Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131719
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PUEBLO COUNTY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PUEBLO COUNTY
UNTIL 10 AM MST AND ALSO ADJUSTED FRONT END OF GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

OTHER THAN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND LOCALIZED LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE
BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

RECENT LONGER TERM PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT AFTER EASTERN SECTION LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS MORNING THAT
GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO...GUSTY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WIND GUSTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME MSTR IN THE NW FLOW WL
LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS AND SOME OF
THE ERN MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS STILL DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT PCPN.
SOME SNOW WL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...THE
REST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY ON MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.  THE UPR RIDGE THEN MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES ON
TUE...AND OVR CO ON WED.  THIS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.

THU THE UPR RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AS AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  SOME PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTDVD BY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROF.
ALSO...HIGH TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL LIKELY GET INTO THE
70S...WITH THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS SEEING 50S TO NR 60.  THIS UPR TROF
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS CO THU NIGHT WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME
PCPN TO THE ERN MTNS. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE STATE BY FRI MORNING...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVR THE AREA ON FRI. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON
FRI...THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER KPUB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOS AND KALS DURING THE NEXT
24H. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH


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