Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 270601 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
357 PM CHST TUE JAN 27 2015

RESENT FOR WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND
COASTAL WATERS WITH JUST A FEW LOW CUMULUS DRIFTING BY. A
FRAGMENTED SHEAR LINE IS FOUND FARTHER NORTH...NORTH OF PAGAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER A PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS. AT THE MOMENT MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THIS
TRANSITION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TODAY ALLOWING THE DISCONTINUATION OF THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AT TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION IS SOUTH OF MAJURO
NEAR 3N172E...AND CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. SHOWERS ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE AND ASCAT WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ROUGHLY ALONG 5N FROM ABOUT 160E TO 170E...AND SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD MOVE TOWARD POHNPEI TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY DRY
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF CHUUK STATE FOR THE NEAR
TERM AT LEAST. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
ONLY SLOWLY AND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN THE WHOLE PATTERN COULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN.
A DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO EASTERN
MICRONESIA BY NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MAJURO AND HSA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR KOSRAE. LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS
POHNPEI AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION THRU MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD YET DEVELOP FOR CHUUK
DEPENDING ON THE SIZE OF AN ARRIVING NORTH SWELL ALONG WITH TRADE-
WIND WAVES...AND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR PATTERN.

KOROR AND YAP REMAIN BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THAT AN OLD
REMNANT SHEAR LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA COULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD
AND CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT YAP AND POSSIBLY
KOROR BY THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON



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