Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 270535
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
335 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR88D SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD SHEAR
LINE FRAGMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. IPAN BUOY
SHOWS SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS
CENTERED WEST OF POHNPEI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECAST REMAIN UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. JTWC HAS UPGRADED INVEST 98W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W.
LATEST GFS RUN AND JTWC FORECAST TRACK KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF GUAM...MOVING THROUGH EASTERN YAP STATE MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MARIANAS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MAY
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO TD 04W.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU AND
ULUL. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM POHNPEI TOWARD CHUUK STATE THIS EVENING. TD 04W WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND MOVE IN A DIRECTION JUST NORTH OF WEST IN THE COMING
DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
NWS GUAM AND THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN POHNPEI AND CHUUK
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AREAS FROM POHNPEI EASTWARD ACROSS KOSRAE
STATE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MOST OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...ARE NOW INDICATING THAT WET AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND POSSIBLY MORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE SEAS AND SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT
POHNPEI...BUILDING TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL MIGHT CREATE A HIGH
SURF EVENT ACROSS KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING
AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS COULD ALSO REACH HAZARDOUS
LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU AND
ULUL. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL AFFECT ISLANDS OF
CHUUK STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE WEST INTO CHUUK STATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS WEEKEND.
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
IMPROVE AS TD 04W MOVES AWAY TOWARD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE ACROSS CHUUK
STATE NEXT WEEK.

YAP AND KOROR...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE. FOR THE
LONGER TERM...MODELS INDICATE THAT TD 04W...NOW BETWEEN CHUUK AND
POHNPEI...WILL MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AND AFFECT THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS BY TUESDAY. LATER FORECASTS FOR
YAP AND KOROR WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON DEVELOPMENTS OF TD 04W.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND KOROR. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS RELATED TO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA WILL PUSH LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL TOWARD YAP STATE AND THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS AND SURF COULD BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TD 04W APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CHST SATURDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON



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