Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 222212
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
812 AM CHST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS RIGHT NOW...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE VAD
WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST TRADE WINDS OF 12 TO 21 KNOTS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM IS COMBINING WITH THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE GUAM WATERS. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PASS SOUTH OF
GUAM...HENCE THE FORECAST REMAINING ISOLATED. THERE WILL BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THANKS TO THESE FEATURES THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTERWARD SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN A DAY OR TWO
THEN BACK TO A TRADE-WIND REGIME.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT AFTER
MID-WEEK. THE SWELLS AND SURF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THEY MAY STILL BE MORE THAN NOVICES
CAN HANDLE. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADING TO THE REEFS OR WATER THE
NEXT WEEK OR MORE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT/WINDSAT COMPOSITE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD THRU THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO
BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THREE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION. ONE NEAR CHUUK LAGOON AT 153E...
ANOTHER ONE APPROACHING KOSRAE FROM 165E AND FINALLY A THIRD ONE
MOVING ACROSS THE MARSHALLS AT 169E. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
MAINTAIN SPORADIC SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK UNTIL THIS EVENING. BY LATER
TONIGHT...MUCH DRIER TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING POHNPEI SHOULD FILTER
WESTWARD INTO CHUUK. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO SPREAD
CONVECTION OVER KOSRAE LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL PASS SOUTH OF
POHNPEI AND CHUUK INSTEAD. THEN THE THIRD DISTURBANCE DEPARTING THE
MARSHALLS WILL PROLONG WETNESS NEAR KOSRAE THRU MONDAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM COULD ALSO SPARK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR POHNPEI MONDAY
AND CHUUK MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A FAIR TRADE REGIME SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR BOTH LOCALES UNTIL MIDWEEK. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
PRESENT FROM SOUTH OF KOSRAE AT EQ165E...STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD
THRU THE DATE LINE AT 3N TO WELL BEYOND 7N160W. FRESH DRY TRADES
NORTH OF THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY MAJURO THRU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY
SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS COULD GRADUALLY STEER THE TROUGH AND ITS RELATED
CONVECTION WESTWARD INTO THE MARSHALLS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
REST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA NEAR MIDWEEK.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF AND
RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE STATE AND
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SURF HEIGHTS
AT BOTH PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS. LONG-PERIOD NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND WILL ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND
CHUUK ON TUESDAY. COMBINING WITH TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES...
IT COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR TRADE-WIND PATTERN.

SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH GENTLE TRADES WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR KOROR THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TRADE SURGE IN THE FORM OF A DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING
YAP THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER
COVERAGE AT ISOLATED CATEGORY BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEPARTING CHUUK
TODAY AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD MERGE WITH THE ONE APPROACHING YAP
ON MONDAY. THE COMBINED DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR YAP ON MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES TOWARD KOROR MONDAY
NIGHT...UNSTABLE WEATHER IS GOING TO SPREAD THERE AS WELL.
TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BY MIDWEEK BUT NO HAZARDOUS SURF
IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN





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