Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 021915
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 AM CHST WED SEP 3 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW-NE OUT NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS...WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE REMAINS OF TUESDAY EVENING`S CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK THAT
WAS OVER AND EAST OF GUAM HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED. A NEW OUTBREAK
IS RUNNING ITS COURSE 150 TO 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM...BUT
RADAR SHOWS VERY FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT. BUT THEN DRYING ALOFT BRINGS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI. MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES RETURN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS COME BACK TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE REDONE THE MARINE GRIDS...AS BUOYS SHOW THAT A SOUTHWEST
SWELL HAS ENTERED THE MARIANAS WATERS...GENERATED BY MONSOONAL
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PALAU AND YAP. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PETER OUT
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RAISE SOME SURF ALONG WEST AND SOUTH FACING
SHORES FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THE RIP RISK
WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVED WEST OF KOSRAE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH POHNPEI STATE THIS MORNING AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI. SURFACE RIDGING
SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR WILL HELP TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...THUS PROLONGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO MAJURO THIS EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH POHNPEI STATE
WILL BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO CHUUK TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THUS PROLONGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
CHUUK THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRIER PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN AT YAP AND KOROR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINTAINING AN OVERALL UNSTABLE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WAVE WATCH DATA INDICATE A SHORT-PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO 7 FEET BY TONIGHT ALONG WESTERN
SHORES OF YAP AND KOROR. THIS SWELL COULD PRODUCE SURF CONDITIONS
BARELY WITHIN HAZARDOUS LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE





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