Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010533
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
333 PM CHST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE MARIANAS...AND
VIRTUALLY NOTHING OUT TO THE EAST AS FAR AS 150E. A WEAK TRADE
WIND DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS EAST OF 150E. THE BUOYS
ARE REPORTING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS DRY MONDAY...THEN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINS OVER SOUTHWEST GUAM AND RELATIVELY MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT BY
WEDNESDAY...IF NO WETTING RAIN FALLS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF CHUUK ACROSS POHNPEI STATE INTO SOUTHERN
KOSRAE STATE. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WELL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SOME SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH UP TO ABOUT 8N FOR NORTHERN CHUUK AND
POHNPEI STATES BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJURO AND THE RMI THROUGH TUESDAY AT LEAST. GFS MODEL
INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG THE DATE
LINE EAST OF MAJURO AND IT COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE HELPFUL SHOWERS
FOR PARTS OF THE RMI NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA ABOVE. FOR YAP AND
KOROR...A SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF KOROR IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PALAU THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE A VERY DRY TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR YAP
STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON



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