Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 280711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
508 PM ChST Wed Jun 28 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows an upper-level low moving westward across the far
northern CNMI. Also, extensive clouds with patchy showers are south
and southeast of Guam. ASCAT Analysis shows a weak circulation far
south of Guam near 4N142E, moving very slowly westward. Quite a bit
of cloud cover along with spotty showers and thunderstorms has been
developing between these two systems over the local forecast zones.
Buoys are running 4 to 5 feet, mainly from the east.


Only minor changes were made to the forecast. Based on our latest
Satellite loops and GFS Model, we can still expect scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms at times by late tonight through Thursday
night or Friday morning, with isolated thunderstorms likely through
the weekend at least. There may be brief gusty winds near showers,
but otherwise the wind and wave conditions should remain benign.


.Eastern Micronesia...
A wide band of trade-wind convergence and patchy showers continue to
develop over this area from just east of Chuuk across Pohnpei and
Kosrae States and the Marshall Islands. Showery weather will persist
for Majuro tonight through Thursday night while spreading westward
during the next couple of days. Improving and slightly drier weather
should slowly develop for Majuro, Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk over the
weekend. The far northern RMI remains dry. Majuro/Kalo Buoy shows
combined seas of 4 to 5 feet.


.Western Micronesia...
Discussion for the Chuuk forecast can be found under Eastern
Micronesia above.

ASCAT Analysis shows a near-equatorial trough stretching eastward
across 8N130E through a weak circulation southeast of Yap at 4N142E
and through another possible circulation south of Chuuk near 5N151E.
Models indicate the weak circulation near 4N142E will move toward
northwest and trigger showers and a few thunderstorms near Yap and
Koror the next couple days. The circulation should also gradually
lift the trough farther north, but it could move slower and it might
produce more widespread showers than models indicate. At this time,
relatively drier weather is expected to develop for Koror and Yap
this weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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