Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 232054
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
354 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft will again build over our region today and
Friday. The high will shift east and offshore in advance of a cold
front approach that will cross the area from the west on Saturday.
Expect near record warmth ahead of the front with cooler
temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM THURSDAY...

Amplifying mid to upper level ridge will build east into the area in
the wake of the closed low moving off southeast Florida coast.
Strengthening synoptic scale subsidence will yield increasing
sunshine/solar radiation across the area, which in return will scour
out the lingering/shallow in-situ wedge in the form of stratus and
fog across the NW Piedmont.

With the erosion of the in-situ wedge across the NW Piedmont, the
warmth that central and eastern sections experienced yesterday will
spread to all of central NC today. A projected 10 meter low-level
thickness increase will support highs ranging from lower 70s NW to
upper 70s SE, which will approach record territory(see climate
records below). Lows in the 50s.

Cu field has readily developed over the Sandhills/Piedmont fall
line, in response to daytime heating and the weak sely onshore flow.
CAMs try to develop an isolated shower in this area this afternoon,
however with enhanced mid-level moisture moving offshore while
remaining capped aloft, expect little vertical growth and thus
will keep forecast dry.

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight with above normal
dewpoint residing over the area will result in rather low dewpoint
depressions to support the development of fog, possibly dense in
a few locations. Mild overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM THURSDAY...

Strong mid/upper level ridging and associated sinking air will
combine with strengthening southerly return flow and dry soil
conditions to make Friday day two of three of near record warmth
across the region. Low-level thicknesses Friday afternoon are
forecast to be aoa 1380 meters, which is 50 meters above normal and
more representative of late April/early May, as opposed to late
February. Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW.

Expect another warm night with an increase in mid and high clouds
from the west during the predawn hours as the front progress
eastward in the southern and central Appalachians. Lows in the mid
to upper 50s, which could challenge record hi-min temps(warmest
night).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

A cold front will cross the region on Saturday late in the day as a
low pressure system moves into Quebec. Since the frontal passage
will be later, this will allow high temperatures to soar no near 80
degrees in the southeast with low to mid 70s across the NW Piedmont.
Moisture with this system is limited but will be greatest along the
VA border. This is where the most rain could be expected which could
be up to a half of an inch in heavier showers but the majority of
locations will see less than a tenth of an inch. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the front as well as there will
be some instability but also a cap in the mid-levels to try to
overcome. Saturday night skies will clear out and the temperature
will drop significantly into the mid 30s to low 40s for overnight
lows.

Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry as surface high pressure moves
over the area with a warming trend for temperatures that will top
out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday but climb back into
the 60-70 degree range on Monday with coolest temps in the NW and
warmest in southeastern counties.

Guidance really begins to break down from Monday night really
through the rest of the period as differences in timing and
intensity of several systems affect the forecast next week. In
general, two systems are expected to move across the area, the first
a southern stream wave that develops into a low pressure system.
Second will be a low over the plains that drags a cold front across
the area near the end of the work week. As a result must keep rain
chances in the forecast from Monday night onward through Thursday
but wouldn`t expect it to rain that entire time. Instead expect one
shot of rain and potentially thunder midweek and a second near the
end of the week. Future model runs will iron out these differences
to give a clearer picture over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12 PM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: In response to strong heating and weak onshore
flow, a healthy flat cu field has readily developed across the
Sandhills and Piedmont fall line. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as
strong high pressure aloft builds atop the region.

Good radiational cooling conditions tonight with above normal
dewpoint residing over the area will result in rather low dewpoint
depressions to support the development of fog, possibly dense in
some spots between 06 to 12z. Any sub-VFR conditions that develop
Friday morning should lift quickly in response to another day of
strong heating. Winds will remain light and out of the SE to S
through tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect
predominately VFR conditions through Sunday. The exception will be a
very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold
front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will become
breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the west,
with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30 kts. The
next chance for precip and sub-VFR conditions will be late Monday
and into Tuesday as a weakening low pressure system approaches from
the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures

      February 23rd         February 24th        February 25th

GSO      73/1980                79/1982             81/1930
RDU      79/1980                81/1982             82/1930
FAY      80/1922                83/1930             85/1930

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH


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