Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 061427
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REPLETE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING NORTH SOUTH LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 8 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 AM MST...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE


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