Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 312119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENTLY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION AND HEADED SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO TELLER
COUNTY OR CROSS THE SANGRES...THEY WEAKEN QUICKLY. COOL STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PERSISTENT CLOUD OVER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE I25 CORRIDOR....WHICH HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN STABLE FROM THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY EASTWARD...AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION WHICH MOVES INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST
SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE HRRR RUNS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER STORMS STAYING FURTHER WEST OF
THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM
REACHING WALDO CANYON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS STORMS
WILL WEAKEN. APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD ALLOW A FEW WEAK
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ONTO THE I25 CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I25 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THE UPSLOPE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EVEN OVER TELLER COUNTY. LATEST
NAM STILL KEEPS PW OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AND SOUTHWARD. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. STILL APPEARS
TO BE CAPPED FURTHER EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS BY THE KANSAS BORDER.
OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOSTLY STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LIKELY AFTERNOON
STORMS. - -PGW--

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...PUSHING BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO NM OVERNIGHT. WILL END POPS MOST AREAS LATE
FRI EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW POPS PAST 06Z FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NM BORDER. FOR SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM UTAH INTO WRN CO...AND NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY FROM PUEBLO SOUTHWARD. MAX
TEMPS WILL FINALLY REBOUND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY
AUG...THOUGH EVEN WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY NOT REACH
90F. HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD SUN...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-25 LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN EVENING. MAXES SUN
CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH HIGH OVERHEAD...AND A FEW 90S MAY
FINALLY REAPPEAR ON THE PLAINS.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM MON WHILE
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING...SHOULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN UPTURN IN PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH THEN
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY OVER NRN CO TUE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
TO SCT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH UPSLOPE SURGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT COULD AID IN CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUE
EVENING. DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WED/THU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM MON/TUE MOST LOCATIONS...THEN
GRADUALLY COOL WED/THU AS UPPER HIGH RETREATS AND COOLER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

KCOS AND KPUB...CHANCES FOR THUNDER HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING
AND REMOVED VCTS FORM TAFS. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB
VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL DECREASE STABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES.

KALS...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW


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