Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271237
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...PLEASANT BUT CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVR CO CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AS IT EXTENDS FROM SRN
AZ THROUGH NW NM...CO...AND ON THROUGH NE AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS OUR CWA...JUST A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOW CLOUDS E OF THE MTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AFTER
15-18Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WE SEE INCREASING NVA WITH
UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE RIDGING. WITH SUN REAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPS ALOFT ON THE RISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WARM-UP
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH IS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE E AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLAINS DESPITE CONTINUED
WARMING ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG
INVERSION. OUT WEST...INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM...AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTDVD BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

GENERALLY MINOR METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE
LONGER TERM AS PRIMARY ISSUES REMAIN LONGER DURATION POPS IN
COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY
TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST SUPPORT A WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY TREND
SUNDAY(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) AS NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER SUNDAY AS
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT/PV VALUES DEVELOP OVER THIS SECTOR.

THEN A RETURN TO COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED
BEGINNING MONDAY AS STRENGTHENING 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERS
NORTHERLY MONTANA BY 18Z MONDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO KANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER THURSDAY.

INITIAL COLD NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WITH THIS
EVENT IS PROJECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH PERSISTENT COLD EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BASICALLY MOIST ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED AS CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN UTAH AT 06Z TUESDAY DROPS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES AND BASED ON LATEST PV
ANALYSIS...ANTICIPATE THAT PERIODS OF LONGER DURATION SNOW...HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED INHERITED POPS
OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND TIME-FRAMES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
REALIZED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME-FRAMES.

ELSEWHERE...OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND(WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST
TIME-FRAME). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

MANY INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
LOCATIONS(INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COLORADO
SPRINGS...PUEBLO...TRINIDAD...LA JUNTA...LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD)...WILL
HAVE CHALLENGES EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK(32F) DURING THIS 72
HOUR PLUS TIME-FRAME.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE CWFA.
FINALLY...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED
...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF PC FG...ESPECIALLY AT KALS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR FOR THE TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. CONTINUED VFR
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF SHALLOW FG OR BR FOR SNOW-COVERED AREAS EARLY IN THE
MORNING TODAY AND SUN MORNING. KALS MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VIS EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT FG POTENTIAL
SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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