ172E. FOR KOSRAE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UNSETTLED
WEATHER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE EAST PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED AS THE WEEK COMES
TO AN END AS THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS MOVES
NORTHWEST. ASCAT AND SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF
DRIER TRADE-WINDS FOR FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS TODAY THAT
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHT
AGREEMENT OF THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MAJURO
THROUGH WEEKEND AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES
BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR
10N150E. CONVERGING SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR KOROR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MOVING 98W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 98W IS PROGGED
TO PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP SATURDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST AT YAP AND KOROR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AT YAP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS





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