Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290603
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST MON DEC 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE OVER THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE COULD BE
SEEN ON AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF 150E.
PROJECTING THIS AREA WEST SHOWS IT SHOULD START TO PUSH ACROSS
THE MARIANAS AROUND NOON TIME TUESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS DO SHOWS
THIS FEATURE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
THE MARIANAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE
TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS
AROUND SATURDAY EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO BRING A FEW PERIODS OF
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST. BUOY DATA INDICATE SEAS NEAR GUAM AND SAIPAN AROUND
7 FEET. LITTLE WILL CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A
LARGER NORTH SWELL ENTERING THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS IS PROBABLY
THE RESULT OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF
OF JAPAN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IT MAY INCREASE SEAS TO 10
FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT OVER
THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PATCH OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS JUST NOW
REACHING KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. THE
DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
MARSHALLS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT THE TWO
LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
PUSHING UP OVER KOSRAE SO HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING THURSDAY. POHNPEI WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS SHOW LESS SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 10
FEET...HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...FROM POHNPEI STATE
EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SWELL WILL ALSO PROLONG THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE
THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
WITH THE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND WELL SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
ALONG A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR. SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH AND SHOWERS TOWARD YAP AND KOROR WHILE ECMWF
KEEPS THE ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. WILL HAVE TO GAUGE THE
REGION OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
NORTHWARD EXPANSION IN THE COMING DAYS.

LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 10
FEET IN CHUUK STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS TO OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT





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