Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 222054
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
654 AM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MARIANA ISLANDS ARE BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 22N AND
A MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA NEAR 6N. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE DISTURBANCE IS VISIBLE NEAR 14N160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER MODERATE TRADES ARE GOING TO DOMINATE OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. THEN THE TRADE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST SHOULD APPROACH
THE MARIANAS. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT THE ONSET OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIR TRADE REGIME
WILL RESUME.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SURF ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TO DECREASE BY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL KEEP SEAS
AT 5 TO 7 FEET THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
NEAR CHUUK AT 6N152E AND A MONSOON/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION AT 5N164E THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO END
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO AT ABOUT 9N177E. THE CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK IS
VERY SLOW MOVING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE OTHER WEAK CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE...PATCHY
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE WIND FLOW DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA
DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES CONDITIONS OVER FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR KOROR AND YAP THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
AND YAP STATE SHOULD MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED
FOR VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON



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