Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 300145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING..WITH WINDS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BACKED SLIGHTLY AND AN
AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A COUPLE SHOWERS POPPED TO THE EAST OF I-
95 UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER THETA E AIR...BUT TONIGHT WILL BE
DRY AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS ONLY SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY
REGION WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING JUST SOME 700MB AND
ALTOCU TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
SHARPENS DURING THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL NC TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING
AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING SO
WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 88 TO 94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WITH A LONG
WAVE  TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
PATTERN REFLECTS A SIMILARLY RESILIENT LEE TROF...HENCE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...RANGING FROM UPPER
80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. WHILE MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN
THE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE MID
ATLANTIC AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

UPPER PATTERN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH EDGES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE TROFFING AND NUDGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A BIT...MOSTLY LOW 90S NORTH TO MID 90S
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE SURFACE TROFFING MIGHT ADD SOME LOCAL
CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO STRONGER...READILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES THAT
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST BEYOND NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT AT RWI WHEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUE-
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO.
OTHERWISE...A LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ON TUE.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...THU-SAT...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/22
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...26


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