Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 181940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
540 AM ChST Sat Aug 19 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Numerous clouds and an isolated shower prevailed across the
Marianas early this morning. Combined seas were generally around
2 feet at the buoys.


There is a break in the rain early this morning, but guidance
continues to show and deep moisture continuing through tonight
and diminishing into early Sunday. This moisture coupled with the
approach of an upper low should bring the return of showers.
left the scattered showers and isolated thunder into tonight. Also
added thunder into early Sunday. Then, drier air should move in
for later Sunday into Sunday night. Another weak disturbance may
increase moisture and bring another shot of thunderstorms on
Monday. Surf along east facing reefs will be 3 to 5 feet, lower
elsewhere. Seas will generally be 3 feet or less for the upcoming


.Eastern Micronesia...
A near-equatorial trough with fairly robust trade-wind convergence
is causing showers and thunderstorms from near Chuuk across Pohnpei
State to the Kosrae area. Dry and quiet weather is over the Marshall
Islands this morning. The GFS Model indicates the trough will edge
northward and expand a little both west and east. Areas of showers
will develop at times near the trough, including over the Marshall
Islands. Hopefully, some showers will also move over the northern
RMI within the next few days. Surface winds are expected to weaken
and become southerly or light and variable by Sunday or Monday at
some locations. Majuro/Kalo buoy shows seas near 3 feet.


.Western Micronesia...
Moist southwest flow continues across Palau and Yap, and the axis of
a monsoon trough is farther north over the Philippine Sea. GFS Model
still shows a circulation developing well north of Yap during the
next couple of days. This will maintain southwest to south winds
over far Western Micronesia through the weekend. A surface trough
currently approaching Chuuk will move westward and possibly cause
more showers and unstable weather at Yap and Koror early next week.


Marianas Waters...None.


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