Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22


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