Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 291434
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
735 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION
POPULATION CENTERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT
WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY. A MINOR
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIFT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE 100 TO 103
DEGREE RANGE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD ADD MORE HEAT TO THE AREA.
WARMEST TEMPS PEAK ON SUNDAY. CURRENT DRY AND HOT FORECASTS LOOK OK.
NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...455 AM MST...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR AND SFC WINDS GNLY LIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE RIM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS YIELDING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT FOLLOWING FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK WITH THE USUAL
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS


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