Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 040654 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
452 PM CHST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WELL...BOTH SHOWING A
RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED. GFS STILL ESTIMATES LESS
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WAS UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TO
STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 1 TO 2 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR TODAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
MARIANAS...A CLIMBING KBDI...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
CONDITIONS THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF MAJURO AND SHOWERS ARE WIDELY
SCATTERED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ATOLLS FOR TODAY. SATELLITE AND
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS
PROVIDING A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOW
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST WITH DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING FOR MAJURO OVER
THE WEEKEND.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR MAJURO. ALTIMETRY DATA AND WW3
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO.

DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AT LEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH STILL OVER THE
EASTERN RMI TODAY MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 2N-3N AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FOR KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK. FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS
FOR KOROR...WHILE A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS YAP STATE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS YAP AND KOROR AS A SHEAR LINE REFORMS AND SAGS
SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FAIRLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
AT CHUUK UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN SOME SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

ALSO FOR CHUUK...ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE NEAR 9 FEET AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE SEAS REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS NEAR 10 FEET.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON



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