Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301017
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
417 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again this afternoon...

Currently...quiet conditions exist across southern Colorado early
this morning.  Radar has indicated a few echoes back over the
continental divide and into the San Luis Valley with a few sprinkles
possible through sunrise.  Temperatures are running in the upper 40s
to lower 50s across much of the region.

Today...two upper level disturbances, one over southern Arizona and
one strengthening over the Northern Rockies, will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms for southern Colorado
this afternoon.  The Arizona system will send weak energy and
moisture northward into Colorado, while the northern system sends a
cold front and shortwave trough south into northern Colorado.

The dryline is forecast to set up across far eastern Colorado by mid
afternoon.  Models in decent agreement with the set up today, with
showers and thunderstorms firing about 20z along the dryline,
generally east of a La Junta to Kim line.  Models are indicating
CAPE values around 2000 j/kg along the Kansas border, however shear
will be lacking and will likely limit the severe potential this
afternoon.  That being said, one or two strong to severe storms are
possible, especially over eastern Las Animas into Baca Counties,
with a secondary area favored over Kiowa County.  Hail to one inch
in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible with the strongest
storms.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across
the mountains by late morning and spread eastward into the I-25
corridor this afternoon and evening.  Small hail, locally moderate
to heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary threats.
Afternoon high temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 80s
across much of the lower elevations.

Tonight...thunderstorms associated with the dryline are forecast to
track eastward into western Kansas during the evening hours, while
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and adjacent plains
dissipate through midnight.  Any severe threat near the Kansas
border will diminish with sunset and as storms move to the east of
the area.  A cold front is forecast to drop south across the plains
by Tuesday morning with a northeasterly wind shift.  Models are
hinting that the upslope moist flow behind the front will lead to
shower development over the eastern mountains, Palmer Divide and
Raton Mesa during the early morning hours.  Overnight lows will be
slightly cooler with mid to upper 40s for most areas. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

...Cool and unsettled through Wednesday then warmer and drier...

A disturbance and cold front are poised to impact the area Tuesday
into Wednesday with cooler than average temperatures and decent
chances for precipitation over much of the east.  The best chance
for precipitation will come Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold
front descends southward through the plains, sending a strong surge
of upslope flow southward. While previous model runs have had the
main precipitation shield concentrated right along and near the east
slopes of the mountains, gradually progressing southward with time,
the 06Z NAM has now shifted the precipitation maximum eastward
across the plains.  Not sure what to think of this.  I`m always a
little leary of the intermediate 06Z model runs. Conceptually, with
upslope flow, it makes sense to have the maximum precipitation back
up against the mountains.  However, if the precipitation area being
depicted by the models is really more of an MCS type of feature,
then it could conceivably track southeast across the plains, tied
more to convective processes in the atmosphere and not so much tied
to upslope forcing along the terrain.  In any event, still a good
chance of rain for many areas of the east late Tuesday and Tuesday
night.  I`m just not sure where the maximum precipitation will
occur.  Where it does occur, there will be the potential for locally
heavy rain.

Most of the precipitation should be over by Wednesday morning
although some may still be falling over southern areas.  However,
this should decrease through the morning.  The rest of Wednesday
should be cloudy and cooler than average over the east.  By late in
the day, enough instability should build over the mountains for
another round of afternoon and evening storms.  However, with more
stable air across the plains, any precipitation coming off of the
mountains will probably not last too long once it starts to head
east.

Thursday through the weekend, a large, warm ridge of high pressure
will build over the western U.S. and northern Rockies. This will
result in a strong warmup across the area as well as decreasing
thunderstorm chances.  In fact, the air over the plains will likely
dry enough for only very isolated activity during the period. The
mountains, on the other hand, will see enough lift from the
terrain to generate a little better coverage of storms. A lot of
areas across the lower Arkansas River Valley from the Pueblo area
eastward will probably be up around 90 degrees Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all three terminals
from 20z through 04z/Tue.  Reduced CIGS and VIS are possible with
any thunderstorms that move over terminals.  KCOS has the highest
potential of seeing a thunderstorm.  A cold front is forecast to
drop south across KCOS and KPUB late tonight into Tuesday morning
with a northeasterly wind shift.  Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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